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The seal of the United States Federal Reserve. Photo: Brooks Kraft/ Getty Images

More than half of money managers think a global economic downturn is likely next year, a survey of 200 institutions that oversee $4.1 trillion in assets found.

Why it matters: It was the first time the survey conducted by Absolute Strategy Research has shown a recession likelihood greater than 50% since the survey began in 2014.

  • "People have definitely bought into the bearish macro view," said ASR's head of research David Bowers, according to the Financial Times. "When you look at the pattern over the past four or five years, it is definitely quite an important inflection point."

Yes, but: The survey also suggests investors are betting that monetary policy will help calm the waters and have continued to buy risky assets like stocks.

  • "They haven’t gone maximum defensive," Bowers said. "People are thinking the cavalry is going to come quickly to create stimulus to provide that turnaround."

Go deeper: Economists see sustained low growth, but no recession

Go deeper

Journalism enters dangerous new era

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

The Capitol attack on Jan. 6 resulted in at least nine physical assaults against journalists and at least five arrests, per the U.S. Press Freedom Tracker's top editor.

Why it matters: President Trump's harsh rhetoric towards the press has empowered leaders abroad and locally in the U.S. to continue to attack press that they don't like.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

The beginning of the beginning for Biden's climate push

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Joe Biden's inauguration and the days right after will bring a rat-tat-tat burst of climate policy moves, but keep this in mind amid the splashy pledges: pushing through most of his agenda will be a long, uncertain slog.

Why it matters: Biden's climate plan is far more expansive than anything contemplated under President Obama. But for all the immediate pledges, it will take years to see how far Biden gets.

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets
4 hours ago - Economy & Business

Biden's inflation danger

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

President-elect Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal has economists and bullish market analysts revising their U.S. growth expectations higher, predicting a reflation of the economy in 2021 and possibly more booming returns for risk assets.

Yes, but: Others are warning that what's expected to be reflation could actually show up as inflation, a much less welcome phenomenon.