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Evan Vucci / AP

A key Republican strategist tells me that the health-care vote gives Dems a better (though still not good) chance of retaking the House in 2018.

The reason: After the Senate vote, the House members "will have difficulty passing a repeal/replace bill, but will have voted for a bill that Dems can claim would be terrible for real people's health care and costs."

SIREN: The Cook Political Report today will shift its 2018 forecast for 20 House districts, all in favor of Democrats.

David Wasserman (@redistrict), House Editor of The Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical), gives Axios AM readers a sneak peek at his analysis:

  • "Not only did dozens of Republicans in marginal districts just hitch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just received their best candidate recruitment tool yet."
  • Sentence of the day: "Democrats aren't so much recruiting candidates as they are overwhelmed by a deluge of eager newcomers, including doctors and veterans in traditionally red seats who have no political record for the GOP to attack — almost a mirror image of 2010."
  • "Of the 23 Republicans sitting in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, 14 voted for ... repeal and replace."

N.Y. Times Quote of the Day ... House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, warning moderate Rs: "You have every provision of this bill tattooed on your forehead. You will glow in the dark."

Subscribe to Axios AM/PM for a daily rundown of what's new and why it matters, directly from Mike Allen.
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Go deeper

Mike Allen, author of AM
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Why Trump may still fire Barr

Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

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Behind the scenes: A source familiar with the president's thinking tells Axios that Trump remains frustrated with what he sees as the lack of a vigorous investigation into his election conspiracy theories.

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Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Thursday will publicly warn that China's threat to the U.S. is a defining issue of our time, a senior administration official tells Axios.

Why it matters: It's exceedingly rare for the head of the U.S. intelligence community to make public accusations about a rival power.

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Tech's race problem is all about power

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As problematic as the tech industry's diversity statistics are, activists say the focus on those numbers overlooks a more fundamental problem — one less about numbers than about power.

What they're saying: In tech, they argue, decision-making power remains largely concentrated in the hands of white men. The result is an industry whose products and working conditions belie the industry rhetoric about changing the world for the better.