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Photos: Getty Images

There's a better than 50-50 chance that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would vote to convict President Trump in an impeachment trial, sources tell Axios.

What they're saying: "The Senate institutional loyalists are fomenting a counterrevolution" to Trump, said a top Republican close to McConnell.

Why it matters: This would represent one of the most shocking and damning votes in the history of American politics, by the most powerful Republican in Congress.

  • McConnell's vote would open the door to the possibility that Trump could be convicted and prohibited from running for president again.

An anti-Trump infection is spreading among Hill Republicans:

  • House Republican Conference Chair Liz Cheney of Wyoming — the third-ranking House GOP leader, and a top establishment voice — announced that she will vote to impeach Trump.
  • Cheney said of the Capitol mob: "There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution."

The New York Times reported that McConnell "has told associates that he believes President Trump committed impeachable offenses and that he is pleased that Democrats are moving to impeach him."

  • Axios is told McConnell sees this fight as his legacy — defending the Senate and the institution against the verbal attack of the president and the literal attack of his followers.
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Go deeper

Conservatives warn culture, political wars will worsen

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

The verdict is clear: The vast majority of Republicans will stand firm with former President Trump. The next phase is clear, too: Republicans are rallying around a common grievance that big government, big media and big business are trying to shut them up, shut them out and shut them down. 

Why it matters: The post-Trump GOP, especially its most powerful media platforms, paint the new reality as an existential threat. This means political attacks are seen — or characterized — as assaults on their very being. 

Maxine Waters offers right-wing alternative universe for Chauvin trial

Data: Stanford Cable TV News Analyzer; Chart: Axios Visuals

While Fox News has largely ignored the Derek Chauvin trial compared to competitors, conservative media seized on comments from Rep. Maxine Waters over the weekend, making it the single biggest trial storyline on social media since it began on March 29, according to NewsWhip data provided to Axios.

Why it matters: The data shows that for conservative America, the story in Minneapolis is being used as a way to highlight the aggression of protesters rather than the police killing of a Black man.

5 mins ago - World

China leads the world with new state-backed digital currency

Illustration: Rae Cook/Axios

In a push to dominate global financial technology, the Chinese government is aiming to roll out the world's first state-backed digital currency.

Why it matters: China's new currency could set global standards for the use of national digital currencies — and give Beijing unprecedented visibility and control over domestic financial transactions.