The Congressional Budget Office, the official budget scorekeeper for Congress, just handed Democrats two powerful new arguments against Obamacare repeal. In a new estimate of what would happen right away, here's what the budget office said:

  • 18 million uninsured in the first year after passage of the repeal bill
  • Premiums would increase by 20 to 25 percent
  • Both would get worse two years later, after Medicaid expansion and Obamacare subsidies go away

Yes, but: This is an estimate of what would happen if Congress re-passed the "reconciliation bill" it passed last year — the one President Obama vetoed. It knocks out large chunks of Obamacare, but not all of it. And it doesn't include any elements of a replacement. This year, Republicans have promised to pass a replacement quickly, and some elements might be included in the repeal bill.

But still: It's a fresh look at what might happen if Republicans don't replace Obamacare right away, not after a two-year transition. And it's a strong warning about the impact if they get rid of the individual mandate, one of the most unpopular parts of Obamacare, without changing the part that requires health insurers to cover everyone with pre-existing conditions.

Democrats are already sounding the alarms about the report. Expect to hear more from them — and from insurers.

Go deeper

Trump says he's prepared to sign executive orders on coronavirus aid

President Trump. Photo: Jim watson/Getty Images

President Trump, speaking from a podium at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., on Friday announced that he is prepared to issue executive orders suspending payroll taxes and extending enhanced unemployment benefits through the end of 2020, and halting student loan interest and payments indefinitely.

Why it matters: The impending orders come after talks between the White House and Democratic leadership collapsed Friday afternoon. But Trump said he remains committed to striking a deal with Congress on a broader stimulus package before signing the orders.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 4 p.m. ET: 19,193,661 — Total deaths: 716,735 — Total recoveries — 11,611,029Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 4 p.m. ET: 4,918,927 — Total deaths: 160,737 — Total recoveries: 1,598,624 — Total tests: 59,652,675Map.
  3. Politics: White House recommends Trump issue executive orders on coronavirus aid.
  4. Education: Cuomo says all New York schools can reopen for in-person learning.
  5. Public health: Surgeon general urges flu shots to prevent "double whammy" with coronavirus — Massachusetts pauses reopening after uptick in coronavirus cases
  6. World: Africa records over 1 million coronavirus cases — Gates Foundation puts $150 million behind coronavirus vaccine production.

Trump: "We are going a different way" on coronavirus aid

President Trump. Photo: Jim Watsonn/AFP via Getty Images

President Trump tweeted on Friday that his administration is "going a different way" with coronavirus aid after negotiations with congressional Democrats stalled again, suggesting he will use an executive order to address stimulus spending.

What he's saying: "Pelosi and Schumer only interested in Bailout Money for poorly run Democrat cities and states. Nothing to do with China Virus! Want one trillion dollars. No interest. We are going a different way!" Trump tweeted.