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Data: EIA; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Market forces have been in the driver's seat during President Trump’s first term, which means oil-and-gas kept growing (until the pandemic), he couldn’t revive coal, and the country stayed far away from policies that would drive steep future carbon cuts.

Where it stands: The administration launched a big deregulatory push to scuttle Obama-era climate policies and support coal, oil and gas. Here are a few snapshots of what happened over the last four years.

  • Carbon emissions haven't moved greatly in either direction, as the chart above shows. (Of note: It doesn’t show this year, which would display a steep decline due to the pandemic's effect on travel and economic activity.)
  • Oil production kept soaring to new records until the pandemic crushed demand and prices, reaching about 13 million barrels per day by the end of 2019.
  • Petroleum exports, especially crude, soared too. But, to underscore the way markets and policy both play a role, the crude export boom was enabled by a late 2015 law that lifted extremely heavy restrictions, which set the stage to ship surging U.S. supplies abroad.
  • Natural gas production, already at record levels when Trump arrived, generally climbed even faster until COVID-19.

But, but, but: Natural gas and renewables have kept squeezing coal out of power markets, despite Trump's pro-coal push, and don't look for that to change.

Between the lines: This serves to show how market conditions hold a lot of sway. That's also true of the oil-and-gas production boom, which began over a decade ago.

  • Coal production last year fell to its lowest levels since the 1970s, and is falling again this year.
  • The fuel's share of the power mix has kept dropping under Trump, and is now less than a fourth of U.S. generation.
  • Wind has continued its upward march under Trump, despite his anti-wind sentiment, while solar has grown even more sharply, albeit from a smaller baseline.

What they're saying: The Rhodium Group's Trevor Houser notes market developments in clean energy, like the decline of solar and wind costs, meant those sectors were "mature enough" that their trajectory continued despite Trump's pro-coal efforts.

  • The research firm's modeling shows that Trump's policies around vehicles, power, and oil-and-gas sites means future emissions will be higher than if former President Obama's policies had continued.

Yes, but: That's less important than what didn't happen under Trump, Houser says in an email."While those regulatory rollbacks had a measurable impact on U.S. emissions ... the real climate impact of the Trump Administration was the lost four years of additional federal policy action."

What we're watching: I mean, come on.

Go deeper:

Go deeper

Trudeau stresses "disappointment" with Keystone XL in first official call with Biden

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo: DAVE CHAN/AFP via Getty

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Friday expressed his "disappointment" with President Biden's executive order to rescind permits for the Keystone XL pipeline, in a readout of the president's first official call with a foreign leader.

Why it matters: The prime minister has long backed the pipeline meant to carry crude oil from Alberta to Nebraska. Biden, however, campaigned on the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Updated 4 hours ago - World

Mexican President López Obrador tests positive for coronavirus

Mexico's President Andrés Manuel López Obrador during a press conference at National Palace in Mexico City, Mexico, on Wednesday. Photo: Ismael Rosas/Eyepix Group/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador announced Sunday evening that he's tested positive for COVID-19.

Driving the news: López Obrador tweeted that he has mild symptoms and is receiving medical treatment. "As always, I am optimistic," he added. "We will all move forward."

4 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Sarah Huckabee Sanders to run for governor of Arkansas

Sarah Huckabee Sanders at FOX News' studios in New York City in 2019. Photo: Steven Ferdman/Getty Images

Former White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders will announce Monday that she's running for governor of Arkansas.

The big picture: Sanders was touted as a contender after it was announced she was leaving the Trump administration in June 2019. Then-President Trump tweeted he hoped she would run for governor, adding "she would be fantastic." Sanders is "seen as leader in the polls" in the Republican state, notes the Washington Post's Josh Dawsey, who first reported the news.