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Photo: Benjamin Lowy/Getty Images

The Energy Information Administration's new monthly outlook cuts a lot — $11-per-barrel! — from their 2019 average oil price forecast. They now see Brent crude averaging $61 and WTI averaging $54.

Why it matters: Analysts are often playing catch up, and the big revision is a sign of how quickly the oil market can shift, as OPEC and Russia respond to the rise of U.S. shale and analysts weigh signs of softening global demand and other forces.

  • It also signals that EIA, for now, does not see the new OPEC+ production-cutting deal as putting much upward pressure on prices.

What they're saying: "Market uncertainty during November appears to have contributed to levels of price volatility for Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oils not seen in several years," EIA administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement.

  • EIA says the recent big declines in Brent prices stem from record output among the world's largest producers and concerns about weaker demand.

The latest: Crude prices are climbing Wednesday as the market responds to signs of declining inventories.

  • "The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, reported late Tuesday that U.S. stockpiles of crude oil had reduced by 10.2 million barrels last week," the Wall Street Journal reports.

Go deeper: EIA cuts Brent, WTI 2019 forecasts nearly $11/b amid supply glut (S&P Global Platts)

Go deeper

Updated 6 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Senate action on stimulus bill continues as Dems reach deal on jobless aid

Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Democratic leaders struck an agreement with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) on emergency unemployment insurance late Friday, clearing the way for Senate action on President Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package to resume after an hours-long delay.

The state of play: The Senate will now work through votes on a series of amendments that are expected to last overnight into early Saturday morning.

Capitol review panel recommends more police, mobile fencing

Photo: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

A panel appointed by Congress to review security measures at the Capitol is recommending several changes, including mobile fencing and a bigger Capitol police force, to safeguard the area after a riotous mob breached the building on Jan. 6.

Why it matters: Law enforcement officials have warned there could be new plots to attack the area and target lawmakers, including during a speech President Biden is expected to give to a joint session of Congress.

Financial fallout from the Texas deep freeze

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Texas has thawed out after an Arctic freeze last month threw the state into a power crisis. But the financial turmoil from power grid shock is just starting to take shape.

Why it matters: In total, electricity companies are billions of dollars short on the post-storm payments they now owe to the state's grid operator. There's no clear path for how they will pay — something being watched closely across the country as extreme weather events become more common.

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