Aug 8, 2018

Live results: Polls close in the Ohio special election

Alexi McCammond

Polls have closed and the battle between Republican Troy Balderson, 56, and Democrat Danny O’Connor, 31, will be over soon.

Data: Associated Press; Chart: Axios Visuals

Why it matters: Ohio's 12th district should be a dream for the GOP — it’s solidly Republican and overwhelmingly white. But it's considered competitive for the first time in decades. If Republicans can’t pull of a win in a race like this they should be worried about what’s in store for them on Nov. 6.

What to know: A Democrat hasn’t represented this area since 1980. President Trump won the district by 11 points.

  • Republicans have a two-to-one voter registration advantage in the 12th district.
  • Republicans and outside GOP groups have out-spent O'Connor 5-to-1 to help Balderson.
  • There are 79 GOP districts more competitive than OH-12, where Trump got less than the 53% he earned in this district in 2016.

If Democrats win, it’s another sign that their base is turning their anti-Trump energy into showing up to vote. And it’ll add to another unlikely victory after Democrats flipped seats in special elections in Alabama and Pennsylvania.

If Republicans win, they’ll sleep a little easier in the weeks leading to November knowing they still have a stronghold on the Midwest. They won’t be able to replicate their expensive playbook in every competitive race, but they’ll have a few lessons — like where and how to spend their money — that’ll come in hand throughout the country.

Let’s go to the data … FiveThirtyEight reports, since 2017 "the margins of federal special elections have shifted [toward Dems] by an average of 16 percentage points." If Ohio follows that trend, O’Connor would win by 2 points (a recent poll showed him leading by 1 point).

Bottom line: Republicans can’t afford to lose the open seat in Ohio’s 12th district to Democrats.

Go deeper

Fadel Allassan

Judge rules against Trump policy limiting public comment on energy leasing

Photo: Joe Amon/The Denver Post via Getty Images

A federal judge on Thursday overturned a 2018 Trump administration directive that sought to speed up energy leases on public land by limiting the amount of time the public could comment.

Why it matters: U.S. Chief Magistrate Judge Ronald Bush's decision voids almost a million acres of leases in the West, according to The Washington Post. It's a victory for environmentalists, who tried to block the change as part of an effort to protect the habitat of the at-risk greater sage grouse.

  • The ruling invalidated five oil and gas leases in Nevada, Utah, and Wyoming, and affected 104,688 square miles of greater sage-grouse habitat, per The Associated Press.
  • Leases in greater sage-grouse habitat will return to allowing 30 days of public comment and administrative protest.

The big picture: From Axios' Amy Harder, this is the latest in a long and convoluted list of regulatory rollbacks the Trump administration is pursuing on environmental rules that courts are, more often than not, rebutting. With Congress gridlocked on these matters, expect the courts to be the default way Trump's agenda faces checks (unless, of course, a Democrat wins the White House this November).

Keep ReadingArrow19 mins ago - Energy & Environment
Marisa Fernandez

Your best defense against coronavirus

Photo: Adrian Greeman/Construction Photography/Avalon/Getty Images

Washing your hands is the best way to protect against the novel coronavirus, according to doctors and health officials, as the virus continues to spread around the globe.

Why it matters: Frequent hand washing can stop germs from spreading in a community, a known preventative for COVID-19 and influenza.

Go deeperArrow1 hour ago - Health
Kendall Baker

Major League Soccer embarks on its 25th season

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

As Major League Soccer begins its 25th season, the league is financially stable and surging in popularity, and its 26 teams have gorgeous facilities and rapidly increasing valuations.

  • It also continues to expand, with David Beckham's Inter Miami and Nashville SC set to debut this season as the 25th and 26th teams. Plans are in place to reach 30 franchises by 2022 — triple the number from 2004.
Go deeperArrow2 hours ago - Sports