Updated Jul 17, 2018

A winning turnout formula for Democrats

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios 

Here's the turnout formula that could help Democrats take back the House: competitive races up and down the ballot + early signs of enthusiasm + college-educated women.

Bottom line: Democrats have been protesting since Trump was elected and are in good shape to pick up House seats as that anti-Trump energy turns into showing up to vote.

  • The competitive races, including at least 13 Senate and 36 gubernatorial nationwide will help bring Democrats to the polls.
  • Already in primaries "Democratic turnout has risen more sharply than Republican turnout in at least 123 congressional districts, including districts where Republican incumbents are most vulnerable, in states like California and New Jersey," according to the New York Times.
  • College-educated women are a "very motivated" voting group breaking for Democrats, Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman tells us.

Watch for President Trump's base to sit out this cycle because before Trump, they (disaffected, white working-class voters) hadn't really shown up to vote since Ross Perot was on the ballot in 1992 and 1996, Wasserman says.

  • That could make this year a mirror image of the 2010 cycle when Obama voters stayed home, and Republicans rose up against Obama and his healthcare law and Democrats lost 63 House seats.
  • Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball says he sees 2018 looking similar to the Democratic banner year of 2006.

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U.S. coronavirus updates: Death toll passes 9,600

Data: The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins; Map: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Recorded deaths from the novel coronavirus surpassed 9,600 in the U.S. Sunday night, per Johns Hopkins data. The death toll in the U.S. has risen over 1,000 every day since April 1.

Why it matters: U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams said on Sunday this upcoming week will be "the hardest and saddest week of most Americans' lives" — calling it our "our Pearl Harbor, our 9/11 moment."

Go deeperArrowUpdated 6 mins ago - Health

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 10:30 p.m. ET: 1,273,990 — Total deaths: 69,444 — Total recoveries: 260,247Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 10:30 p.m. ET: 337,310 — Total deaths: 9,634 — Total recoveries: 17,461Map.
  3. Federal government latest: Surgeon general says this week will be "our Pearl Harbor, our 9/11 moment." The USDA confirms that a Bronx zoo tiger tested positive for coronavirus.
  4. 2020 latest: "We have no contingency plan," Trump said on the 2020 Republican National Convention. Biden says DNC may have to hold virtual convention.
  5. States updates: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said the state is "literally going day-to-day" with supplies.
  6. World update: Queen Elizabeth II urges the British people to confront pandemic with "self-discipline" and "resolve" in rare televised address.
  7. What should I do? Pets, moving and personal health. Answers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingQ&A: Minimizing your coronavirus risk.
  8. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it.

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Intelligence community watchdog suggests Trump fired him for doing his job

Michael Atkinson, Inspector General of the Intelligence Community,at the Capitol in October. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Intelligence Community Inspector General Michael Atkinson suggested in a statement Sunday President Trump fired him for acting impartially in carrying out his duties following a whistleblower complaint.

Why it matters: Atkinson alerted Congress last September to the complaint on Trump's correspondence with Ukraine's president, triggering an inquiry that resulted in the Trump's impeachment.

Go deeperArrowUpdated 1 hour ago - Politics & Policy