Good morning readers. Today's Smart Brevity count: 993 words, < 4 minutes.
Situational awareness: "The Trump administration is preparing to significantly limit the scientific and medical research that the government can use to determine public health regulations, overriding protests from scientists and physicians who say the new rule would undermine the scientific underpinnings of government policymaking," the NYT reports.
And happy, happy, happy birthday to Neil Young, who alongside Crazy Horse has today's intro tune...
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
The release of the Saudi Aramco IPO prospectus is putting a fresh spotlight on a big question: the date when global oil demand will peak.
Driving the news: The document released over the weekend includes estimates that demand will grow until around 2035 before leveling off, but that the inflection point could occur by the late 2020s.
Why it matters: The timing of peak demand has big repercussions for the planet, and the strategy and future of oil producers.
The big picture: The prospectus makes the case that Aramco is very nicely positioned to increase market share in a world where global thirst for oil is flat or declining.
But, but, but: Bloomberg's Liam Denning connects the dots between the upcoming Aramco IPO and the flop of Brazil's big offshore auction late last week, which he notes is a sign of "expectations on the part of many investors that oil has entered its twilight years."
"Climate change concerns and impacts could reduce global demand for hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon-based products and could cause the Company to incur costs or invest additional capital."
* * *
Speaking of Saudi Arabia, a new Axios piece notes how the IPO is a lens onto U.S.-based companies' willingness to work with autocratic regimes.
Known unknowns abound about the Aramco IPO expected this year on the Saudis' domestic exchange, including what the offer price will be and just how much of the company will be floated.
But, but, but: The expected sale of just a tiny percentage of the company valued at well over a trillion dollars could be the biggest IPO in history. The chart above shows the rankings to date
Lots of environmentalists like Mike Bloomberg, but I'm not expecting a groundswell of activist support for his potential White House run.
Driving the news: The billionaire philanthropist and ex-New York mayor last week began flirting with a late entry into the Democratic field.
Why it matters: Climate change has long been a major priority for Bloomberg, who for years has poured resources into speeding the closure of coal-fired power plants.
My own conversations with activists in recent days are consistent with those pieces. There are a few reasons for the missing embrace...
But, but, but: If Bloomberg runs and somehow becomes the nominee, major environmental groups would certainly pour all kinds of resources into electing him over President Trump.
Go deeper: Why Bloomberg might not run
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
Top economists say the economic effects of climate change are just starting to be felt — and they're likely to start snowballing, Axios' Courtenay Brown reports.
Why it matters: Wildfires, floods, and other natural disasters could harm the nation's financial backbone, damaging vital electronic payment systems, causing bank failures, and disrupting the economy in myriad unanticipated ways.
Driving the news: The Federal Reserve — arguably the most influential economic body in the world — held its first-ever climate change research conference on Friday, where economists sounded the alarm about the toll the U.S. economy could face.
Among the findings:
Renewables: Per Greentech Media, "SunPower announced a plan Monday to split into two companies, one focused on the U.S. distributed solar and storage market and the other on overseas PV manufacturing — with China’s Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor to invest nearly $300 million into the newly formed manufacturing group."
Coal: Bloomberg reports this morning that mining giant Anglo American "dropped another hint that its days of mining the world’s most polluting fuel are limited."
Oil markets: Via Reuters, "Intercontinental Exchange Inc said on Monday that oil majors including BP, Total and Shell would be partners in a new exchange it is launching in the United Arab Emirates next year to list Abu Dhabi National Oil Co’s (ADNOC) flagship Murban crude grade."