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Screenshot of NRCC ad airing on Monday.

The National Republican Congressional Committee will run a one-day, nationwide ad campaign today — one year out from the 2022 midterm elections, targeting Democrats over rising prices, crime and the border.

Why it matters: Results from Virginia and New Jersey state elections and recent polling has Republicans bullish about their chances of retaking the House next year, with the NRCC now targeting 70 Democratic House seats.

  • The ad will air Monday on Fox News, Newsmax and One America News Network.
  • It's a small ad buy, and will only run for one day. The committee is spending just under $100,000 on the ad, but it sets the tone for the cycle.

What they're saying: “Democrats’ weak leadership and socialist agenda have led to chaos at home and abroad,” NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer said in a statement first provided to Axios.

  • “Americans deserve better than the higher costs, open borders and nationwide crime wave that Democrats have forced upon them."
  • "Youngkin’s victory, in a state President Biden won by 10, shows that in this political atmosphere no Democrat is safe," Emmer writes in a memo laying out the GOP strategy.

By the numbers: 831 GOP candidates have filed to run for Congress already, more than in past years at the same point in the election cycle.

  • Nearly 90% of the NRCC’s 70 target districts have a woman, veteran or minority candidate filed to run, according to the memo, including more Hispanic candidates than ever before.

The big picture: The ad and memo build upon what Republicans have seen as winning messages, focused on inflation, rising crime and the surge at the U.S.-Mexico border under President Biden, as Axios has reported.

Go deeper

Biden's epic failures

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

In the two months since signing the $1 trillion infrastructure bill into law, President Biden has by almost every measure bombed big time on the things that matter most.

The big picture: Biden, who marks one year in office next Thursday, has never been less popular nationally, after personally lobbying his party and the public on Build Back Better and voting rights — and failing.

Ohio Supreme Court strikes down GOP-drawn congressional map

This Ohio congressional district map was invalidated by the state supreme court. Photo courtesy of state legislature

The Ohio Supreme Court has once again struck down a Republican-drawn legislative map for gerrymandering, this time for congressional districts.

Why it matters: Friday's decision invalidates a congressional map approved by Republican lawmakers last November.

McCarthy's plot to build the House of Trump

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Al Drago/Bloomberg, Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Kevin McCarthy is signaling he'll institutionalize key Trumpian priorities if he takes over as House speaker next year — aggressive tactics targeting undocumented immigrants, liberals and corporate America. 

Why it matters: He'd govern with an edge and agenda in stark contrast not just to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) but to Paul Ryan, the last Republican in the role. McCarthy's vision would empower populists and pugilists to complete the Republican makeover Donald Trump drove this far.

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