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Photo illustration by Lazaro Gamio / Axios

Politicians are often like kids: "Why did you hit your brother?" "He hit me first."

This is the simplest way to understand how the highly consequential debate over Neil Gorsuch will unfold.

Republicans will argue Gorsuch is a mainstream conservative worthy of confirmation. They will demand fair and speedy hearings and a vote to get him on the bench, tiling the court their way for at least the next four years.

But Democrats are livid Republicans denied a vote on their Supreme Court nominee for almost all of 2016, creating a new, arbitrary precedent of refusing to approve a Justice during an election year. This denied their party a Supreme Court majority, a huge deal for a party now fully out of power.

The pressure to retaliate is immense. Liberals want payback, and have very few ways to exact it: So Democrats might very well hit Republicans simply because Republicans hit them first — and block the nomination, leaving a 4-4 court. They can do this, under current rules, by locking arms and using the 60-vote threshold.

Literally with minutes of the pick, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) announced he would vote no. Soon another eight Democratic senators piled on, signaling deep skepticism or outright opposition. Watch for more to join soon.

If the rest of the party follows...

Republicans, in turn, will likely retaliate with the so-called nuclear option, essentially changing the rules requiring 60 votes for confirmation to 51.

(Click here for how the nuclear option works.)

Since there are 52 Republicans, this would virtually guarantee confirmation — and the holy grail of politics: GOP control of the White House, Senate, the House and the Supreme Court. We can't stress enough how much power this will give President Trump and his party.

And guess what they will do to justify this? Bingo: they will blame the Democrats, who a few years back changed the 60-vote rule for some federal judges and political appointees for their benefit. They will throw quotes like this in Democrats' faces.

So, welcome to the next round of payback politics. "You're an obstructionist!" "I know you are, but what am I?"

Go deeper

3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Scoop: Beto plans Texas comeback in governor's race

Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke speaks during the Georgetown to Austin March for Democracy rally on July 31, 2021, in Austin, Texas. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke is preparing to run for governor of Texas in 2022, with an announcement expected later this year, Texas political operatives tell Axios.

Why it matters: O'Rourke's entry would give Democrats a high-profile candidate with a national fundraising network to challenge Republican Gov. Greg Abbott — and give O’Rourke, a former three-term congressman from El Paso and 2020 presidential candidate and voting rights activist, a path to a political comeback.

Texas doctor says he performed an abortion in violation of state law

Pro-choice protesters march down Congress Avenue and back to the Texas state capitol in Austin, Texas, in July 2021. Photo: Erich Schlegel/Getty Images

A Texas doctor disclosed in an op-ed in the Washington Post on Saturday that he has performed an abortion in violation of the state's restrictive new abortion law, which effectively bans the procedure after six weeks.

Why it matters: Alan Braid's op-ed is a direct disclosure that will very likely result in legal action, thereby setting it up as a potential test case for how the abortion ban will be litigated, notes the New York Times.

Mike Allen, author of AM
4 hours ago - Technology

Axios interview: Facebook to try for more transparency

Nick Clegg last year. Photo: Matthew Sobocinski/USA Today via Reuters

Nick Clegg, Facebook's vice president of global affairs, tells me the company will try to provide more data to outside researchers to scrutinize the health of activity on Facebook and Instagram, following The Wall Street Journal's brutal look at internal documents.

Driving the news: Clegg didn't say that in his public response to the series. So I called him to push for what Facebook will actually do differently given the new dangers raised by The Journal.

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