Nov 1, 2018

Axios PM

By Mike Allen
Mike Allen
1 big thing: The changes at stake in 5 days

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The collision of demographics, increased party ideology and broader trends like #MeToo has the 2018 midterms set to make history, and the point of that spear will be in the House.

Driving the news: Democrats have been increasingly diverse in recent decades, a trend that has gradually been matched with more political representation.

At stake on Tuesday:

  • The share of white men among House Democrats could fall to a record low of 37%, Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman told the AP.
  • "[F]or the first time, less than half the Democratic candidates for the House are white men, and the Democrats are poised to send the first Native American and Muslim-American women to the House." [AP]

Between the lines, via Axios' Alexi McCammond: The Democratic Party says more explicitly and specifically that they care about identity and diversity and representation, so they tend to have more resources to try to fix these imbalances.

By the numbers, per the AP.

  • "Democrats have nominated more than 180 female [House] candidates... But while voters could send more than 100 of them to victory, Republicans could have fewer women than now in their ranks next year due to retirements and tough races, according to election analysts.
  • "Overall, nearly 9 in 10 House Republicans will be white men when the new Congress convenes in January."
  • "House Republicans now count just over a dozen minority members... Meanwhile, African-American, Latino and Asian-American lawmakers make up almost half the House Democratic caucus."

What's next: Roughly 700 millennials, mostly Democrats, are running for the ~6,000 state legislative seats up in 2018, Axios' Khorri Atkinson reports.

Bonus: Pic du jour

Photo: Bryan R. Smith/AFP/Getty Images

Google employees in New York City stage a walkout today over sexual harassment.

  • "A Google Walkout For Real Change account that sprang up on Twitter ... called for employees and contractors to leave their workplaces at 11:10am local time around the world on Thursday."
  • Go deeper.
2. What you missed
  1. "Troika of Tyranny": National Security Adviser John Bolton has a new catchphrase for Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, along with nice words for Jair Bolsonaro. Go deeper.
  2. The U.S. made two big moves against China this week in response to Beijing's alleged government-orchestrated theft of intellectual property. Go deeper.
  3. 21st Century Fox executive chairman Lachlan Murdoch says the slimmed down "New Fox" will be buying more assets. Go deeper.
  4. Emails obtained by the New York Times show Trump campaign chairman Steve Bannon communicated with political operative Roger Stone in October 2016. Go deeper.
  5. Sexual violence has become a "part of ordinary life" in North Korea, according to Human Rights Watch, which spoke with 54 North Koreans who left the country after 2011. Go deeper.
3. 1 🇺🇸 thing

Simone Biles made history today.

USA Today covers Biles' dominance:

  • "Whether it was the kidney stone that kept her in the emergency room until 1 a.m. the night before qualifying, the expectations or simply a bad day, Biles wasn’t herself from the start."
  • "Biles fell twice, on vault and balance beam, and put one foot out of bounds on her first tumbling pass on floor exercise."
  • "But her huge advantage in difficulty carried her to the title."
  • "Even with the mistakes, it was Biles’ largest margin of victory at the world championships."

The bottom line: "Biles is so dominant, so athletically superior, the joke has been that she could fall two or three times and still win."


Mike Allen