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Situational awareness: ADP's private payrolls report for March will be released this morning at 8:15.
🎙“If we fight a war and win it with H-bombs, what history will remember is not the ideals we were fighting for, but the methods we used to accomplish them." - See who said it and why it matters at the bottom.
Americans have become more optimistic about the state of their finances in the last week, a new survey from Axios and Ipsos shows.
Why it matters: Results show there's growing belief that the worst may have passed and that measures taken by Congress and the Fed have helped assuage fear that the COVID-19 outbreak will lead to prolonged economic calamity.
What's happening: "The stimulus news helped, along with the various payment forbearance, interest forgiveness, and eviction bans we have seen announced," Chris Jackson, public polling lead at Ipsos, tells Axios in an email.
Between the lines: Improved sentiment may have helped push the Dow to its best one-week gain since 1938 last week, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to their largest weekly gains since the end of the financial crisis in March 2009.
Keep it 💯: The survey breaks down largely along economic lines, with wealthier white-collar workers much more confident than their lower-paid and less-educated cohort.
By the numbers: A survey from PwC taken before the bill's passage found that just 16% of CFOs said they were considering laying off employees in the next month, a testament to the confidence of large, well-heeled firms.
Yes, but: "What we’re hearing is if this drags out beyond three to four months those commitments will become more challenging," he adds.
Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted March 27-30 by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,355 general population adults age 18 or older.
The coronavirus is spreading a dangerous strain of inequality, Axios' Margaret Talev writes.
Driving the news: Week 3 of our Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index finds Americans with less education and lower incomes are far more likely either to have to keep showing up at their workplaces — putting themselves at greater daily risk of infection — or more likely to have seen their work dry up.
Why it matters: "It's a tale of two Americas," said Cliff Young, president of U.S. public affairs at Ipsos.
Between the lines: Ironically, those with the most resources and the least exposure are significantly more likely to say their emotional health is taking a hit.
By the numbers: Pollster Chris Jackson analyzed the findings by five groups of socioeconomic status:
The White House and congressional Democrats are preparing a fourth round of stimulus with President Trump calling for a $2 trillion infrastructure bill. (Reuters)
Spain reported the highest number of COVID-19 deaths since the crisis started while the number of Italian cases rose for the second straight day, but the WHO says the outbreak in Europe may be approaching its peak. (Bloomberg)
The Caixin/Markit survey of China's manufacturing activity was 50.1 in March, better than consensus 45.0, and close to the country's official reading. (CNBC)
HSBC, Standard Chartered, Royal Bank of Scotland, Barclays and Lloyds all announced they would cancel dividends and stock buybacks at the urging of a British bank regulator. (Bloomberg)
Iraq plans to boost oil output by around 200,000 barrels a day as OPEC's oil production cuts end. (Bloomberg)
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Axios' Joann Muller writes: The coronavirus pandemic has had a big impact on working people, who are increasingly banding together to put pressure on employers and raise public awareness about health and safety issues they're facing on the job.
Why it matters: After years of declining union membership, a new labor movement is rising, amplified by the power of social media and fueled by concerns that workers deemed essential during the crisis are putting their lives at risk to ensure the well-being of others.
Driving the news: Some Whole Foods employees used an online petition to organize a so-called sick out Tuesday, demanding double hazard pay, a day after workers at Amazon and Instacart staged other actions.
Unionized nurses, flight attendants and auto workers have all leveraged their collective voices in recent weeks to try to influence policy and corporate decision-making during the crisis.
The intrigue: Social media is proving to be a new avenue for workers to organize.
Yes, but: Noisy protests don't necessarily result in lasting change, Kochan notes.
Context: The increased activism comes just as the National Labor Relations Board is taking steps to limit union organizing, according to the AFL-CIO.
Go deeper: The new labor movement
U.S. oil producers are cutting back spending significantly as the industry moves to crisis footing, Axios' Ben Geman writes.
The big picture: What's already announced — from both independent producers and giants like Chevron — is eye-popping, according to data from consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Driving the news: "22 U.S. independents have cut investment for 2020 by a total of US$20 billion, an average of 35%, and three by 50% or more," they write. The chart above shows some of those announcements.
Quote: “If we fight a war and win it with H-bombs, what history will remember is not the ideals we were fighting for, but the methods we used to accomplish them."
Why it matters: On April 1, 1948, the Big Bang theory of the universe's creation was proposed in "Physical Review" by the team of Alpher, Bethe and Gamow.
April fools! Hans Bethe, who said the above quote decrying the use of H-bombs (he was a noted critic of nuclear proliferation during World War II), didn't actually contribute to the paper. Ralph Alpher added Bethe's name because their initials were A, B, and G, or alpha, beta and gamma in the Greek alphabet — commonly used symbols in physics.
Best April Fools' Day joke ever!