Jun 24, 2020

Axios AM

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Situational awareness: A just-released New York Times/Siena poll has Joe Biden leading President Trump by 14 points (50% to 36%).

1 big thing: The pandemic's lost years

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

As the pandemic continues, we're already starting to see long-term effects of lost schooling, curtailed travel and shuttered businesses, Axios' Fadel Allassan writes.

Job losses have disproportionately affected women, resulting in a prolonged dip in their income and participation in the job market.

  • The female unemployment rate has reached double digits for the first time since 1948 — a swift reversal from December, when women had more payroll jobs than men for the first time in nearly 10 years.

Education: Research shows the shift to remote learning could set the average student seven months behind academically, according to a McKinsey analysis.

  • Racial disparity in access to computers and home internet connections could exacerbate achievement gaps that existed before the pandemic. Black and Hispanic students could face even greater setbacks, with Hispanic students losing nine months and Black students losing 10 months.

Young people graduating from college face health and financial effects from entering the job market during a recession — including lower starting salaries, according to Stanford research.

  • Graduates who start working during such times see their incomes depleted for an average of 10 to 15 years, according to the study.

Restaurants: Many restaurant owners who permanently closed their businesses said they will likely never return to the industry.

2. Obama stars at record Biden fundraiser
Photo: Biden for President

Two striking symbols — the border wall vs. America's first Black president — did the campaigning yesterday for candidates trying to turn out bases that are worlds apart, Axios White House and politics editor Margaret Talev writes.

  • Trump visited Arizona, a swing state where he's now in trouble, for a photo-op at his "unclimbable" border wall. At a church in Phoenix, he addressed a massive mask-free gathering of young supporters at an indoor hall.

In the evening, President Obama joined a Biden campaign event for the first time — a virtual fundraiser that instantly became the campaign's biggest single haul, with 175,000 guests and $7.6 million in donations.

  • "Love you," each man told one another.

Obama recalled that as president, he sought to pressure foreign leaders to allow freedom of the press and freedom of assembly. But now, he said:

  • "Folks like Putin or Kim Jong-un or President Xi in China, they say: 'Well, obviously we don’t have any pressure. We don’t have to do anything about the dissidents we’ve imprisoned or the ethnic groups we’ve discriminated against or the crackdowns on dissent, because there’s nobody who's going to call us to account.'"

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President Trump signed a plaque yesterday at the border wall in San Luis, Ariz. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images
3. Exclusive: Trump's wakeup call

Jason Miller talks to reporters at Trump Tower on Nov. 16, 2016. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

Besides Fox News and the CIA, President Trump now has another morning briefer, Republican sources tell me: Jason Miller, a new top official at Trump's campaign, gives him a fill on what's driving the political day.

  • Miller was a Trump whisperer during the 2016 campaign: The two had early-morning conversations about the Trump Tower team's battle plan.
  • Miller listens as much as he talks. He reads Trump’s verbal cues, and knows how to use gossip and news to get Trump's thinking about different issues.
  • He then translates Trump-speak into campaign action.

Why it matters: Trump, who prizes familiarity, is comfortable with Miller.

  • Aides hope that if Trump is reassured that his team has a plan, he'll be less likely to try to take every element of the campaign into his own hands.

Miller, 45, joined the campaign this month as a senior adviser and is one of the most powerful officials, directing strategy while campaign manager Brad Parscale runs the campaign machine.

  • Miller has worked in Republican politics for 25 years, including for Rudy Giuliani and Ted Cruz. He left Trump for the private sector at the inauguration, but remained a reliable ally on TV and radio.
  • Miller has weathered controversy: In June, he left Teneo after attacking House Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler on Twitter. After Trump’s election, Miller was named White House communications director but backed out.

On recent mornings, Miller's prescriptions have ricocheted around Trumpworld through text messages he blasts to conservative influencers and Trump surrogates, including Trump's message for the day, planned hits on Biden and "Quick Bites" from coverage.

  • A recent topic: John Bolton.

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4. Pic du jour
Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Pool/Getty Images

Dr. Anthony Fauci wears a Washington Nationals mask for testimony yesterday before the House Energy and Commerce Committee.

What you need to know about the pandemic, from health care editor Sam Baker:

  • There's no question that the outbreak is getting worse in the U.S.
  • Cases are rising — in some states, to their highest levels yet.
  • Hospitalizations are rising.
  • Deaths have topped 120,000.

Why it matters: This is not just the effects of more testing. It's a worsening outbreak, and we are doing too little to control it.

5. Siberia's days of fire
This photo, taken last Friday, shows the land surface temperature in the Siberia region of Russia. Photo: ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service via AP

Parts of the Arctic are feverish and on fire, worrying scientists about what that means for the rest of the world, AP reports.

  • The thermometer hit a likely record of 38 degrees Celsius (100.4 degrees Fahrenheit) in the Russian Arctic town of Verkhoyansk on Saturday.
  • Why it matters: Such prolonged Siberian warmth hasn't been seen for thousands of years.

Climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck, dean of the University of Michigan environmental school, said in an email:

  • "The Arctic is figuratively and literally on fire — it's warming much faster than we thought, ... leading to a rapid meltdown and increase in wildfires."
6. 🗳️ About last night: Trump's twin losses
Madison Cawthorn speaks to supporters last night in Hendersonville, N.C. Photo: Patrick Sebastian/Cawthorn campaign via AP

Voters rebuffed President Trump by nominating Republicans he opposed for House seats in North Carolina and Kentucky, AP reports.

  • In western North Carolina, GOP voters picked 24-year-old investor Madison Cawthorn over Trump-backed real estate agent Lynda Bennett. The runoff was for the seat vacated by Mark Meadows, who resigned to become Trump's chief of staff, and joined his new boss in backing Bennett.
  • Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, a libertarian-minded maverick who often clashes with GOP leaders, was renominated for a sixth House term. Trump savaged Massie in March as a "disaster for America."

What's next: Results in higher-profile races in Kentucky and New York faced days of delay as swamped officials count mountains of mail-in ballots.

7. Scoop: Trump's smoke-him-out strategy
AP White House reporter Jonathan Lemire tweeted this photo yesterday from President Trump's event at a Phoenix megachurch, with no social distancing and few masks.

President Trump's campaign, recognizing that he'll lose to himself if November's election is a referendum on him, is trying to flush Joe Biden into open combat by challenging him to more debates, taunting him as "Hidin' Biden," and posing a "Question of the day for Joe Biden."

  • Why it matters: Expect more of this. The Trump campaign is getting very frustrated that Biden is keeping a low profile and letting Trump give himself uppercuts every day.
  • An upcoming question of the day: "When's your first rally going to be?"

TJ Ducklo, the Biden campaign's national press secretary, replied:

  • "The Trump campaign is frustrated because every single day Joe Biden is making a case to the American people for steady, experienced, compassionate leadership that is in stark contrast to the erratic, divisive and cruel message coming from Donald Trump's White House."

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8. Bye, bye Segway

In 2003, President George W. Bush and former President George H.W. Bush ride Segways in Kennebunkport, Maine. Photo: John Mottern/Getty Images

The Segway, the two-wheeled personal transporter touted as a revolution back in 1999, is ending production, AP reports.

  • The Segway PT, popular with tourists and police officers but also known for high-profile crashes, will be retired July 15, the company said.
9. 🏒 In one year, WinRed transforms GOP fundraising
Via WinRed

WinRed, the online Republican fundraising platform designed to counter Democrats' ActBlue, has raised $450 million since launching a year ago today.

  • Why it matters: WinRed takes an ecumenical approach, sweeping in everyone from the Trump campaign to congressional leaders to GOP renegades.

By the numbers:

  • 850 campaigns currently raise money through the platform.
  • 100% of state Republican parties and 85% of House and Senate members use WinRed.
  • Average donation: $38.
  • 370,000 donors were converted to volunteers.
  • The 24-hour record: $14 million on June 14, President Trump's birthday.

WinRed President Gerrit Lansing told me: "Everywhere around us, the pace of change is accelerating. And very few people are prepared for the amount of change coming to politics. WinRed is a ... platform designed for this new era."

10. 1 free thing (through Sunday)
In 1989, Spike Lee and Danny Aiello pose in New York on the set of "Do the Right Thing," as other cast members look in through a window. Photo: Anthony Barboza/Getty Images

Universal Pictures is offering "Do the Right Thing" — director Spike Lee's 1989 film about racism, protests, police brutality and a New York neighborhood in turmoil — free this week on Amazon, Apple, Charter, Comcast, Google, Redbox, Vudu and other platforms.

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