May 23, 2019

NOAA's 2019 outlook: "Near-normal" Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA satellite handout image captured Hurricane Florence in Sept. 2018. Photo: Handout/Getty Images

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 40% chance for a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season — June 1 to November 30, 2019 — determining a 70% likelihood of 9-15 named storms, of which 4-8 could become hurricanes.

The backdrop: This year's outlook comes after 2018's devastating season, with Cat. 5 Hurricane Michael hitting the Florida Panhandle. The average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 progress to hurricanes status and 3 turn into major hurricanes.

Details: The 2019 outlook reflects climate factors including El Niño — anticipated to continue and El Niño tends to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which can inhibit tropical storm and hurricane formation. Offsetting El Niño is a combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and a heightened west African monsoon, increasing the potential for hurricane activity.

NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins.

  • A 70% chance of an above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions.
  • The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70% probability of 15-22 named storms, of which 8 to 13 are expected to become hurricanes.
  • The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70% probability of 5-8 tropical cyclones, including tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

Driving the news: This season marks the addition of NOAA’s Earth-observing satellites, expected to enhance the hurricane forecast models used by forecasters to help users make critical decisions in real time.

Go deeper: The Atlantic Basins tropical storms and hurricanes in 2019

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In photos: Life in the era of coronavirus across the U.S.

Cellist Jodi Beder performs a daily concert on her front porch in Mount Rainier, Maryland, to help people passing by and her neighbors cope with the outbreak. Photo: Andrew Caballero-ReynoldsE/AFP via Getty Images;

The number of novel coronavirus cases in the U.S. has grown from one on Jan. 21 to over 312,000 by early Sunday, per Johns Hopkins.

The big picture: Roughly 3/4 of the American population is on lockdown. From practicing social distancing to the shutdown of non-essential businesses, here's how Americans are coping with the massive upheaval the outbreak has brought, in photos.

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of midnight ET: 1,202,827 — Total deaths: 64,771 — Total recoveries: 246,886Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of midnight ET: 312,076 — Total deaths: 8,496 — Total recoveries: 14,997Map.
  3. Public health latest: CDC launches national trackers and recommends face coverings in public. Federal government will cover costs of COVID-19 treatment for uninsured. The virus is hitting poor, minority communities harder and upending childbirth.
  4. 2020 latest: "We have no contingency plan," Trump said on the 2020 Republican National Convention. "We're having the convention at the end of August."
  5. Business updates: Restaurants step up for health care workers. Employees are pressuring companies to provide protections during coronavirus.
  6. Oil latest: Monday meeting among oil-producing countries to discuss supply curbs is reportedly being delayed amid tensions between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
  7. Education update: Many college-age students won't get coronavirus relief checks.
  8. 1 🏀 thing: The WNBA postpones start of training camps and season.
  9. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal health. Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  10. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

World coronavirus updates: Confirmed cases top 1.2 million

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, the CDC and China's Health Ministry. Note: China numbers are for the mainland only and U.S. numbers include repatriated citizens and confirmed plus presumptive cases from the CDC

The number of novel coronavirus cases surpassed 1.2 million worldwide Saturday night, as Spain overtook Italy as the country with the most infections outside the U.S. The global death toll has surpassed 64,700, per Johns Hopkins data.

The latest: The United Kingdom's Queen Elizabeth II will speak in a televised address on the coronavirus Sunday of the "disruption that has brought grief to some, financial difficulties to many, and enormous changes to the daily lives of us all," per the BBC. The U.K. death toll rose 708 to 4,313 on Saturday — the fourth highest in the world.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 3 hours ago - Health