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Flaring natural gas burns by jack pumps at an oil well near Buford, North Dakota in the Bakken oil fields. (William Campbell/Corbis via Getty Images)

Methane emissions from oil and gas, agriculture and other sources are contributing to thousands more deaths per year from air pollution than previously thought, while simultaneously leading to a rapid increase in global average temperatures, according to a comprehensive new U.N. report.

Why it matters: The report, which is the most thorough study of methane's contribution to global warming, public health ailments, and solutions to date.

  • It shows both the perils involved with continuing to drill and transport oil and natural gas and the range of available low-cost solutions to bring down emissions.

The details: The world would need to cut 40 to 45% of human-caused global methane emissions by 2030 in order to avoid 0.3°C of warming.

  • About 30% of the cuts in methane emissions by 2030 would come from targeted measures, such as containing leaks in natural gas pipelines.
  • Another 15% of the emissions cuts would come from broader efforts to decarbonize the economy, such as turning away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy sources, the report finds.
  • Inge Andersen, executive director of the U.N. Environment Program which co-produced the report, told reporters on a call Thursday morning that it's no longer optional to tackle methane emissions.
  • "Without tackling this we cannot hit 1.5°C and we will certainly overshoot the [2°C target]. So, I think... that this is on the must have list."

The big picture: Methane is a greenhouse gas that, while it is far more ephemeral in the atmosphere compared to carbon dioxide (it only lasts in the air about 10 years, compared to hundreds to a thousand years for a molecule of CO2), is about ten times more potent as a global warming contributor.

  • Methane concentrations have risen rapidly during the past few decades, to record highs that are incompatible with the Paris Agreement's 2°C temperature target relative to the preindustrial era, the report notes.
  • According to the report, there is "strong evidence" that the increases in methane amounts detected since the 2010s were "primarily attributable" to increased emissions from fossil fuel-related activities.
  • This period coincides with the fracking boom and growth in oil and gas production in the U.S. Methane is the main component of natural gas, and the report focuses on leak prevention, detection, and sealing abandoned wells as cost-saving measures that industry could implement.

Of note: The study also finds that there are considerable low cost to money-saving measures that oil and gas companies can take to cut their methane emissions from pipelines, drilling sites, and other facilities.

  • However, it finds that expanding natural gas infrastructure and usage without relying on currently unproven technologies to remove carbon from the atmosphere is "incompatible" with limiting global warming to keeping global warming to 1.5°C relative to the preindustrial era.
  • "One thing the report calls for very strongly is not building any more of this fossil fuel infrastructure if we are phasing this out over the next couple of decades," said Drew Shindell, an Earth scientist at Duke University and lead author of the new report.
  • In other words, the report calls into question the popular view in Washington that natural gas is a growing, so-called "bridge fuel" for use until renewables can more reliable supply power to the grid.
  • Other solutions would be employed to cut methane emissions from agriculture and coal sectors.

Context: The study also shows that methane emissions have much more significant health impacts than previously thought.

  • For every million metric tons of methane emissions that's reduced, about 1,430 annual premature deaths would be avoided, researchers found.
  • Methane emissions are a contributor to ground-level ozone pollution, which is a deadly form of air pollution that can aggravate respiratory and cardiovascular disease.

What they're saying: "Of all the short lived climate pollutants, methane has by far the largest current warming impact, accounting for nearly one-fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions, and it is therefore now by far the top priority, short-lived climate pollutant that we need to tackle," said Rick Duke, senior advisor to John Kerry, President Biden's special envoy on climate.

Go deeper

Green hydrogen costs could reach parity in a decade, report finds

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Hydrogen is increasingly being viewed as a potential energy storage solution for difficult-to-decarbonize sectors of the economy, including heavy-duty transportation and industrial uses.

Driving the news: A new analysis by the ICF Climate Center, shared exclusively with Axios, shows that the cost of zero-carbon, green hydrogen could reach parity with more greenhouse-gas intensive ways of making the gas in as little as the next decade.

Bill Gates pledges $1.5B for climate projects with Energy Department

Photo: K Asif/India Today Group via Getty Images

Bill Gates has pledged $1.5 billion to climate collaborations with the Department of Energy (DOE) through his climate investment fund Breakthrough Energy Catalyst, the Wall Street Journal reports.

The backdrop: Global warming is happening so fast that scientists now say we'll cross a crucial temperature threshold as early as 2030, up to a decade sooner than previously thought. The projects would depend on passage of President Biden's $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, which currently awaits a House vote.

Internet response to dire UN climate report was muted vs. 2018

Expand chart
Data: NewsWhip; Chart: Danielle Alberti/Axios

This week's UN IPCC report made a bigger splash online than a special report the panel issued in 2019, but one that was well below 2018's examination of the feasibility of holding global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F), according to exclusive data provided by NewsWhip.

Why it matters: The data shows that the shock factor needed to jolt the public into demanding — and taking — action to curb the effects of climate change may be wearing off. It may also show that the report, or the media coverage of the findings, was too alarming and turned people off from engaging with it, given the headlines it generated.