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Today's newsletter is 936 words — a 3.5-minute read.

1 big thing: Surprising deportation poll numbers

Share of Americans who say they support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants
Data: The Harris Poll; Chart: Axios Visuals

Half of Americans — including 42% of Democrats — say they'd support mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, according to a new Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.

Why it matters: Some Americans are open to former President Trump's harshest immigration plans, spurred on by a record surge of illegal border crossings and a relentless messaging war waged by Republicans.

  • President Biden is keenly aware the crisis threatens his re-election. He's sought to flip the script by accusing Trump of sabotaging Congress' most conservative bipartisan immigration bill in decades.
  • But when it comes to blame, Biden so far has failed to shift the narrative: 32% of respondents say his administration is "most responsible" for the crisis, outranking any other political or structural factor.

What they're saying: "I was surprised at the public support for large scale deportations," said Mark Penn, chairman of The Harris Poll and a former pollster for President Clinton.

  • "I think they're just sending a message to politicians: 'Get this under control,'" he said, calling it a warning to Biden that "efforts to shift responsibility for the issue to Trump are not going to work."

Zoom in: Trump has vowed to carry out the "largest domestic deportation operation in American history."

  • Americans typically aren't eager to deport immigrants who have put down roots in the U.S., but the poll suggests that dynamic may be changing amid rising fears about gangs, criminals and terrorists coming across the border.
  • Trump has fanned those fears at every opportunity, campaigning on false claims of a "migrant crime wave" and declaring that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country."

Reality check: Data doesn't show undocumented immigrants are more likely to commit crimes.

The big picture: The survey still found Americans strongly support immigration as long as it is lawful. "Illegal" immigration is what's giving people anxiety.

  • 58% said they support expanding legal pathways for orderly immigration, while 46% said asylum seekers should be protected if their cases are legitimate.
  • 68% said illegal immigration causes major problems in communities, while only 27% said the same about legal immigration.

Continue reading

2. 📈 Bigger down payments

Data: Redfin analysis of county records; Note: National data calculated from 40 of the most populous U.S. metro areas; Chart: Axios Visuals

Phoenix's median down payment reached $47,000 in February, up about 31% from just a year earlier, according to a new report from Redfin.

The big picture: Homebuyers are reaching deeper into their pockets on the front end to soften their monthly payments, Redfin researchers say.

Yes, but: The typical Phoenix down payment of 10% fell below the national 15% median in February, per the report.

Between the lines: Those who put at least 20% down can avoid the added cost of private mortgage insurance.

Reality check: First-time buyers across the country are still struggling to get their feet in the door.

  • First-timers don't have equity from selling a home to boost their down payment, and they're often competing against cash buyers, according to Redfin.

ICYMI: New Arizona program will provide up to $30,000 for first-time homeowners

3. There in the Valley

The "cupcake chapel" at the site of the former Asbury United Methodist Church in Phoenix, which is now owned by Phoenix Christian Preparatory School. Photo: Jeremy Duda/Axios

Congratulations to our many readers who gave us the correct location of last Thursday's "Where in the Valley?" photo — the iconic "cupcake chapel" at 16th Avenue and Indian School Road.

Catch up quick: Asbury United Methodist Church built the chapel in 1967, according to a 2002 article in the Arizona Republic.

  • It's probably best-known as the "cupcake chapel" but has also been likened to a rose, an acorn or the Imperial Margarine logo.
  • Phoenix Christian Preparatory School bought the property in 2017 and currently leases the facilities to the Maranatha Ethiopian and Eritrean Church, which uses the building as a youth sanctuary, superintendent Jeff Blake told Axios.

The latest: Phoenix Christian now plans to convert the old Asbury complex into a new preschool and elementary school campus because its current facilities are at capacity.

  • The chapel would be converted into a student reading room that would be adjacent to a new library, Blake said.
  • It's unclear how many of the other buildings would be preserved, but Blake said they'd keep the old sanctuary and possibly some others.

Explore the cupcake

4. Chips & salsa: Arrests at ASU protests

Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios

🪧 Police arrested 69 people for trespassing during pro-Palestine protests at ASU on Saturday, in addition to three others on Friday. (Arizona's Family)

🐘 The Arizona GOP selected state Sen. Jake Hoffman, who was indicted last week as a fake elector, and Liz Harris, who was expelled from the state House last year, as its new Republican National Committee members. (AZcentral)

🚆 A train carrying fuel derailed near the New Mexico state line in northern Arizona Friday, causing evacuations and the closure of I-40. (AP)

🏛 The Arizona Supreme Court declined Attorney General Kris Mayes' request to reconsider its ruling that reinstated the state's pre-Roe abortion ban. (KJZZ)

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5. Suns swept

Bradley Beal walks off the court yesterday. Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The high expectations that the Phoenix Suns started the season with are distant memory after the Minnesota Timberwolves ended their postseason with a first-round sweep.

The big picture: The Suns were in win-now mode after new owner Mat Ishbia's blockbuster trade for superstar Kevin Durant and a massive offseason overhaul of Phoenix's roster.

  • After two years of disappointing playoff exits following their 2021 run to the NBA Finals, Suns fans had high hopes for the "big three" of Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker.
  • But the team underperformed nearly all season long, going into the playoffs as a 6-seed.

Reality check: The T-Wolves beat the Suns 122-116 last night at Footprint Center.

Zoom in: Booker and Durant combined for 82 points, but the rest of the team had a quiet night.

  • No one else scored in double digits for Phoenix.
  • Beal fouled out in the fourth quarter with just nine points on 4-13 shooting.

🍷 Jeremy had a great seder with his family on Saturday.

🤯 Jessica is still processing "The Tortured Poets Department" more than a week after its release.

This newsletter was edited by Emma Hurt and copy edited by Jay Bennett.

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