Sign up for our daily briefing
Make your busy days simpler with Axios AM/PM. Catch up on what's new and why it matters in just 5 minutes.
Catch up on the day's biggest business stories
Subscribe to Axios Closer for insights into the day’s business news and trends and why they matter
Stay on top of the latest market trends
Subscribe to Axios Markets for the latest market trends and economic insights. Sign up for free.
Sports news worthy of your time
Binge on the stats and stories that drive the sports world with Axios Sports. Sign up for free.
Tech news worthy of your time
Get our smart take on technology from the Valley and D.C. with Axios Login. Sign up for free.
Get the inside stories
Get an insider's guide to the new White House with Axios Sneak Peek. Sign up for free.
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Catch up on coronavirus stories and special reports, curated by Mike Allen everyday
Want a daily digest of the top Denver news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Denver
Want a daily digest of the top Des Moines news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Des Moines
Want a daily digest of the top Twin Cities news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Twin Cities
Want a daily digest of the top Tampa Bay news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Tampa Bay
Want a daily digest of the top Charlotte news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with Axios Charlotte
Want a daily digest of the top Nashville news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Nashville newsletter.
Want a daily digest of the top Columbus news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Columbus newsletter.
Want a daily digest of the top Dallas news?
Get a daily digest of the most important stories affecting your hometown with the Axios Dallas newsletter.
Sign up for Axios NW Arkansas
Stay up-to-date on the most important and interesting stories affecting NW Arkansas, authored by local reporters
Polls have closed and the battle between Republican Troy Balderson, 56, and Democrat Danny O’Connor, 31, will be over soon.
Why it matters: Ohio's 12th district should be a dream for the GOP — it’s solidly Republican and overwhelmingly white. But it's considered competitive for the first time in decades. If Republicans can’t pull of a win in a race like this they should be worried about what’s in store for them on Nov. 6.
What to know: A Democrat hasn’t represented this area since 1980. President Trump won the district by 11 points.
- Republicans have a two-to-one voter registration advantage in the 12th district.
- Republicans and outside GOP groups have out-spent O'Connor 5-to-1 to help Balderson.
- There are 79 GOP districts more competitive than OH-12, where Trump got less than the 53% he earned in this district in 2016.
If Democrats win, it’s another sign that their base is turning their anti-Trump energy into showing up to vote. And it’ll add to another unlikely victory after Democrats flipped seats in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania.
If Republicans win, they’ll sleep a little easier in the weeks leading to November knowing they still have a stronghold on the Midwest. They won’t be able to replicate their expensive playbook in every competitive race, but they’ll have a few lessons — like where and how to spend their money — that’ll come in hand throughout the country.
Let’s go to the data … FiveThirtyEight reports, since 2017 "the margins of federal special elections have shifted [toward Dems] by an average of 16 percentage points." If Ohio follows that trend, O’Connor would win by 2 points (a recent poll showed him leading by 1 point).
Bottom line: Republicans can’t afford to lose the open seat in Ohio’s 12th district to Democrats.