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Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told a Kentucky event on Friday that a coronavirus stimulus deal is "unlikely in the next three weeks," per the Washington Post's Erica Werner.

Our thought bubble: Two sources close to Senate leadership said President Trump is desperate, has zero leverage to push them to support a bill crafted by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and congressional Republicans aren’t inclined to wrap themselves any tighter to a sinking ship.

What they're saying: "You’re never going to get a deal out of Pelosi that Republicans can support. So do you really want to divide your party within days of an election?" said a source close to Senate leadership about McConnell's calculations.

  • "This entire exercise from Pelosi is basically trying to jam up the Senate in the midst of a Supreme Court confirmation. They know that from a procedural standpoint McConnell can drive this train to conclusion, so what they’re trying do is throw as many roadblocks in the way as possible — and the best way to do that is get the president focused on some extraneous issue."
  • "Pelosi’s out there doing 25th Amendment s--t today. Does this sound like a lady who wants a deal? There’s no way McConnell takes his eye off the ball. Republicans are intently focused on the Supreme Court."

The state of play: White House communications director Alyssa Farah said later on Friday that Trump was willing to come up on on the White House's previous offer of a $1.6 trillion stimulus package. She pointed to a $1.8 trillion offer that she said was being made by Mnuchin.

  • If offered, the $1.8 trillion figure would still be below the $2.2 trillion bill passed in the House last week. Farah added that the Trump administration wants to "stay below 2 trillion."
  • Senate Republicans, including McConnell, have largely been left out of the recent negotiating process between congressional Democrats and the White House.
  • Even if Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin were to strike a deal — and that's a big if — there is little chance the Senate GOP would get on board with it.
  • Complicating matters, Senate Republicans remain far apart on what they want as a conference. They also view Trump and Mnuchin as far more willing to give more to Pelosi than what they're comfortable with — both numbers-wise and on policy.

The bottom line: McConnell doesn’t want to do anything to interrupt the only visible Republican win before the election in his chamber — the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

Go deeper

Off the Rails

A premeditated lie lit the fire

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

"Jared, you call the Murdochs! Jason, you call Sammon and Hemmer!”

President Trump was almost shouting. He directed his son-in-law and his senior strategist from his private quarters at the White House late on election night. He barked out the names of top Fox News executives and talent he expected to answer to him.

Updated 26 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Suspect in FedEx shooting identified as 19-year-old former FedEx employee Brandon Hole

Crime scene investigators walk through the FedEx parking lot in Indianapolis the day after a mass shooting left nine dead, including the gunman, who took his own life. Photo: Jeff Dean/AFP via Getty Images.

The suspected gunman in Thursday's mass shooting at an Indianapolis FedEx facility that left at least eight people dead and multiple others wounded, has been identified by local police as 19-year-old Brandon Hole, who was a former employee of FedEx, a company spokesperson Bonny Harrison told the AP.

The latest: At least 100 people were in the building at the time of the mass shooting, authorities said Friday. Indianapolis Metropolitan Police Department Deputy Chief Craig McCartt told reporters that Hole worked at FedEx through 2020. He did not specify the circumstances of Hole’s departure.

The legacy of Bernie Madoff

Bernie Madoff, architect of the largest Ponzi scheme in American history, died on Wednesday in federal prison, 11 years into his 150-year sentence.

Axios Re:Cap digs into Madoff’s crimes, what they revealed about America's financial system and what changed after the scheme came crashing down with Diana B. Henriques, author of the The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust.