Rep. Conor Lamb after he won his race. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

A new Monmouth University poll puts Rep. Conor Lamb — who's served for just three months — 13 points ahead of three-term Rep. Keith Rothfus in Pennsylvania's 17th district.

The big picture: "The combination of dramatically better district lines for Democrats, the candidate resume contrast and an anti-Trump national mood give Lamb the clear advantage," writes Cook's Dave Wasserman. Cook Political Report shifted the race from "toss-up" to "lean Democratic."

Why it matters: This polling is the latest example that the new congressional map could help Democrats pick up as many as 11 seats in Pennsylvania, which is crucial to taking back the House.

  • Wasserman also notes Rothfus is only the second GOP incumbent in the "lean Democratic" column, with Barbara Comstock of Virginia.
  • Strategists often refer to Lamb's victory in the Pennsylvania 18 special election as a new playbook for Democratic candidates — this Monmouth poll backs up much of their thinking.

Go deeper: Open seats are more likely to flip than those with an incumbent.

Go deeper

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Politics: Ex-FDA chief: Pence campaigning after COVID exposure puts others at risk — Mark Meadows: "We are not going to control the pandemic" — COVID-19 looms over White House Halloween celebrations.
  2. Health: Fauci says maybe we should mandate masks if people don't wear them — America was sick well before it ever got COVID-19U.S. reports over 80,000 new cases for 2nd straight day.
  3. World: Spain declares new state of emergency — Polish President Andrzej Duda tests positive for COVID-19.

Senate advances Amy Coney Barrett nomination, setting up final confirmation vote

Photo: Xinhua/Ting Shen via Getty Images

The Senate voted 51-48 on Sunday to advance the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett, setting up a final confirmation vote for Monday.

Why it matters: It's now virtually inevitable that the Senate will vote to confirm President Trump's third Supreme Court nominee before the election, which is just nine days away.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
4 hours ago - Economy & Business

Wall Street is living up to its bad reputation

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Recent headlines will have you convinced that Wall Street is hell-bent on living up to all of its stereotypes.

Driving the news: Goldman Sachs is the biggest and the boldest, paying more than $5 billion in fines in the wake of the 1MDB scandal, in which billions were stolen from the people of Malaysia.

Get Axios AM in your inbox

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!