Good morning and welcome back to Generate, where we'll spend some time this morning taking stock of what Trump's climate policy upheaval means for U.S. and global efforts to stem emissions. Tips and feedback always welcome at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Two days after his big executive order, we're starting to get a better sense of what Trump's moves during his first two months to abandon Obama-era climate policies might mean in the battle against greenhouse gas emissions.
What's the global impact? The chart above distills analysis from the group Climate Interactive. They have explored how close (or how far away) nations' pledges under the Paris accord will put the world from the path needed to hold the global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
To be sure: Trump's actions hardly guarantee that the U.S. emissions trajectory will be hugely altered (more on that below). And he'll face legal (and political) challenges on some moves. Whether or not there are seismic shifts in federal policy, state-level policies, market forces and technological changes will play an important role in the trajectory of U.S. emissions.
The chart above, using analysis from the Rhodium Group consultancy, seeks to model U.S. emissions under two dueling scenarios: the Obama-era climate policies and the Trump administration following through on his executive order policies.
Why it matters: They project a gap opening up in a couple years, and soon it knocks the U.S. well off the path toward meeting its target of cutting emissions by 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025.
One reason why U.S. oil production is rising even amid modest prices is that falling operating costs — thanks to tech advances, lower service prices and more — are making wells more profitable.
A new survey of oil producers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas illustrates the trend (and check out the chart above) for companies headquartered in Texas and parts of Louisiana and New Mexico.
But it's not just onshore: The prominent consulting firm Wood Mackenzie says breakeven costs for deepwater projects have fallen too. CNBC has more here.
Interior secretary Ryan Zinke Wednesday took several steps to carry out the pieces of President Trump's executive order that deal with his agency.
Why it matters: The Interior boss made clear that he'll seek to promote fossil fuel development on the huge swaths of land that the federal government manages in western states.
Now it's really a trend. ConocoPhillips announced Wednesday that it's selling most of its Canadian oil sands assets (as well as some Canadian gas holdings) to Cenovus Energy in a $13.3 billion deal.
Joining the club: ConocoPhillips' deal comes after global oil giants Statoil and Shell have retreated from their oil sands positions in recent months, and Marathon Oil recently divested from the Alberta heavy oil projects too.
GE's CEO is reassuring his employees that President Trump's rollback of climate change regulations won't crater the market for low-emissions technologies.
Why it matters: the post is a response to Trump policy from a corporate behemoth at a time when Trump is casting his moves as pro-business.