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One thing that won't change with GOP health bill: Medicaid coverage losses

(J. Scott Applewhite / AP)

There's a lot of uncertainty about how the Congressional Budget Office will estimate the costs of the GOP health care bill the House passed earlier this month. But one thing that's almost certain: It won't change its estimate that 14 million people will lose their Medicaid coverage.

That's because the House didn't change the bill's Medicaid provisions since CBO analyzed an earlier version of the bill. It makes significant cuts to the program, which will knock millions of people off their coverage. It then pairs these cuts with tax credits for those on the individual market, which fall well short of what very low-income people need to afford insurance, experts say.

What we're watching: Whether the Senate shores up the tax credits enough to put coverage within reach of people near the poverty line and helps with their other costs. If it doesn't, coverage will remain out of reach for the poor.