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🎸 Happy birthday to Pink Floyd guitarist and leader David Gilmour, whose artistry shines through on today's intro tune...

1 big thing: The climate picture under Trump 2nd act

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Alon Skuy/Getty Image

A new analysis shows how a second Trump presidency could alter the course of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, Andrew writes.

Zoom in: The analysis from Carbon Brief, shared first with Axios, is based upon modeling scenarios from two prominent U.S. research groups.

It takes into account some, but not all, of Trump's stated plans to roll back Biden's climate policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act.

Why it matters: By rolling back many of President Biden's climate policies, a second Trump administration could lead to an estimated extra 4 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2030, compared with a second Biden term.

  • These extra emissions could in turn doom the 1.5Β°C goal under the Paris Agreement, the study finds, especially with the former president reportedly preparing to undo many Biden initiatives.

What they found: Carbon Brief concludes that under Trump, the U.S. would generate extra emissions through 2030 that would rival the combined annual CO2 output of both the European Union and Japan.

Stunning stat: Carbon Brief's report shows that the emissions path during a second Trump term "would negate β€” twice over β€” all of the savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies over the last five years" globally.

Reality check: While Trump has stated his intent to reverse Biden's policies, many of which are unpopular among Republicans, it is difficult to predict what changes he would actually pursue, and how sweeping they may be.

  • Much would depend on which party controls Congress and the outcome of litigation over regulations.

The big picture: A Trump win would conceivably dash remaining hopes of limiting global warming to 1.5Β°C above preindustrial levels, Carbon Brief notes.

What they're saying: "Over the past year or so, a bunch of different analysts have tried to understand the emissions-cutting impact of Biden's key climate policies, including the IRA and draft rules on power plants and vehicles," Carbon Brief deputy editor and analysis coauthor Simon Evans told Axios via email.

  • "Trump might be less bad for the climate than these figures suggest β€” he might only partially repeal the IRA, for example," Evans said. "But relative to another term with fresh Biden climate policies, Trump might actually be even worse than we've estimated."

Go deeper

2. Climate data companies await SEC disclosure rule

Illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios

Climate data companies say the SEC's final climate disclosure rule will offer much-needed certainty and will accelerate demand for their products, Axios Pro: Climate Deals' Katie Fehrenbacher reports.

Why it matters: The expected regulation today will be the latest global mandate requiring public companies to disclose greenhouse gas emissions.

State of play: One group of companies that welcomes the ruling are climate data firms such as Persefoni, whose software helps track emissions data.

Yes, but: A key global emissions metric is expected to be removed from the final draft.

  • Reuters reported in February that the SEC would scrap a requirement to disclose Scope 3 data, a metric that includes a wide range of indirect emissions, from a company's supply chains to users of their products.

Between the lines: Even if Scope 3 does end up on the cutting floor, data firms say companies are already using it to track emissions on their own.

  • "The train has left the station," says Matt Fisher, head of policy for Watershed, a climate data startup.
  • But the rule is certain to face litigation.

Keep reading

3. πŸƒπŸ½β€β™€οΈ Catch up quick: Amazon and banking

βš›οΈ Amazon Web Services is buying a data center campus from Talen Energy that gets power directly from the Susquehanna nuclear plant Talen owns and operates, Ben writes.

  • Why it matters: The $650 million transaction Talen announced is a sign of the times thing. Data centers are a growing source of power demand and, per some reports, AWS sees the deal as a way to help meet AI energy needs.

🏦 Via Reuters, "A United Nations-backed alliance of banks is proposing its members disclose more information on their commitments to tackle climate change without requiring them to coordinate action, in a compromise it hopes will prevent departures."

4. Muscle cars enter their electric era

The electric 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona. Photo courtesy of Stellantis

With the upcoming launch of the all-electric Dodge Charger Daytona, Stellantis is targeting a skeptical and perhaps even downright hostile audience: muscle car fans, Axios' Joann Muller reports.

Why it matters: Muscle cars represent the last bastion of the gasoline era. Other EVs have already hit the mainstream β€” even some pickups run on battery power now.

Driving the news: The new electric Charger made its debut yesterday in an online video channeling the rebellious spirit of brothers John and Horace Dodge.

  • Dismissing other "compliance" EVs built to satisfy government regulators, Stellantis said the next-generation Charger is still the world's quickest and most powerful muscle car.

Zoom in: The electric 2024 Dodge Charger Daytona Scat Pack delivers 670 horsepower, goes 0-60 mph in 3.3 seconds and runs the quarter-mile in an estimated 11.5 seconds.

  • Performance features include standard all-wheel-drive, along with a PowerShot feature that delivers a jolt of 40 extra horsepower, and selectable Drag, Track, Drift and Donut modes.
  • There's even a "drive experience recorder" that lets you show your friends how crazy you are.

Reality check: Lots of other carmakers have built performance EVs that are fast and fun to drive.

Read the whole story

5. β˜€οΈ Number of the day: 32.4 gigawatts

That represents the record-shattering amount of new U.S. solar power capacity installed in 2023, Ben writes.

Why it matters: The 2022 climate law is "supercharging" deployment, said Solar Energy Industries Association CEO Abigail Ross Hopper, whose group released the data with Wood Mackenzie.

The bottom line: Solar remains a small slice of the overall U.S. power mix, but it's growing fast, with last year's capacity additions breaking the 2021 mark by 37%.

6. πŸ’΅ Quoted

"Transition investing is specific and concrete. Clients know what we're talking about ... ESG as a category is a vague grab bag for many clients."
β€” BlackRock exec Mark Wiedman, telling the WSJ about the firm leaning into green infrastructure finance, while backing off pushing portfolio companies on ESG

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πŸ™ Thanks to Chris Speckhard and Javier E. David for edits to today's edition, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.