The seal of the United States Federal Reserve. Photo: Brooks Kraft/ Getty Images
More than half of money managers think a global economic downturn is likely next year, a survey of 200 institutions that oversee $4.1 trillion in assets found.
Why it matters: It was the first time the survey conducted by Absolute Strategy Research has shown a recession likelihood greater than 50% since the survey began in 2014.
- "People have definitely bought into the bearish macro view," said ASR's head of research David Bowers, according to the Financial Times. "When you look at the pattern over the past four or five years, it is definitely quite an important inflection point."
Yes, but: The survey also suggests investors are betting that monetary policy will help calm the waters and have continued to buy risky assets like stocks.
- "They haven’t gone maximum defensive," Bowers said. "People are thinking the cavalry is going to come quickly to create stimulus to provide that turnaround."