5. Tight metal supply could crimp EV growth
Fresh warning: Moody's Investors Service warns in a new report that the near-term growth of electric vehicle production could be slowed by tight supplies of nickel, cobalt, copper and other key battery materials.
Quick take: The report, if borne out, underscores the hurdles facing efforts to greatly expand deployment of EVs, which are now a tiny portion of vehicle sales.
What they said: "Declining ore grades for copper, continued lack of investment in new mines and the time required to bring new discoveries to production will constrain metal availability and, ultimately, the metal sector's ability to meet growing demand from automakers for battery electric vehicle production, particularly in the near-term."
- It also warns that "significant new mine investment is necessary to meet rising metal demand."
One example: They see EVs reaching 8% of new vehicle sales by the mid-2020s, but warn...
- "Copper consumption in [battery-electric vehicles] could increase more than six times as penetration levels reach 8%, our base scenario. ... These demand levels would far outstrip supply, which will be relatively flat over the next several years."