Keith Srakocic / AP

Older voters are proving pivotal in the topsy-turvy age of anti-establishment politics — those over 65 years old were on the winning side in Brexit, President Trump's victory and the first round of the French presidential election.

Far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen beat centrist Emmanuel Macron 25.7% to 21.6% in the 18 to 25 age group. But Macron walloped Le Pen 26.9% to 9.7% among those 65 and older.

Bottom line: Youth unemployment has seemed to be a reliable indicator of political restiveness in the current turbulence, but it has been less reliable than senior citizen opinion.

Get smarter: The latest pre-election polls had Macron leading Le Pen by better than a 20-point margin. But if she makes a big play for senior citizens, and Macron's support among them slips, watch out.

In the Brexit vote last June, only 19% of those 18 to 24 voted to leave the European Union. But 59% of older Britons voted to leave.

In the U.S. presidential election, the age groups went the same way in terms of establishment versus shake-up-the-system — young people again wanted the status quo. But older voters prevailed: Among voters 18 to 25 Hillary Clinton beat Trump by a whopping 18 percentage points, but Trump beat Clinton by 8 percentage points among voters 65 and older.

The trend suggests that older voters will again be the bellwether in the second round of French elections on May 7 and in German elections in September.

(Emmanuel Macron's vote share in the second paragraph among those aged 18-24 has been corrected from 24.6% to 21.6% and among those aged 65 and older has been corrected from 40.6% to 26.9%.)

Go deeper

Trump tightens screws on ByteDance to sell Tiktok

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

President Trump added more pressure Friday night on China-based TikTok parent ByteDance to exit the U.S., ordering it to divest all assets related to the U.S. operation of TikTok within 90 days.

Between the lines: The order means ByteDance must be wholly disentangled from TikTok in the U.S. by November. Trump had previously ordered TikTok banned if ByteDance hadn't struck a deal within 45 days. The new order likely means ByteDance has just another 45 days after that to fully close the deal, one White House source told Axios.

Updated 4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m. ET: 21,056,850 — Total deaths: 762,293— Total recoveries: 13,100,902Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9:30 p.m ET: 5,306,215 — Total deaths: 168,334 — Total recoveries: 1,796,309 — Total tests: 65,676,624Map.
  3. Health: CDC: Survivors of COVID-19 have up to three months of immunity Fauci believes normalcy will return by "the end of 2021" with vaccine — The pandemic's toll on mental health — FDA releases first-ever list of medical supplies in shortage.
  4. States: California passes 600,000 confirmed coronavirus cases.
  5. Cities: Coronavirus pandemic dims NYC's annual 9/11 Tribute in Light.
  6. Business: How small businesses got stiffed — Unemployment starts moving in the right direction.
  7. Politics: Biden signals fall strategy with new ads.

Harris: "Women are going to be a priority" in Biden administration

Sen. Kamala Harris at an event in Wilmington, Del. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

In her first sit-down interview since being named Joe Biden's running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris talked about what she'll do to fight for women if elected VP, and how the Democrats are thinking about voter turnout strategies ahead of November.

What they're saying: "In a Biden-Harris administration women are going to be a priority, understanding that women have many priorities and all of them must be acknowledged," Harris told The 19th*'s Errin Haines-Whack.