Welcome to Axios World, where two evenings a week we break down what you need to know about the big stories from around the globe. This is our lucky 110th edition.
Kurz (L) and Merkel. Photo: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images
Austria’s coalition government has shattered in spectacular fashion after video emerged over the weekend of Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache discussing how a woman he believed to be a wealthy Russian could secretly funnel money to his far-right Freedom Party.
Why it matters: Mainstream politicians all over Europe have been flummoxed by the rise of anti-establishment parties, particularly on the far right. Kurz argued that the Freedom Party would be less destructive inside the tent, where they’d be forced to adapt to the realities of governance, than howling from the outside.
Nothing else they've tried has worked either.
Nowhere is the populist right more emboldened than in the U.K., where Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is poised to win three times as many votes as the ruling Conservatives in this week’s European parliamentary elections.
What to watch: Farage is just one of the populist protagonists in this week’s European elections.
The big picture: It’s not just the conservatives. “Social democratic parties [on the center left] have been hit even harder,” says Erik Brattberg of the Carnegie Endowment.
A new poll designed to test President Trump’s vulnerabilities on foreign policy heading into the 2020 election finds that economic pain from the China trade war, unraveling alliances and Trump’s relations with Russia are of particular concern to swing voters.
The big picture: Trump significantly outperforms his 44% overall approval rating when it comes to national security, on which 55% of all likely voters and 63% of undecided voters approve of his performance.
What to watch: 41% of respondents say Trump’s foreign policy is a reason to re-elect him, 45% say it’s a reason to elect someone else, and 14% say it’s not a consideration.
Xi Jinping on a propaganda poster in Hebei province. Photo: Greg Baker/AFP/Getty Images
"Google has stopped providing non-public hardware or software to Huawei, severely impacting the Chinese device maker's ability to create new smartphones and update existing ones," Axios' Ina Fried reports.
Why it matters: The battle over Huawei — seen in Beijing as the "symbol of China’s technological rise" — is more than just “a very negative sign of the prospects of trade talks,” Bill Bishop of Sinocism tells Axios' Dan Primack on Dan's Pro Rata podcast.
Apple is “uniquely vulnerable” to countermeasures because it relies so heavily on China both for production and sales, but Beijing’s response has to “thread the needle,” Bill says.
Meanwhile, Chinese state TV has been showing old Korean War movies as part of what Bill calls a “significant ramping up of nationalist rhetoric” since talks broke down.
What to watch: Morgan Stanley is warning that further escalation in the trade war will send the global economy toward recession.
Waiting to vote in Uttar Pradesh. Photo: Sanjay Kanojia/AFP/Getty Images
1. Exit polls in India show a resounding victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist BJP.
Why it matters: Modi’s campaign has been "heavy on ethno-religious dog whistles,” and “many fear that a victorious, emboldened Modi would seek far-reaching changes to India’s constitutional order," James Crabtree writes in Foreign Policy.
2. Australia’s conservative prime minister, Scott Morrison, shocked the world by winning Saturday’s election, despite the opposition Labor Party leading the polls for months.
3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky disbanded parliament on his inauguration day today.
A migrant caravan crosses from Guatemala into Mexico. Photo: John Moore/Getty Images
What to watch: A startling new study from Stanford University warns that the conflicts we've seen to date may just be the opening act of a much larger and more dangerous drama.
The report traces migration booms from Syria and Central America to droughts and social unrest.
Now a look to the future.
In other words: The combination of extreme weather patterns and growing populations of young people in poorer countries will combine to create more migration, more political anger and a greater risk of conflict within and among countries.
Smartphone-wielding Buddhist monks at the Borobudur temple in Indonesia during celebrations of the Vesak holiday. Photo: Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images
"Together we drain the swamp!"— One of the rallying cries of the 2016 U.S. election finds its way to Malawi, and the campaign of outsider contender Saulos Chilima
Thanks for reading — see you Thursday evening!