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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios 

Here's the turnout formula that could help Democrats take back the House: competitive races up and down the ballot + early signs of enthusiasm + college-educated women.

Bottom line: Democrats have been protesting since Trump was elected and are in good shape to pick up House seats as that anti-Trump energy turns into showing up to vote.

  • The competitive races, including at least 13 Senate and 36 gubernatorial nationwide will help bring Democrats to the polls.
  • Already in primaries "Democratic turnout has risen more sharply than Republican turnout in at least 123 congressional districts, including districts where Republican incumbents are most vulnerable, in states like California and New Jersey," according to the New York Times.
  • College-educated women are a "very motivated" voting group breaking for Democrats, Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman tells us.

Watch for President Trump's base to sit out this cycle because before Trump, they (disaffected, white working-class voters) hadn't really shown up to vote since Ross Perot was on the ballot in 1992 and 1996, Wasserman says.

  • That could make this year a mirror image of the 2010 cycle when Obama voters stayed home, and Republicans rose up against Obama and his healthcare law and Democrats lost 63 House seats.
  • Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball says he sees 2018 looking similar to the Democratic banner year of 2006.

Go deeper

30 mins ago - Health

Fauci: COVID vaccine rollout needs to prioritize people of color

Anthony Fauci. Photo: Alex Wong via Getty Images

Infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci highlighted the need to address racial disparities in the COVID-19 vaccination process, per an interview with The New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday.

What he’s saying: "I think that's the one thing we really got to be careful of. We don't want in the beginning ... most of the people who are getting it are otherwise, well, middle-class white people."

The Mischief Makers

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

Several Republican and Democratic lawmakers are emerging as troublemakers within their parties and political thorns for their leadership.

Why it matters: We're calling this group "The Mischief Makers" — members who threaten to upend party unity — the theme eclipsing Washington at the moment — and potentially jeopardize the Democrats' or Republicans' position heading into the 2022 midterms.

2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Obama speechwriter fears Biden unity drive is one-sided

Cody Keenan (right) is shown heading to Marine One in December 2009. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

President Obama's former speechwriter says he's "preemptively frustrated" with President Biden's effort to find unity with Republicans.

What they're saying: Cody Keenan told Axios that Biden's messaging team has "struck all the right chords," but at some point "they're gonna have to answer questions like, 'Why didn't you achieve unity?' when there's an entire political party that's already acting to stop it."