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Analysts expect key U.S. manufacturing index to improve this month

Data: Institute for Supply Management; Chart: Axios Visuals

The U.S. jobs report will be the most watched piece of data this week, but Friday will also bring the October reading of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing data. The index fell to the lowest level since June 2009 in September.

Why it matters: The U.S. manufacturing industry has seen a consistent decline all year, falling into recession earlier in the year and showing outright contraction for the second month in a row last month.

Yes, but: The IHS Markit manufacturing survey showed much better readings for September, including the second straight monthly increase and the highest reading in five months.

  • And recent regional manufacturing reports from the Fed also have shown stronger numbers.
  • Analysts expect the ISM's manufacturing index to improve, predicting a return to expansion.

The big picture: Manufacturing is a small portion of the U.S. economy, but is considered a leading indicator.

  • The services sector, which makes up close to 70% of the economy, has been closely following manufacturing. If it falls into contraction that could mean real trouble.
  • However, a rebound in the ISM report would be great news for the market.

Go deeper: Things may not be that bad for global manufacturing