Sep 24, 2019

Money managers still like stocks despite recession fears

The seal of the United States Federal Reserve. Photo: Brooks Kraft/ Getty Images

More than half of money managers think a global economic downturn is likely next year, a survey of 200 institutions that oversee $4.1 trillion in assets found.

Why it matters: It was the first time the survey conducted by Absolute Strategy Research has shown a recession likelihood greater than 50% since the survey began in 2014.

  • "People have definitely bought into the bearish macro view," said ASR's head of research David Bowers, according to the Financial Times. "When you look at the pattern over the past four or five years, it is definitely quite an important inflection point."

Yes, but: The survey also suggests investors are betting that monetary policy will help calm the waters and have continued to buy risky assets like stocks.

  • "They haven’t gone maximum defensive," Bowers said. "People are thinking the cavalry is going to come quickly to create stimulus to provide that turnaround."

Go deeper: Economists see sustained low growth, but no recession

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Economists forecast slowing U.S. growth from U.S.-China trade war

Shipping containers from China in Long Beach, California. Photo: Mark Ralston/AFP/Getty Images

Economists said in a new survey that they think the U.S.-China trade war will bring about a slowdown in U.S. growth this year and next, per AP.

Why it matters: The economists also said they expect the trade war to increase the risk of recession in late 2020, which would put an end to the longest period of economic expansion on record in the U.S.

Go deeperArrowOct 7, 2019

Most Americans support a ban on flavored vaping products

Photo: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images

Almost three-quarters of likely 2020 voters support banning flavored vaping products, according to a new survey by Schoen Consulting, commissioned by the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids.

Why it matters: Some Republicans have warned that President Trump's proposed ban on flavors could anger vapers and risk his 2020 chances, as Axios' Alayna Treene has reported, but this survey suggests there's more political risk to inaction.

Go deeperArrowOct 10, 2019

Report: Key global economic indicators hit lowest level since 2016

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Headline economic indicators have hit their lowest levels since spring 2016 as the global economy sinks into a "synchronised stagnation" period, research by the Brookings Institution and the Financial Times published Sunday shows.

Why it matters: The Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery research shows weak growth in some major economies and "essentially no growth or even mild contraction" ahead of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C., this week — the first with Kristalina Georgieva as the IMF’s new managing director.

Go deeperArrowOct 14, 2019