Nov 12, 2019

Pete Buttigieg surges to the top of new Iowa poll

Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday has Pete Buttigieg leading the Democratic presidential race in Iowa for the first time.

The big picture: Since Monmouth's last Iowa poll in August, Buttigieg gained 14 points, surging ahead of the race's group of longtime frontrunners, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

  • Yes, but: Fewer than one-third of likely caucus-goers in Iowa say that they are set on their candidate — and most would not be disappointed to switch their support to another candidate before the first-in-the-nation caucuses take place on Feb. 3, 2020.

By the numbers: The results from Monmouth's poll (with point change from its August poll) ...

  • Buttigieg: 22% (+14)
  • Biden: 19% (-7)
  • Warren: 18% (-2)
  • Sanders: 13% (+5)
  • Amy Klobuchar: 5% (+2)
  • Kamala Harris: 3% (-9)
  • Tom Steyer: 3% (+0)
  • Andrew Yang: 3% (+2)
  • Cory Booker: 2% (+1)
  • Tulsi Gabbard: 2% (+1)
  • Steve Bullock: 1% (+0)
  • Julián Castro: 1% (+<1)
  • All other candidates received less than 1%

Of note: In six of the last eight Democratic presidential primaries without an uncontested incumbent, Iowa Democratic caucus voters selected the candidate who would become the party's nominee.

  • Since 1972, Iowa Democratic caucus voters have only twice selected the nominee who would eventually become president: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008.

Methodology: This poll was conducted by telephone from Nov. 7 to 11, 2019 with 451 Iowa voters who are likely to attend the Democratic presidential caucuses in Feb. 2020 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

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Buttigieg with 9-point lead in new Iowa poll

Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Presidential hopeful and South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has soared to the top of the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll of 2020 Democratic candidates, released Saturday evening.

The big picture: He's the first choice for 25% of Democratic caucus-goers polled in the latest survey — with a 9-point lead over his closest rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Buttigieg also topped a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday, where he's the favored candidate among 22% of those surveyed.

Go deeperArrowUpdated Nov 17, 2019

Behind Pete Buttigieg's Iowa rise

Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg speaks to voters during a campaign rally this month in Waverly, Iowa. (Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Rather than riding a swell of media attention or a viral moment, Pete Buttigieg has ascended to the top of Iowa's Democratic presidential primary polling by channeling a substantial fundraising haul into TV ads and a robust presence inside the state.

Why it matters: With $2.3m spent so far on Iowa TV ads, more than 100 staff on the ground and 20 field offices, Buttigieg's investment reflects his campaign's bet that Iowa's Feb. 3 caucus is key to his chances as an underdog candidate from the Midwest.

Go deeperArrowNov 20, 2019

Trump campaign attacks Buttigieg during Democratic debate

Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee and "Black Voices for Trump" sent coordinated mass emails during the Democratic debate Wednesday attacking Mayor Pete Buttigieg for his record on race and policing in his hometown of South Bend, Indiana.

Why it matters: As Axios' Jonathan Swan reported on Sunday, top Republicans are taking Buttigieg seriously as a potential general election candidate after his breakout poll in Iowa and his rise in New Hampshire. Several top Trump advisers have raised concerns that Buttigieg is more talented than Joe Biden and that he will be harder to brand as a leftist radical than Sens. Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

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Keep ReadingArrowNov 21, 2019