The seal of the United States Federal Reserve. Photo: Brooks Kraft/ Getty Images

More than half of money managers think a global economic downturn is likely next year, a survey of 200 institutions that oversee $4.1 trillion in assets found.

Why it matters: It was the first time the survey conducted by Absolute Strategy Research has shown a recession likelihood greater than 50% since the survey began in 2014.

  • "People have definitely bought into the bearish macro view," said ASR's head of research David Bowers, according to the Financial Times. "When you look at the pattern over the past four or five years, it is definitely quite an important inflection point."

Yes, but: The survey also suggests investors are betting that monetary policy will help calm the waters and have continued to buy risky assets like stocks.

  • "They haven’t gone maximum defensive," Bowers said. "People are thinking the cavalry is going to come quickly to create stimulus to provide that turnaround."

Go deeper: Economists see sustained low growth, but no recession

Go deeper

Updated 40 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Politics: Ex-FDA chief: Pence campaigning after COVID exposure puts others at risk — Mark Meadows: "We are not going to control the pandemic"— COVID-19 looms over White House Halloween celebrations.
  2. Health: 13 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week — Fauci says maybe we should mandate masks if people don't wear them — America was sick well before it ever got COVID-19.
  3. World: Italy tightens restrictions Spain declares new state of emergency.
Updated 46 mins ago - Health

13 states set single-day coronavirus case records last week

Data: Compiled by Axios; Map: Danielle Alberti/Axios

13 states set new highs last week for coronavirus infections recorded in a single day, according to the COVID Tracking Project (CTP) and state health departments. Kansas, Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming surpassed records from the previous week.

The big picture: The pandemic is getting worse again across the country, and daily coronavirus cases have risen in the U.S. for six straight weeks, according to a seven-day average tracked by Axios. The U.S. reported over 80,000 new cases on both Friday and Saturday.

Senate advances Amy Coney Barrett nomination, setting up final confirmation vote

Photo: Xinhua/Ting Shen via Getty Images

The Senate voted 51-48 on Sunday to advance the Supreme Court nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett, setting up a final confirmation vote for Monday.

Why it matters: It's now virtually inevitable that the Senate will vote to confirm President Trump's third Supreme Court nominee before the election, which is just nine days away.