Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, plus our best scoops.
Tonight's newsletter is 1,481 words, a 5-minute read.
Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
Conservative leaders are circulating data to White House staff that claims adults who vape will turn on President Trump if he follows through with his planned ban on flavored e-cigarettes, Axios has learned.
What we're hearing: "While parents may be concerned about e-cigarettes, the people who genuinely care about vaping as a voting issue so far outweighs the number of people Trump needs to win in 2020 that they are royally screwing themselves by doing this," Paul Blair, the director of strategic initiatives at Americans for Tax Reform, tells me.
Why it matters: If the FDA backs away from Trump's proposed enforcement policy, it would be the second time in recent weeks that political concerns prompted him to dial back government regulations.
Our thought bubble: There are four unsubstantiated assumptions about adult vapers in the case being presented to Trump:
Still, the math can't be totally ignored, especially in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Trump's 2016 win margins were so narrow and the number of adult vapers is relatively high.
By the numbers: More than 4 million people in swing states regularly used e-cigarettes in 2016, according to FDA-funded survey data published last year in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Behind the scenes: The White House scheduled a listening session with conservative groups last Thursday after receiving intense backlash from GOP leaders and industry execs following the announcement of the ban.
The bottom line: The political pressure points regarding the ban have gotten Trump's attention.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The Trump administration is eyeing a new trade deal with Iceland amid the U.S. trade war with China and tensions with Europe, officials tell me.
Why it matters: A potential deal isn't about Iceland’s economy, which offers little to the U.S. from a financial perspective. But the Arctic country is strategically located, and the president's national security team has emphasized the importance of investing in the region.
Between the lines: The discussions follow Denmark's blunt rejection of Trump's flirtations about buying Greenland. They also come at a time when China has sought to incorporate Iceland into the Belt and Road Initiative, and as Russia asserts its dominance in the Arctic Circle.
Behind the scenes: During a Senate GOP lunch last Tuesday, attended by Pence, Sen. John Kennedy strongly encouraged the administration to push forward with a free trade deal with Iceland, according to multiple senators in the room.
I asked several other Republicans senators whether they would support a free trade agreement with Iceland.
Worth noting: Iceland has had a free trade agreement with China since 2014.
Screengrab from CNN's "State of the Union."
House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff told CNN's Jake Tapper this morning that if Trump did in fact pressure the Ukrainian government to investigate Joe Biden and his son, then Democrats may have to impeach him.
Why it matters: Schiff has so far given Speaker Nancy Pelosi necessary cover in her efforts to tamp down the caucus' impeachment push — which the majority of House Dems now support.
Shortly after Schiff's remarks, Pelosi sent a letter to all House members urging acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire to turn over the whistleblower’s full complaints — despite the Trump administration blocking him from doing so. Maguire will appear before the House Intel committee in a public hearing on Thursday.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Democrats in swing seats are more comfortable supporting new gun restrictions than they were just a few years ago, but most still aren't on board with Beto O'Rourke's "hell, yeah" stance on confiscating assault weapons, Axios' Stef Kight and I report.
Why it matters: Some vulnerable Democrats up for reelection next year are nervous that too much attention is being paid to mandatory gun buyback programs — thanks to Beto — ahead of 2020.
Our thought bubble: Regardless of the divide within the party, O'Rourke has successfully shifted the debate so that expanded background checks or an assault weapons ban look more modest by comparison.
The big picture: Democrats' divisions on buybacks reflect America's divisions. Just over half of Americans polled by Monmouth University said they somewhat or strongly opposed the idea of an assaults weapons buyback program.
World leaders are flocking to New York for high-level talks at the UN General Assembly this week, which starts tomorrow with a climate change summit that Trump is expected to skip, Axios world editor Dave Lawler writes.
The leaders' speeches will begin Tuesday morning with Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro, followed by Trump.
A dose of drama was added with news that Trump would meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday.
Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
The House Intel committee will hear from Maguire on Thursday about the whistleblower complaint.
The Senate is expected to vote on the House-passed, short-term funding bill that would keep the government open through Nov. 21, per a Republican leadership aide, buying Congress more time to work out disputes with the long-term budget.
President Trump's schedule, per a White House official: