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My colleague Amy Harder has an important dispatch from the UN climate talks in Bonn, Germany. She reports there are stark divisions revolving around the question of whether cleaner fossil fuels and nuclear power should help the world combat climate change.
Here's more of her item...
Driving the news: Trump administration officials and panelists, speaking at its only official event at this conference, argued the two resources need support. Meanwhile, hundreds of rowdy protesters insisted coal is incompatible to addressing climate change, called out the administration for revoking environmental regulations, and said renewable energy was the only path forward.
Why it matters: Studies by some of the most well-respected and objective institutions, including the UN and the International Energy Agency, say nuclear power and technology that captures carbon emissions from coal plants are essential to cutting emissions in a cost-effective way to the level scientists say we must. That's on top of huge advancements in renewable energy, energy efficiency and other technologies.
Quick take: The Trump administration should be given credit for breaking into the echo chamber that conferences like this often foster. At least three of the panelists invited emphasized that point, including a former Obama energy adviser, despite continued protests during the roughly 1.5 hour-event. Most of the protesters in the room focused on coal, though throughout the conference there were also anti-nuclear energy protests.
Go deeper: Click here for the rest of the story and here for more from Amy yesterday.
History in the making: Here's one way to think about the scope of the U.S. shale oil boom — by 2025 it could rival Saudi Arabia's ramp up decades ago as "the greatest increase seen over a sustained period in the industry's history," according to the IEA.
Check out the chart above: The baseline forecast for an eight million barrels per day rise in U.S. shale oil production from 2010-2025 "would match the largest sustained rise in production ever seen in an individual country, which was in Saudi Arabia from the late 1960s to the 1980s."
Why it matters: The comparison puts the growing leverage of the U.S. in global crude oil markets into stark relief and helps explain why Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers are struggling with how to adapt to the re-emergence of the U.S. as a key petro-state.
Don't forget about gas: "For natural gas...the rise in US shale gas projected from 2008 to 2023 would exceed the growth in gas output in the Soviet Union between 1974 and 1989: this was the period when the gigantic gas finds of Western Siberia, Urengoy and Yamburg, were developed for the domestic market and for export to Europe."
Big picture: The U.S. is already a net exporter of natural gas, and is poised to become the world's largest LNG exporter by the mid-2020s, IEA forecasts. The U.S. is poised to become a net oil exporter by the late 2020s. Bloomberg looks at the IEA's projections for the U.S. here.
Here's a few more takeaways from the IEA's World Energy Outlook 2017...
Growth: Total global energy demand rises more slowly than in the past but still increases by 30% between now and 2040 under the New Policies model, which looks at nations' existing and officially announced policies.
Climate change: Global carbon emissions from energy (which is the main source) increase slightly between now and 2040 in the New Policies scenario.
A changing mix: Check out the chart above. It shows the sources of past and future emissions growth and in the process illustrates the seismic shifts underway in global energy.
A few more topline conclusions...
No oil peak: Global demand for oil keeps rising in the New Policies scenario, albeit slowing down after the mid-2020s, reaching almost 105 million barrels per day in 2040.
Renewables rise: Renewables meet 40% of the growth of energy demand, signaling the huge changes underway in the electricity sector as gas, wind, and solar have gained as coal stagnates.
Don't forget: Standard disclaimers apply here because, well, it's the future we're talking about. And indeed IEA looks at multiple pathways, including a "sustainable development" scenario that's far more climate-friendly, which we touched on in the Axios stream last night.
Go deeper: Read the detailed executive summary here.
A new report from IHS Markit looks at the combination of the rise of electric vehicles, autonomy and "mobility as a service" trends such as ride-sharing — factors that will erode oil's stranglehold on transportation fuels by 2040.
One possible future: Add it all up and you have a "convergence of technological, political, and economic forces could fundamentally alter the automotive ecosystem." They summarize some of the findings in a blog post, and here are a few key points...
Why it matters: The report is another data point as policymakers and analysts try and gauge the future of oil demand and mobility.
Yes, but: Their outlook for EV's is more pessimistic than what another consultancy, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, has predicted. IHS sees EVs accounting for over 30% of new vehicle sales in the big markets they looked at.
Go deeper: The Houston Chronicle has a detailed piece on the new report here.
At a crossroads: Via CNBC, the shape GE's energy business units could change a lot. They report:
Latest in oil: The IEA's latest monthly oil market reports warns that the recent price increases fueled by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lower production in some areas may not have created a new $60 per barrel baseline for prices.
They note a downward revision in demand next year and other factors. In their words:
Reuters has more here.
Other tensions in Bonn: Bloomberg reports on a "schism" between the posture of U.S. diplomats and Trump administration political appointees at the UN climate talks in Bonn.
The State Department team is continuing work on more nuts and bolts topics of the Paris deal — like the particulars of emissions reporting and verification — while political appointees push a broader pro-fossil fuels message.
From the Bloomberg piece:
"While Trump has announced he wants the U.S. to leave the 2015 Paris climate pact, that will take four years under the agreement, and its negotiators — led by Tom Shannon, a career State diplomat, and Trigg Talley, a longtime climate negotiator — have been working in Bonn to push some of the same issues that Obama had pushed."