Good morning. It's the first Monday in October: the Supreme Court begins its term.
Image: H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty. Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
The cost: Researchers have projected that closing the racial wealth gap could net the U.S. economy between $1.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion by 2028.
Details: African American workers are at risk of exceptional job losses for three key reasons.
Between the lines: Researchers found "more than 200 counties, largely concentrated in the Southeast and Midwest, where a decline in African American net job growth could occur alongside an increase in job growth for white employees."
The bottom line, from Kaveh Waddell, co-author of Axios Future: Preparations for the future of work, like job training programs and potential new safety nets, will need to be tailored in part to the groups who will bear the brunt of the changes.
U.S. military vehicles travel down a main road in northeast Syria today. Photo: ANHA via AP
U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led forces said American troops began pulling back today from the border in northeast Syria ahead of an expected Turkish invasion, AP reports.
Why it matters, from Axios White House editor Margaret Talev:
Former national security adviser John Bolton insisted months ago that the U.S. drawdown would need an agreement by Turks that protected America's Kurdish partners. But Turkey bristled at that — and Bolton is no longer in his job.
Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
A single tweet from Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey escalated into a geopolitical crisis over the weekend, pitting America's democratic ideals and the NBA's progressive brand against the influence of Chinese money, writes Axios Sports editor Kendall Baker.
The backdrop: On Friday night, Morey tweeted an image that read "Fight for Freedom. Stand for Hong Kong" in reference to the pro-democracy protests.
The backlash: The Chinese government, the Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) and multiple Chinese businesses have severed ties with the Rockets.
The bottom line: A high-stakes showdown with a foreign government is far beyond anything the NBA has had to navigate in the past, but there's no running from this — and its response will speak volumes.
"For the first time on record, the 400 wealthiest Americans last year paid a lower total tax rate — spanning federal, state and local taxes — than any other income group," N.Y. Times op-ed columnist David Leonhardt writes.
The data is from what Leonhardt calls the most important book on government policy that he's read in a long time — "The Triumph of Injustice," by UC Berkeley economics professors Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, out Oct. 15.
Why you need to read Sneak Peek, the Sunday evening newsletter from Axios' Jonathan Swan and Alayna Treene:
Instead of writing about carbon-footprint reduction from afar, Axios' Amy Harder is experiencing it firsthand for a series of "Harder Line" columns:
She signed up with Arcadia Power, a D.C.-based startup founded in 2014.
Arcadia Power’s main green offer is 50% wind energy (via renewable energy certificates) for free by signing up, which she chose.
The nation's business economists think President Trump's trade war with China will contribute to a sharp slowdown in economic growth this year and next, AP's Marty Crutsinger reports.
51 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics found they expect growth slow to 2.3% this year from 2.9% in 2018.
The bottom line: The forecasters estimate just a 7% likelihood of a recession starting this year, a 24% likelihood by mid-2020 and 47% by the end of 2020.
The New Yorker posts the first of three excerpts from Ronan Farrow's "Catch and Kill: Lies, Spies, and a Conspiracy to Protect Predators," out Oct. 15:
In October of 2016, as reporters circled allegations of sexual assault and harassment against the film producer Harvey Weinstein, Weinstein and his lawyers hired Black Cube, an Israeli private-intelligence agency. ...
During the time that I was reporting [on Weinstein, Black Cube operatives Roman] Khaykin and [Igor] Ostrovskiy staked out my apartment building and tailed me to the offices of NBC, where I worked as a correspondent, and later to the offices of The New Yorker. At one point, Khaykin claimed to have successfully used my cell phone to track my location. ...
The two men also performed counter-surveillance, making sure that Black Cube operatives weren’t followed to meetings, which often took place in hotel lobbies or upscale restaurants in Manhattan. At those meetings, Ostrovskiy would order meals — a perk of the job — while discreetly eavesdropping and recording the encounters.
Go deeper: "Supreme Court set to weigh in on 2020's most polarizing issues," by Axios' Sam Baker.
Despite ramped up theater security and anxiety about violent themes, audiences flocked to the R-rated "Joker" this weekend, resulting in a record October opening, AP reports.
Why it matters: Viewers weren't deterred by fears the film might inspire violence.
📱 Thanks for reading Axios AM. Please invite your friends to sign up here.