We've all spent a lot of time tracking the concerns of Senate Republicans like Bill Cassidy, Shelley Moore Capito, Lisa Murkowski and Rob Portman, who all have serious critiques of the House health care bill. But FiveThirtyEight's Perry Bacon has a smart, skeptical look at whether they'd really stand in the way if the Senate version is similar to the House bill.
Why they might not: Some of them come from states that Trump carried by big margins. Trump won West Virginia, Capito's state, by 42 percentage points. He won Cassidy's state of Louisiana by 20 percentage points, and Murkowski's state of Alaska by 15. And as Bacon points out, no Republican wants to be blamed for derailing the repeal of the ACA, which their party has been promising for seven years.
Yes, but: They have to consider all of that — but they also have to answer to voters who might lose Medicaid or ACA insurance, or pay higher premiums if the new tax credit doesn't give enough help to low-income people or the elderly. The possible consequences don't become irrelevant just because of the political winds.