Sign up for our daily briefing

Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Denver news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Des Moines news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Minneapolis-St. Paul news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Tampa Bay news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Charlotte news in your inbox

Catch up on the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Please enter a valid email.

Please enter a valid email.

Subscription failed
Thank you for subscribing!

Polls have closed and the battle between Republican Troy Balderson, 56, and Democrat Danny O’Connor, 31, will be over soon.

Expand chart
Data: Associated Press; Chart: Axios Visuals

Why it matters: Ohio's 12th district should be a dream for the GOP — it’s solidly Republican and overwhelmingly white. But it's considered competitive for the first time in decades. If Republicans can’t pull of a win in a race like this they should be worried about what’s in store for them on Nov. 6.

What to know: A Democrat hasn’t represented this area since 1980. President Trump won the district by 11 points.

  • Republicans have a two-to-one voter registration advantage in the 12th district.
  • Republicans and outside GOP groups have out-spent O'Connor 5-to-1 to help Balderson.
  • There are 79 GOP districts more competitive than OH-12, where Trump got less than the 53% he earned in this district in 2016.

If Democrats win, it’s another sign that their base is turning their anti-Trump energy into showing up to vote. And it’ll add to another unlikely victory after Democrats flipped seats in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania.

If Republicans win, they’ll sleep a little easier in the weeks leading to November knowing they still have a stronghold on the Midwest. They won’t be able to replicate their expensive playbook in every competitive race, but they’ll have a few lessons — like where and how to spend their money — that’ll come in hand throughout the country.

Let’s go to the data … FiveThirtyEight reports, since 2017 "the margins of federal special elections have shifted [toward Dems] by an average of 16 percentage points." If Ohio follows that trend, O’Connor would win by 2 points (a recent poll showed him leading by 1 point).

Bottom line: Republicans can’t afford to lose the open seat in Ohio’s 12th district to Democrats.

Go deeper

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
33 mins ago - Economy & Business

Biden's inflation danger

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal has economists and bullish market analysts revising their U.S. growth expectations higher, predicting a reflation of the economy in 2021 and possibly more booming returns for risk assets.

Yes, but: Others are warning that what's expected to be reflation could actually show up as inflation, a much less welcome phenomenon.

Ina Fried, author of Login
2 hours ago - Technology

CES was largely irrelevant this year

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Forced online by the pandemic and overshadowed by the attack on the Capitol, the 2021 edition of CES was mostly an afterthought as media's attention focused elsewhere.

Why it matters: The consumer electronics trade show is the cornerstone event for the Consumer Technology Association and Las Vegas has been the traditional early-January gathering place for the tech industry.

The FBI is tracing a digital trail to Capitol rioters

Illustration: Sarah Grillo

Capitol rioters, eager to share proof of their efforts with other extremists online, have so far left a digital footprint of at least 140,000 images that is making it easier for federal law enforcement officials to capture and arrest them.

The big picture: Law enforcement's use of digital tracing isn't new, and has long been at the center of fierce battles over privacy and civil liberties. The Capitol siege is opening a fresh front in that debate.