While economists predict that today's nonfarm payrolls report will show around 20 million Americans were unemployed in May, it's likely the real number is close to double that.
- Data show more than 37 million have applied for or are receiving some form of unemployment benefits as of May 30, meaning the unemployment rate was at least 24% and likely above 30%.
Why it matters: Traditional economic reports have failed to keep up with the devastation of the coronavirus pandemic and have made it nearly impossible for researchers to determine the state of the U.S. labor market or the economy.
How it works: The Labor Department’s surveys capture the period through the 12th day of the month, excluding job losses after that date. To calculate a closer estimate of U.S. unemployment Axios added...
- The Labor Department's continuing jobless claims up to May 23.
- Continuing claims for the newly created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program through May 16.
- Initial claims for both programs during those periods.
- Other unemployment programs, including newly discharged veterans and the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.
The big picture: Even these more comprehensive estimates likely miss the mark, as not every state is providing PUA figures.
- Plus, there remains an unknown number of people who have either not applied for unemployment benefits, have tried and failed, or who have applied but have not had claims processed yet.
What it means: While it's likely many Americans have returned to work, the increase in initial claims and consistently high level of continuing claims suggest the problem did not improve in the back half of May after many states began removing "stay at home" orders.
State of affairs: A survey of more than 88,000 small businesses by online business network Alignable from May 23–25 found 68% are open now, but 28% were offering fewer products or services.
- 3% of firms surveyed said they had closed permanently.
- Less than 50% of customers have returned, firms say.
- Only 47% employees are back on payrolls, with 7% more expected to be hired by the end of June.
What they're saying: Some business owners said they were "bleeding slowly" with increased operating costs for social distancing measures, masks and PPE for staff along with decreasing revenue.
- “We are thrilled that we are open again," Jane, a gallery owner in California, said in the survey. "We've had to reduce our open hours so that we can do cleaning. But we’re ready and excited to have customers.”
- “The wedding industry is almost non-existent," Maxine, a bridal and event coordinator in Texas, said. "People are too afraid to celebrate.”