Welcome back. Today's Smart Brevity: 957 words, < 4 minutes.
And RIP to longtime Grateful Dead lyricist Robert Hunter, whose words did glow...
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Global warming is greatly transforming the planet's oceans and frozen regions, and future emissions levels will dictate how much additional harm unfolds this century and beyond, a major United Nations-led scientific analysis shows.
Why it matters: "The ocean is warmer, more acidic and less productive. Melting glaciers and ice sheets are causing sea level rise, and coastal extreme events are becoming more severe," the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in a statement alongside their report Wednesday.
The big picture: The report sizes up the stakes for over 1.3 billion people living in low-lying coastal regions or high mountain areas, as well as animal species and ecosystems.
Where it stands: The report finds "widespread shrinking" of the cryosphere in past decades due to global warming.
When it comes to oceans, the rate of warming has likely more than doubled since 1993. Global average sea-level rise in 2006–2015 is estimated to be 3.1 –4.1 millimeters annually, which is "unprecedented over the last century."
Where it stands: The report takes stock of many harms already unfolding for humans and other species.
Ongoing changes are unavoidable, but the ultimate extent of the damage will depend on how much nations are able rein in rising greenhouse gas emissions.
What's next: For instance, sea-level rise will continue and could reach 30–60 centimeters by 2100 even if emissions fall sharply and temperature rise is held well below 2°C (the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement).
The bottom line: "If we reduce emissions sharply, consequences for people and their livelihoods will still be challenging, but potentially more manageable for those who are most vulnerable," IPCC chair Hoesung Lee said in a statement.
Go deeper: Massive change already here for world’s oceans and frozen regions (The Washington Post)
A new Emerson College poll suggests that the wording around carbon pricing could matter a lot.
What they found: Emerson polled slightly over 1,000 voters on Sept. 21–23.
Why it matters: Several 2020 White House hopefuls — including Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren — have endorsed some kind of pricing, though details are scarce.
But, but, but: The level of public support for a given policy is just loosely related to its chances of advancement.
"Saudi Arabia has restored its oil production capacity to 11.3 million barrels per day, three sources briefed on Saudi Aramco’s operations told Reuters, maintaining a faster than expected recovery after the Sept. 14 attacks on its oil facilities."— Reuters
Why it matters: The aerial attack initially took about 5.7 million barrels of production offline — or roughly 5% of daily global daily output.
What's new: There are emerging reports over the last day about the vague plans for the massive, multi-phase IPO of Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant whose facilities were badly damaged in the attack.
The intrigue: Per the Wall Street Journal, Saudi officials are discussing whether to eventually float as much as 10% of the company, in contrast to the previously planned 5%.
A new Dallas Fed note explores a metric of what the shale-driven U.S. production surge has meant for the wider economy.
What they found: "The share of the upstream oil and gas sector in the level of U.S. nonresidential fixed investment doubled from 3.4 percent in the decade before the shale oil boom to an average of 6.4 percent since 2008," it states.
But, but, but: That can cut both ways, because investment levels are sensitive to oil price movements.