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Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios
Tinder has been absolute gold for Match Group, which reported first quarter earnings yesterday that sent its stock up 12% to an all-time high.
Why it matters: There's been a lot of talk about the way millennials and Gen Z communicate and the growth of social networks like Facebook, Snap and Twitter, but no company has perfectly tapped the zeitgeist of young people coupling like Match Group.
Recent data from Pew Research shows:
Attitudes about online dating also are moving in Match's direction. The most recent available data from Pew shows only about 15% of American adults report having used online dating sites or apps, up from the 11% who reported doing so in early 2013. The most prominent growth has been in people 18–24, where it has nearly tripled, and people 55–64, which has doubled.
Don't sleep: The company also is diversifying globally, tapping into markets like India to further grow its reach. Match didn't break down earnings by country, but during the first quarter, it claimed a total of 8.61 million average subscribers — 4.36 million in North America and 4.25 million internationally.
Match's stock has been haunted by 2 developments over the past year. First, Facebook announced on May 1, 2018, that it was rolling out a dating app. Shares of Match fell nearly 10% the day after the announcement at Facebook's F8 developer conference.
Match also has spent much of the past 2 quarters fighting short sellers after forecasting fourth quarter financials below expectations in November and announcing a special dividend.
How'd that work out for you: Since Facebook's announcement, Match's stock is up nearly 95%, per FactSet.
Yes, but: Match Group is being sued by the founder of Tinder for undervaluing the company to avoid paying out stock awards to employees.
Demand for benchmark 10-year notes at yesterday's U.S. Treasury auction was the worst in a decade, data shows, following Tuesday's sleepy 3-year Treasury note auction that also drew lackluster demand.
Why it matters: The historically weak auctions have come despite falling stock prices and strong buying of safe-haven U.S. debt for much of the year, showing diminishing appetite among some investors.
It's worth noting that data on foreign buyers of Treasury notes is reported on a lag, so it's not yet possible to know whether diminishing Chinese purchases are responsible. However, foreign investors, especially China and Japan, have accounted for a declining share of U.S. government debt buys during the early months of the year.
Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
It appears increasingly likely President Trump will raise tariffs to 25% on Chinese imports to the U.S.
Driving the news: At a rally last night in Florida the president said China "broke the deal."
Why it matters: Economists expect the escalation to reduce 2019 and 2020 GDP growth for both China and the U.S. It could also change the outlook for the Fed, pinning down U.S. interest rates for the foreseeable future.
Futures markets show that Carpenter's assessment is actually quite generous. Investors have been pricing in at least 1 interest rate cut this year, and a greater than 20% chance of 2 rate hikes by January.
This won't just affect the U.S. and China: Federico Kaune, head of emerging markets fixed income at UBS, expects that the escalation will lead to further "artificial but helpful" global easing by central banks.
One big question still unanswered by Trump is how much of the Chinese products the U.S. imports he actually plans to hit with tariffs. The answer will make a significant difference, not just because of the impact to China but because of the way the administration had set up the tariffs to be instituted.