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Newly eleected Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Photo: Pedro Mera/Getty Images

Over at the Atlantic Council, David Goldwyn looks at what Andrés Manuel López Obrador's (AMLO's) election means for the 2013 overhaul of Mexico's energy sector that enabled new private investment and other changes.

Why it matters: The election is a seismic political shift in a country that has deep two-way energy ties with the U.S., including major U.S. gas exports to Mexico, as well as imports of heavy crude.

A few takeaways from Goldwyn, who is chairman of the Atlantic’s Global Energy Center Advisory Group...

1. The Trump effect: Goldwyn notes that Trump's threat to withdraw from NAFTA, aggressive immigration posture, and insulting comments about Mexicans could influence AMLO.

  • "AMLO’s desire for greater energy self-sufficiency is partially rooted in concern over the reliability of US energy supplies," he writes.
  • "As a long-time ally of national labor unions and a supporter of a strong Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), AMLO may seek to maximize national investment and employment in the sector, hedging Mexico’s political risk, even at the cost of economic efficiency."

2. AMLO's limits: The 2013 reforms included constitutional and statutory changes that can't be undone unilaterally, and AMLO intends to honor existing contracts.

  • So look for steps like ongoing build-out of the gas pipeline system, new oil-and-gas production coming online and opening of new gasoline stations by private operators to continue.
  • Yes, but: AMLO can make a number of major moves. Goldwyn says the new regime might pause offering new areas for oil-and-gas development. AMLO may also weigh whether to push Pemex into projects like new refineries, deepwater drilling and others were designers of the 2013 overhaul felt the state company lacked money or expertise to undertake.

Go deeper

Updated 10 mins ago - World

Biden reviews U.S. arms deals with Saudi Arabia and UAE

Trump struck several large arms deals with Mohammed bin Salman (L) and Saudi Arabia. Photo: Kevin Dietsch-Pool/Getty Images

The Biden administration has put on hold two big arms deals with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates which were approved in the final weeks of the Trump administration, a State Department official told Axios.

Why it matters: The sales of F-35 jets and attack drones to the UAE and a large supply of munitions to Saudi Arabia will be paused pending a review. That signals a major policy shift from the Trump era, and may herald sharp tensions with both Gulf countries.

Trump supporter found with pipe bombs accused of plot to attack Democrats

Five improvised explosive devices that the FBI says "were fully operational and could cause great bodily harm or injury if handled improperly." Photo: FBI/Justice Department

The FBI believes California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and the Bay Area headquarters of Twitter and Facebook were targets of a man facing federal explosives charges, according to a criminal complaint.

Driving the news: Prosecutors charged Ian Benjamin Rogers after finding weapons including five pipe bombs, 49 guns and thousands of rounds of ammunition following a Jan. 15 search of his Napa County home and auto repair business. His alleged goal was to ensure former President Trump remained in office.

4 hours ago - Health

Fauci: COVID vaccine rollout needs to prioritize people of color

Anthony Fauci. Photo: Alex Wong via Getty Images

Infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci highlighted the need to address racial disparities in the COVID-19 vaccination process, per an interview with The New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday.

What he’s saying: "I think that's the one thing we really got to be careful of. We don't want in the beginning ... most of the people who are getting it are otherwise, well, middle-class white people."