2. GM strike has implications for 2020
United Auto Workers bargainers rejected GM's latest contract offer Tuesday, which means there's no end in sight to the 17-day labor strike.
Why it matters: The longer the work stoppage lasts, the worse Michigan's fragile economy becomes — with huge potential consequences for the 2020 presidential race.
The big picture: About half the 46,000 striking auto workers are in Michigan, which voted twice for Obama then narrowly flipped to Trump in 2016, and will be a key battleground state in next year's election.
- "If the strikes goes on, the economic ripples will threaten Trump's presidency," says Anderson Economic Group CEO Patrick Anderson, who has been studying the effect of local pocketbook issues on national elections since 2004.
Where it stands: The economic toll is spreading beyond Michigan as workers go without paychecks and GM loses an estimated $25 million a day.
- The strike is the first at GM since 2007, and the longest since 1998.
The 2020 connection: Pocketbook issues — like growth in income, inflation and unemployment — have a well-established effect on how Americans vote.
- While the U.S. economy remains fairly strong, Michigan has the highest risk of recession in the nation, according to Lending Tree.
What to watch: Trump promised Michigan in 2016 that he'd bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S., a promise largely unfulfilled. Faced with industry disruption and a looming cyclical downturn, it's not clear he can do anything to stop any of it.
My thought bubble: Voters may put aside their economic worries if the election becomes a referendum on impeachment; 33% of UAW workers voted for Trump in 2016.
Go deeper: Read the full story.