Even with unprecedented job losses and a bruising recession, investors and betting markets are still putting their money on President Trump to win re-election in November, Axios Markets editor Dion Rabouin writes.
Joe Biden holds a sizable lead in most national and individual swing state polls.
- And Trump hasn't gotten the bump that often comes from national catastrophes, as Americans typically rally around the flag and the president.
But money managers still expect Trump to keep the White House in November.
- In a late April survey of U.S.-based investors with at least $1 million of assets, UBS found that 53% said they planned to vote for Biden.
- But 52% think Trump will win.
The world's most popular betting destinations still show Trump as the clear favorite.
- The RealClearPolitics average of betting websites gives the advantage to Trump with an average spread of 8.2 as of last night.
- Casino sportsbooks are paying around $83 for winning bets on Trump vs. $135 for winning bets on Biden, making Biden the unequivocal underdog, according to the gambling site Bovada.
What we're hearing: The expectation for Trump to triumph seems to largely reflect optimism about the economy once various state and local lockdown orders end, economists say.
- "We can’t expect that the economy is going to be in very good shape, although the trajectory ought to be pretty positive by November," Steve Skancke, who worked in Treasury, NSC and economic policy jobs in the Nixon, Ford, Carter and Reagan administrations, tells Axios.
- As November approaches, it's "more than likely we’re going to see a positive stock market and there will be positive job growth," adds Skancke, now chief economic advisor at wealth manager Keel Point.
The bottom line: "The wild card obviously is the virus and the [potential] vaccine," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Investor Service, tells Axios.
- "And that’s a very significant wild card both on the downside and the upside."
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