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Situational awareness: "Jared Kushner will appear at the Saban Forum, an annual meeting of U.S. and Israeli leaders organized by the Brookings Institution... to talk about the Trump administration's efforts to broker a peace agreement between the Israelis and the Palestinians, according to a source familiar with the event." More details.

1 big thing: Here comes that tax bill

The tax bill's fate in the Senate could rest on Sen. Bob Corker's "trigger" idea, which continues to be negotiated as the chamber debates the bill, Axios' Caitlin Owens reports.

  • Why this matters: It means Senate passage of the bill isn't in the bag yet, although it's getting close. If the Senate succeeds with including the trigger, the tax bill's passage seems very likely. Conversely, if the trigger doesn't work out, it could imperil the votes of deficit hawks in the Senate even as other Republican holdouts fall in line.
  • What we know: The deficit hawks are still negotiating a "trigger" that would take effect and raise taxes if the tax bill adds to the deficit or falls short of economic growth predictions.
  • What we don't know: The other details.

Good news for Republicans: Sen. John McCain will vote yes.

Two quick sirens:

  • 🚨 #1: "The Senate tax bill would raise only $458 billion in increased revenue from economic growth over the next decade and will increase the deficit by more than $1 trillion, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. It would increase GDP by .8 percent relative to current law over 10 years." [Axios]
  • 🚨 #2: "Major companies including Cisco Systems Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Coca-Cola Co. say they'll turn over most gains from proposed corporate tax cuts to their shareholders, undercutting President Donald Trump's promise that his plan will create jobs and boost wages for the middle class." [Bloomberg]
2. What you missed
  1. Tillerson on the way out: The NYT says Rex Tillerson will be replaced in the near future, likely by CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who could be replaced by Sen. Tom Cotton. Swan breaks down Rex's situation.
  2. Democrats turn on John Conyers: Nancy Pelosi, who called Conyers an "icon" on Sunday, said he should resign after allegations of sexual harassment. Conyers' lawyer said he won't resign.
  3. Two more Al Franken accusers: Six women have accused the Minnesota Democrat of sexual misconduct in recent weeks.
  4. More than 25 million businesses are now on Instagram. The details.
  5. Amazon is promoting a new payment system whereby shoppers can deposit funds into their Amazon accounts via kiosks at local convenience stores. The trend.
  6. P.S. "Daniel R. Porterfield, Ph.D., President of Franklin & Marshall College, has been named the next President and CEO of the Aspen Institute. He will succeed Walter Isaacson, effective June 1, 2018."
3. Look at the Dow

The Dow closed above 24K for the first time ever today.