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Barack Obama and Donald Trump at Trump's inauguration. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite / Pool / AP/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

There are 21 "Obama-Trump" districts in play in the 2018 midterms, and FiveThirtyEight's breakdown of who's leading in these competitive races shows Republicans could make gains in Minnesota and keep key seats in New York.

Why it matters: These races are less favorable to Democrats than "Romney-Clinton" districts, per FiveThirtyEight, but picking up some of them is crucial to controlling the House after November.

Of the 21, nine are held by Democrats and 12 by Republicans. Only five of them favor Republicans, 10 favor Democrats, and six are considered toss-ups.

  • The GOP has a shot at snatching two of those Democratic-held districts, per FiveThirtyEight's model. Both are in Minnesota (the 1st and 8th districts), which are open seats that Trump won by 15+ points in the 2016 election.
  • Four GOP-held districts, all in New York, look like favorable Republican territory according to this week's model. A combination of out-raising their Democratic challengers, winning their 2016 elections by double digits, and running in "some of the state’s Trumpiest corners," as FiveThirtyEight writes, puts them in a good position seven weeks out from the midterms.
  • Three are now "likely Democratic" — Minnesota's 2nd, Iowa's 1st, and New Jersey's 11th districts. FiveThirtyEight notes internal polling, House Ethics Committee investigations, and lousy fundraising gives Democrats the advantage in these races.

One more thing: FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a four in five chance of taking the House.

Go deeper

15 mins ago - World

Brazil begins distributing AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine

Containers carrying doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine arrive in Brazil. Photo: Maurio Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images

Brazil on Saturday began distributing the 2 million doses of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine that arrived from India Friday, Reuters reports.

Why it matters: Brazil has the third highest COVID-19 case-count in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The 2 million doses "only scratch the surface of the shortfall," Brazilian public health experts told the AP.

Sullivan speaks with Israel's national security adviser for the first time

Israeli national security adviser Meir Ben Shabbat U.S. Photo: Mazen Mahdi/Getty Images. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan. Photo: Chandan Khanna/Getty Images

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke on the phone Saturday with his Israeli counterpart Meir Ben Shabbat, Israeli officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: This is the first contact between the Biden White House and Israeli prime minister's office. During the transition, the Biden team refrained from speaking to foreign governments.

Biden speaks to Mexican president about reversing Trump's "draconian immigration policies"

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Ismael Rosas/Eyepix Group/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

President Biden told his Mexican counterpart, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, on a phone call Friday that he plans to reverse former President Trump’s “draconian immigration policies.”

The big picture: The Biden administration has already started repealing several of Trump’s immigration policies, including ordering a 100-day freeze on deporting many unauthorized immigrants, halting work on the southern border wall, and reversing plans to exclude undocumented people from being included in the 2020 census.