Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Job losses over the past month have likely been worse than even some of the more extreme economic estimates, and are expected to get worse.

Driving the news: Led by small businesses, U.S. companies cut payrolls by 27,000 in early March, ADP's latest private payrolls report showed Wednesday, in a surge of cuts that predated many municipalities' mandated business closures.

Zoom in: The ADP headline number significantly underplays the level of carnage in labor markets, as service-related industries saw losses of just 18,000 during the month.

  • Most of the decline came from sectors not associated with restaurants or leisure and hospitality, with the biggest losses coming from trade, transportation and utilities (-37,000), followed by construction (-16,000) and administrative and support services (-12,000).
  • Small businesses saw 90,000 job losses during the period ending March 12, and 66,000 of those came from companies that employ 25 people or less. 

What they're saying: Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, notes that just 6% of companies indicated they are hiring, a level worse than during the financial crisis and comparable to about 40% during a typical month.

  • He expects total job losses will total 10 million to 15 million, a number that is beginning to look positively quaint by comparison.

Goldman Sachs predicts unemployment will peak at around 15%, with a little more than 20 million unemployed.

  • Economists at the St. Louis Fed project about 47 million people will lose their jobs, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate.

Go deeper: An unsettling future for millions of American jobs

Go deeper

Trump says he intends to give RNC speech on White House lawn

President Trump speaking to reporters on South Lawn in July. Photo: Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images

President Trump told the New York Post on Thursday that he plans to deliver his Republican National Convention speech from the White House lawn, despite bipartisan criticism of the optics and legality of the location.

Why it matters: Previous presidents avoided blurring staged campaign-style events — like party conventions — with official business of governing on the White House premises, per Politico.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 20,739,537 — Total deaths: 751,910— Total recoveries: 12,895,242Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 5,242,184 — Total deaths: 166,971 — Total recoveries: 1,755,225 — Total tests: 64,612,034Map.
  3. Politics: House Democrats to investigate scientist leading "Operation Warp Speed" vaccine projectMcConnell announces Senate will not hold votes until Sept. 8 unless stimulus deal is reached.
  4. 2020: Biden calls for 3-month national mask mandateBiden and Harris to receive coronavirus briefings 4 times a week.
  5. States: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to drop lawsuit over Atlanta's mask mandate.
  6. Business: Why the CARES Act makes 2020 the best year for companies to lose money.
  7. Public health: Fauci's guidance on pre-vaccine coronavirus treatments Cases are falling, but don't get too comfortable.

Fauci's guidance on pre-vaccine coronavirus treatments

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

Antibody drugs and various medicine cocktails against the coronavirus are progressing and may provide some relief before vaccines.

The big picture: Everyone wants to know how and when they can return to "normal" life, as vaccines are not expected to be ready for most Americans for at least a year. Two therapies are known to be helpful, and more could be announced by late September, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci tells Axios.