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China's Taizhou Port. Photo: Yang Bo/China News Service/VCG/Getty
In addition to the multi-day bloodbath on Wall Street, the U.S.-China tariffs war will cost 190,000 American jobs thus far and shave a smidgen of GDP growth from the economy, according to projections by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.
What they're saying: For months, President Trump has continued to gripe about the cost to U.S. workers of the U.S.-China trade imbalance. But, if Zandi is more or less right, the tit-for-tat trade attacks that he set off last week will cut close to a month's average growth in U.S. jobs and will slice off 0.14% from this year's growth in GDP.
While that may already look like trade war, Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer tells Axios that it's not. It's closer to posturing.
How long this will last: GeoQuant, a New York research firm that uses artificial intelligence, says to expect at least a month more of trade-induced mayhem in the stock market.
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios
The last few months have seen a rash of studies on a coming automation apocalypse, and analysts are moving to a few targeted worries about the future of jobs. Their thought process goes something like this:
Important background: In the 19th century, it took about six decades for U.S. wages to recover after the first industrial age automation of the 1810s. And the agriculture-to-industrial shift of the 20th century lasted four decades.
What's next: Karen Harris, managing director of Bain's Macro Trends Group, forecasts that the new automation wave could displace 2.5 million workers a year. That compares with 1.2 million a year in the agricultural upheaval from 1900 to 1940, after adjusting for population.
Key issue: Economists seem to agree it'll be wages, and not jobs themselves, to watch.
The 24 foreign scholars recruited under Canada's 150 Research program. Here are their bios. Photos: Canada 150.
Seoul-born Wendy Hui Kyong Chun, a professor at Brown University known for her work on fake news, is moving to Canada. So is Alan Aspuru-Guzik, a Harvard chemistry professor working on quantum computing and AI.
What's going on: They are among 24 top academic minds around the world wooed to Canada by an aggressive recruitment effort offering ultra-attractive positions, seven-year funding arrangements — and, Chun and Aspuru-Guzik said in separate interviews with Axios, a different political environment from the U.S.
Chun, who grew up in Canada and has lived in the U.S. since 1992, said she will launch a new "digital democracies group" at Simon Frazier University in British Columbia, which will take on the problem of the online echo chamber.
Aspuru-Guzik tells a similar story. He will become a professor of computer science at the University of Toronto. He will have a concurrent position at the Vector Institute, an AI research center where Geoffrey Hinton, the father of machine learning, is chief scientific adviser.
Elvin Lee, a teacher from Lawton, Okla., at a rally in Oklahoma City. Photo: J Pat Carter/Getty
The burgeoning U.S. teacher strikes suggest a potential picture of the dystopian future. Walkouts in Oklahoma, Kentucky and West Virginia are the latest example of a red state uprising against years of wage stagnation caused by tight-fistedness in public spending, writes NYT's Dana Goldstein.
“I expect teachers will be more willing to engage in walkouts,” she said.
Between the lines: In Kentucky, teachers say they have not seen a pay raise in a decade. When the legislature offered them 15% to 18% increases, they said it wasn’t enough when averaged over the void of years, write the AP's Sean Murphy and Bruce Schreiner.
Wages are going up, but the growth is shrinking, says Glassdoor chief economist Andrew Chamberlain.
By the numbers: Wages should be rising an average of 3%–4% given the tightness of the job market, Chamberlain says.
The bottom line: Chamberlain attributes the stagnation to poor growth in productivity. If worker productivity is rising as measured by what's made each hour, ordinarily wages should rise because they can charge more for their labor.
But hourly productivity is not rising, hence neither are their wages. “I don’t think anyone has an answer for that,” he said.
Amazon warehouse in Castel San Giovanni, Italy. Photo: Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty
Trump's attacks on Amazon could put the company under added tax scrutiny by foreign governments, according to a report by Wells Fargo.
Tweet attack: Ken Sena, a senior analyst with the bank, said Trump's multi-day Twitter rant regarding retail closures and his "perceptions of Amazon tax evasion stand to play well to some foreign and state governments who conceivably share the president’s concerns." Sena wrote:
Tesla's potential hit: Brian Johnson, an analyst with Barclays, says Tesla may become another victim of Trump's most recent tirades, in this case from his trade tariffs against China.
All the data Facebook and Google have on you (Guardian's Dylan Curran)
10 years after the crisis (WSJ's Cezary Podkul et al)
Digital forgery and the end of trust (Giorgio Patrini)
How 1,000 years of work has shaped humanity (FT's Janina Conboye)
The markets look at Trump and now seek risk (chart above) (Axios)
American under 35 have been more optimistic than those over 55 every year since 1960, when the University of Michigan began tracking the sentiment. No longer. For the first time in 58 years, older people are sunnier than younger Americans.
Buzz: Torsten Slok, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank, tells Axios that the trend goes two ways — younger people seem to have become more pessimistic, and their elders more optimistic.