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🎙“If a thousand lives I had, a thousand lives I would give for the liberation of my homeland.” - See who said it and why it matters at the bottom.
The contrast between moves in oil prices and U.S. stocks has been stark. Even before Monday's once-in-a-lifetime fire sale in oil, crude prices had priced in at least some of the massive demand drop in the market while stock prices had recovered to their April 2019 level.
Why it matters: Stock prices are not reflecting the value of companies and the S&P 500 could fall hard and fast, in a miniature version of Monday's oil rout (when WTI crude futures fell from $17.85 a barrel to -$37.63) after a 25% rally since March 23.
Driving the news: This week is likely to bring another round of horrific economic data and poor corporate earnings, Bank of America Global Research analysts note.
The big picture: The market is responding to improved expectations about when the coronavirus pandemic will peak in the U.S. and worldwide.
Case in point: A survey from Bankrate.com shows 62% of U.S. adults have canceled plans or no longer plan to attend upcoming events because of COVID-19.
Axios' Amy Harder writes: Coronavirus-fueled lockdowns around the world are choking off oil demand, throwing the oil industry — which was already oversupplied before the pandemic — into historic chaos.
Where it stands: The price of oil makes up more than 50% of the price of a gallon of gasoline, but it takes several days for changes in the global oil market to make it onto gas stations’ billboards.
The New York Fed will update its index of 10 daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the quarterly GDP growth rate, today at 11:30am.
What it means: The weekly economic index "represents the common component of ten different daily and weekly series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production."
Of note: Unlike the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, the WEI doesn’t include any financial variables, like the S&P 500 or the Treasury yield curve.
Between the lines: The WEI has held around 2% since 2010, largely in line with U.S. potential GDP and real year-over-year GDP growth, but has been plummeting since Feb. 29, when it was 1.6%.
President Trump says he plans to temporarily suspend all immigration to the U.S. through an executive order. (The Hill)
A number of states are asking the federal government for interest-free loans to cover unemployment payments as almost half have seen double-digit percentage declines in their trust-fund balances since the end of February. (WSJ)
As Congress pushes closer to extending a second round of relief payments to small businesses after its $350 billion Paycheck Protection Program ran out of funds in two weeks, banks are facing severe backlash over their handling of the program.
Driving the news: A class-action lawsuit on behalf of small business owners alleges JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and US Bank prioritized larger loan applications over small ones in order to collect larger processing fees.
Yes, but: While much of the program's total amount went to companies who were able to show their operations needed $1 million or more in assistance, suggesting they were hardly small businesses, nearly three-quarters of the total loans given out were for under $150,000.
What's next: Banks are warning their customers that even if Congress provides an additional $300 billion by this week, they may not be able to provide loans to small businesses. They say the program needs closer to $1 trillion to meet demand, according to Politico.
Axios' Margaret Talev writes: Most Americans feel it would be risky to return to "normal" life just yet, and would wait indefinitely or at least for a few more months for the threat of coronavirus infection to subside, per the Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index.
Why it matters: President Trump has championed the idea that some states should reopen by May 1. But the latest findings from our national poll suggest most Americans aren't ready and worry it would hurt their health and well-being.
The results also suggest that the recent protests in Michigan and elsewhere against stay-at-home orders — which have drawn national press coverage — don't reflect how the majority of Americans think about the response to the virus.
Editor's note: I tried to get cute in yesterday's newsletter and wrote that the Fed serves at the pleasure of the president in the first story. That is incorrect and I apologize for any confusion.
Quote: "If a thousand lives I had, a thousand lives I would give for the liberation of my homeland."
Why it matters: On April 21, 1792, Tiradentes, or Joaquim José da Silva Xavier, was hanged, drawn and quartered for his role in the movement for Brazilian independence from Portuguese imperialism. He became a symbol of the movement and is viewed as a national hero of Brazil.