Rep. Conor Lamb after he won his race. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
A new Monmouth University poll puts Rep. Conor Lamb — who's served for just three months — 13 points ahead of three-term Rep. Keith Rothfus in Pennsylvania's 17th district.
The big picture: "The combination of dramatically better district lines for Democrats, the candidate resume contrast and an anti-Trump national mood give Lamb the clear advantage," writes Cook's Dave Wasserman. Cook Political Report shifted the race from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic."
- Wasserman also notes Rothfus is only the second GOP incumbent in the "lean Democratic" column, with Barbara Comstock of Virginia.
- Strategists often refer to Lamb's victory in the Pennsylvania 18 special election as a new playbook for Democratic candidates — this Monmouth poll backs up much of their thinking.