Welcome back to our quarterly Axios Future Trends, where the Axios subject-matter experts bring you this exclusive look ahead. I'd love to hear what you think: mike@axios.com.
Welcome back to our quarterly Axios Future Trends, where the Axios subject-matter experts bring you this exclusive look ahead. I'd love to hear what you think: mike@axios.com.
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
The Trump White House and the Trump campaign are preparing for the inevitable — Democratic gains in November, the start of the 2020 re-election campaign, and Robert Mueller’s verdict — by shifting into full war footing.
Here is the fall, foretold:
Trump's midterm strategy is informed by what aides tell us was one of their biggest lessons from 2016 campaign: Intensity of support is often more important than breadth of support.
Be smart ... They're three wars but one strategy: base, base, base and fight like hell.
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
In both the U.S. and China — the world's leading economies — e-commerce companies have stepped up their reinvention of retail, along with their threat to more and more industries.
Why it matters: More and more commerce is being concentrated within a few global companies, squeezing and forcing smaller rivals to accelerate their own adaptation to the fast-moving retail trends in order to survive. — Steve LeVine
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Republicans, Democrats and the health care industry are still feeling out the specific battle lines in the coming showdown over health care costs. But they all know it’s coming.
Almost everyone is facing higher health care costs in one way or another, implicating every part of the health care industry.
Democrats basically have their answer: Some form of expanded government coverage, which would use the government’s purchasing power to directly lower prices.
Republicans are still finding their positioning. It’s harder to blame everything on the Affordable Care Act with a Republican in the White House. And senior Republicans also understand that a lot of this has nothing to do with the ACA.
What to watch: Employers. For years, they’ve kept their own health care costs in check by pushing more onto employees, but there’s a growing sense they’ve taken that approach as far as it can go. When cost-shifting runs its course, all that’s left is to try to bring down the prices themselves — putting doctors, hospitals and pharmaceutical companies all on the chopping block. — Sam Baker
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
China casts a long shadow everywhere in the tech industry right now — from finance to security to manufacturing.
The three areas this tension will impact in coming months:
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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
The European Union's values, institutions and political establishment are all being put to the test.
The next few months will be critical. One thing to watch: will Trump's combative approach toward Europe breed discord, or solidarity? This week's NATO summit may provide a clue. — David Lawler
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The cable and telecom companies that for years have been content distributors are becoming content creators, upending the entertainment industry.
Why it matters: The distributors are gearing up to challenge the big tech companies (Hulu, Amazon, Netflix and YouTube) to become the big entertainment networks of the future.
The contenders:
What's next? The outcome of Fox's sale of its entertainment assets will mean a whole new life for Hulu — Fox, Disney and Comcast each own a third, so the winner will have majority ownership of a big streaming platform. — Sara Fischer
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Uncertainty is back in business, largely thanks to an ad hoc White House trade strategy that has left everybody guessing.
Bottom line: Business never has the full script, but it struggles to function without at least an outline. The hope now is that tariffs, investment restrictions and other trade policy can be settled by the end of summer — even if it's protectionist — so that everyone can adequately plan for 2019. — Dan Primack
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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
When Chinese president Xi Jinping convened top officials to set the strategy for the country's foreign policy he confidently laid out challenges and opportunities. According to the official Xinhua report on the meeting, Xi said:
"China has been in the best period of development since modern times, while the world is undergoing the most profound and unprecedented changes in a century... China enjoys many favorable external conditions to carry out work related to foreign affairs at present and in the years to come."
Between the lines: China didn't want a trade war with the U.S. but it increasingly views Trump’s moves to upend traditional alliances and the global trading system as further proof of the long-term decline of the United States as well as offering increasing opportunities for China to reshape global affairs to its advantage. — Bill Bishop
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Expect the European Union to play a lead role in UN negotiations starting in September on a treaty to protect the so called High Seas. While U.S. environmental groups have pushed hard for this agreement, which is slated to be completed by 2020, the U.S. under Trump has not exactly been keen on participating, let alone leading, any U.N. initiative.
Why it matters: At stake is the future of fish stocks and the ability of the oceans to recover from harmful human impacts such as overfishing and plastic waste. The treaty could provide a path to establishing mandatory marine protected areas on the High Seas.
Bonus space news:
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Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
There is a big loophole in cybersecurity: What if the devices and programs you tell your computer to trust can't actually be trusted? It's time to add the concept of supply-chain attacks to our list of vulnerabilities.
Why it matters: Last year saw a massive increase in supply chain cyberattacks where third-party components, either hardware or software, introduced deliberate or unintentional security flaws into victims' systems. In a glaring example, the historic NotPetya malware caused billions of dollars in damage using a malicious software update to Ukrainian accounting software.
Business and government are finally doing something about this problem.
Sign up for Joe's bi-weekly cybersecurity newsletter Axios Codebook here.
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
A trio of Trump administration agency policies have energy companies on edge:
Bottom line: Uncertainty is among the worst things for energy companies making decades-long investment decisions with expensive infrastructure. These administration moves risk all those decisions, both past and future, by companies up and down the energy spectrum. — Amy Harder
Sign up for the daily Axios energy newsletter Generate by Ben Geman and weekly Harder Line column here.