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Data: RentCafe; Note: Includes buildings with 50 or more units; Table: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

Roughly 8,817 new apartment units are expected to be completed across Tampa Bay this year, according to a new report.

Why it matters: A housing shortage in the U.S. has contributed to the rising cost of both renting and buying.

What's happening: Two major Florida metros (Miami and Orlando) are among the top 20 areas where roughly 41% of U.S. renters live, per the report by RentCafe, which analyzed data from real estate intelligence service Yardi Matrix.

Zoom out: A historic surge in new apartment supply — 1.2 million units were completed during the pandemic — helped slow rent growth nationwide.

The big picture: Nearly three-fourths of renters say they're renting in an area where they couldn't afford to buy, according to a new survey from RealPage, a real estate analytics and software company.

Yes, but: Around 89% of the U.S. units completed from 2020 through 2022 are high-end, per the report, and not the type of affordable apartments many renters want.

Go deeper: Tampa Bay apartments add over-the-top amenities like rooftop golf

What they're saying: There's a difference between renting by choice versus out of necessity, south St. Pete renter Rachel Van Kirk tells Axios.

She — a therapist with her master's — and her fiancé say they would buy a house tomorrow if they could afford a downpayment. They'd love more space and a yard for their dogs.

Coupled with mortgage rates, it'll take them another 2-3 years to save for a house in St. Pete.

Alan Jardine has lived and rented in Clearwater for 16 years. Typical rents there surpass his budget by about $500 a month.

He and his wife are moving to Oklahoma, where they already own property.

What's next: Across the U.S., 1 million rental units are slated for completion through 2025, but higher costs and other headwinds could slow developers' pace in future years.

"Tightening of bank lending standards — combined with rising costs of construction materials, labor and land — has made new projects harder to pencil," senior analyst Doug Ressler at Yardi Matrix says in the report.

Expect more new apartments across Tampa Bay

The number of new apartments in Tampa Bay has nearly doubled since 2020.

Real estate

Roughly 8,817 new apartment units are expected to be completed across Tampa Bay this year, according to a new report.<ul><li>Context: In 2020, that number was 4,575.</li></ul>Why it matters: A <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="housing shortage" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/20/housing-shortage-prices-high" data-vars-content-id="172d6f30-f7a2-49ea-8711-e52e192990d2" data-vars-headline="Expect more new apartments across Tampa Bay" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/06/20/housing-shortage-prices-high" target="_self">housing shortage</a> in the U.S. has contributed to the rising cost of both renting and buying.

Real Estate

Axios Tampa Bay, anchored by Ben Montgomery and Selene San Felice, is here to help readers get smarter, faster on the most consequential news and developments unfolding in their own backyard.

Tampa Bay sellers need to put in a little work for buyers to bite, Tampa-based agent Paul Fennell says.

Why it matters: Homebuyers already burdened by gravity-defying prices and mortgage rates don't want to move into an HGTV "before" photo.

What's happening: Sellers typically have a bias toward their house — and, of course, it's natural to want top-dollar for your home, Fennell says.

But they're starting to understand we're in a very different market than we were two years ago; buyers are strapped and can't afford to overpay, he says.

What they're saying: Sellers in the $300K-$400K listing range can expect to spend up to $30,000 getting their home ready for market. Fennell recommends spending the bulk of your budget on:

👃 Erasing smells. The easiest way to neutral scent is to replace the carpets and carpet pads, especially if you have pets.

💡 Lights. Choose neutral paint and flooring, and upgrade lighting.

🛠 Updating cabinets. Now's not the time for a full kitchen reno, but painting dark maple cabinets and adding fresh handles will go a long way.

🌳 Landscaping. Pull weeds, mow the lawn, remove branches from the roof.

The big picture: Self-identified fixer-uppers are typically selling for less, and more slowly, than expected, according to Zillow data shared with Axios.

Across the U.S., listings that mention the phrase — just 0.3% of sales in the first half of the year — sold at a 3.1% discount and took 3.2 days longer to sell relative to expectations, the data shows.

Listings pegged as "remodeled" or "renovated," which accounted for 24.1% of U.S. sales, sold at a 1.2% premium and 1.8 days faster than expected.

Zoom in: Listings that mention "fixer-upper" comprised 0.3% of Tampa. metro-area sales in the first half of 2023, per the Zillow data, while those advertised as "remodeled" or "renovated" made up 28.9%.

Data: Redfin; Note: Metro divisions are subdivisions of metropolitan areas; Chart: Axios Visuals

By the numbers: Roughly 47.5% of Tampa-area homes in July were snapped up in two weeks or less, according to Redfin data shared with Axios.

Nationwide, around 41% of listings were marked pending, contingent or sold within that window, Redfin found.

State of play: Houses that stay on the market for more than a month are usually overpriced or in need of major work, according to Redfin's Taylor Marr.

Tampa homes go off-market after a median of 21 days, compared to 10 days a year ago, per the real estate brokerage.

Go deeper: A $630K Bradenton fixer-upper with a dated kitchen and finishes has been on the market for 98 days so far.

Tampa Bay buyers don't want your fixer-upper

Homebuyers already burdened by gravity-defying prices and mortgage rates don't want to move into an HGTV "before" photo.

Illustration of two hammers forming an "X" shape. 

Tampa Bay sellers need to put in a little work for buyers to bite, Tampa-based agent Paul Fennell says.Why it matters: Homebuyers already burdened by <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="gravity-defying prices" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/17/housing-prices-affordability-rise-fall-2023-goldman-sachs" data-vars-content-id="28f52d94-055f-417d-a60e-856b2f7f5a11" data-vars-headline="Tampa Bay buyers don&#x27;t want your fixer-upper" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/17/housing-prices-affordability-rise-fall-2023-goldman-sachs" target="_self">gravity-defying prices</a> and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="mortgage rates" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/22/mortgage-rates-current" data-vars-content-id="28f52d94-055f-417d-a60e-856b2f7f5a11" data-vars-headline="Tampa Bay buyers don&#x27;t want your fixer-upper" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/22/mortgage-rates-current" target="_self">mortgage rates</a> don&#x27;t want to move into an HGTV &quot;before&quot; photo.

More people are talking about dome homes and disaster-proof designs as a solution to climate threats.

Why it matters: Experts say increasing extreme weather could give mass-market appeal to dome structures, which are relatively cheap to build and resilient against hurricane-force winds, Axios' Cuneyt Dil writes.

Zoom in: Michael DeFilippi bought his dome home in Lake Placid as a short-term rental in 2021. Like other dome homeowners, he was drawn to the unusual architecture and saw it as a creative opportunity.

The rounded structure and porthole windows inspired him to go all out with a UFO theme, from green lights to space-themed arcade games.

The intrigue: Demand for the UFO dome soars when hurricanes hit, DeFilippi says. People who've taken shelter in the dome say they couldn't tell they were riding out a hurricane from inside, evening during peak winds.

The other side: Repairs are difficult, DeFilippi says. Finding experts and the right materials isn't as easy as replacing a typical shingle roof. His dome is made from Fiberglas-like material and steel.

What they're saying: Natural Spaces Domes, a Minnesota-based company with customers across the country, has seen demand surge in recent years. Owner Dennis Odin Johnson tells Axios he's doubled his staff and expects to sell around 40 domes this year, up from 20 last year.

"Our clients are looking for something different, and they're attuned to climate change," Johnson says.

The big picture: With fewer flat walls and its round shape, domes can weather severe winds and heavier snowfall while using less heating and cooling energy than a conventional house, Johnson says.

Also, the entire exterior can be built with fire-resistant material.

By the numbers: A completed dome is generally 5-to-15% less expensive to build, requiring 60% less lumber than a standard house of the same size, according to Johnson.

For an average-size dome, completed building costs range from $350,000 to $450,000 in rural areas, with costs up to 50% higher in cities and suburbs, he says.

Editor's note: The photo caption was corrected to show the photo is courtesy of Michael DeFilippi, not Michael Lynn.

Here's what it's like owning a UFO-inspired dome home in Florida

Michael Lynn bought his dome home in Lake Placid in 2021. He converted it into a UFO-themed Airbnb.

Photo: Courtesy of Airbnb/Michael DeFilippi

More people are talking about dome homes and disaster-proof designs as a solution to climate threats.Why it matters: Experts say <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="increasing extreme weather" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" data-vars-content-id="bd916bdf-e3f7-403e-b47c-a966afb631ff" data-vars-headline="Here&#x27;s what it&#x27;s like owning a UFO-inspired dome home in Florida" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/energy-environment/climate-change" target="_self">increasing extreme weather</a> could give mass-market appeal to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="dome structures" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/07/25/climate-change-geodesic-domes-future-homes" data-vars-content-id="bd916bdf-e3f7-403e-b47c-a966afb631ff" data-vars-headline="Here&#x27;s what it&#x27;s like owning a UFO-inspired dome home in Florida" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/07/25/climate-change-geodesic-domes-future-homes" target="_self">dome structures</a>, which are relatively cheap to build and resilient against hurricane-force winds, Axios&#x27; Cuneyt Dil writes.

Shiplap, barn doors, reclaimed wood, black hardware and ceiling beams — those are the hallmarks of a modern farmhouse, says Sterling Ridge Properties co-owner Laura Scarpinato. And they're gaining traction in Tampa Bay's suburbs.

Why it matters: Modern farmhouses have dethroned McMansions as the suburban dream home.

Driving the news: The breezy, neutral style was popularized 10 years ago when Chip and Joanna Gaines launched HGTV's "Fixer Upper."

What they're saying: The fact that it's "comforting and fairly easy to achieve" is part of the appeal of the modern farmhouse style, says Scarpinato, who worked on a modern farmhouse project in Tampa.

But she recommends homeowners focus less on sticking strictly to a specific style, and instead "always to go with things you love that give you joy, [because] your home needs to bring you a sense of calm and happiness."

The big picture: Retailers and home builders jumped on the bandwagon to give consumers what they want.

Target's home goods section is stocked with farmhouse-inspired Magnolia and Studio McGee collections.

The style dominates new-build communities around the country.

Of note: Some design experts predict the trend is here to stay.

The ease of replicating the look "has played a significant role in the phenomenon of the modern farmhouse," says Veronica Valencia, host of HGTV's "Revealed."

"As a homeowner, when you look at a simple modern farmhouse room, you immediately feel like, 'Oh! I can tackle that!' There are no bells and whistles to it. … It's simple and familiar," Valencia says.

If you want to incorporate the style at home, here are Valencia's top tips:

🎨 Paint your walls light, bright white.

🪑 Accessorize with antiques and modern lighting.

🖼 Frame large, contemporary prints with natural wood.

🔨 Install shiplap vertically instead of horizontally and then paint with your favorite color.

Some experts have already declared the death of the modern farmhouse movement, but Pinterest searches related to the style have exploded since last summer.

Between the lines: The average consumer isn't ready to quit the approachable style.

What they're saying: "Pinners are also putting their own spin on the trend to make spaces feel like their own," says Swasti Sarna, the Global Director of Data Insights at Pinterest.

"Moody farmhouse" and "vintage farmhouse" are both trending.

Modern farmhouse design takes Tampa Bay suburbs

The "Fixer Upper"-fueled trend has reached Florida.

A house with wood doors, white beams and an open patio is reflected in a pool in the evening

A modern farmhouse in Tampa by Sterling Ridge Custom Home Builder. Photo: Courtesy of Seamus Payne

Shiplap, barn doors, reclaimed wood, black hardware and ceiling beams — those are the hallmarks of a modern farmhouse, says <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Sterling Ridge Properties" data-vars-click-url="https://www.sterlingtampa.com/" data-vars-content-id="e767d2fa-4e2e-42e1-ad78-6c1df10dcad8" data-vars-headline="Modern farmhouse design takes Tampa Bay suburbs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.sterlingtampa.com/" target="_blank">Sterling Ridge Properties</a> co-owner Laura Scarpinato. And they&#x27;re gaining traction in Tampa Bay&#x27;s suburbs.Why it matters: Modern farmhouses have <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="dethroned McMansions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/realestate/modern-farmhouse-suburbs.html" data-vars-content-id="e767d2fa-4e2e-42e1-ad78-6c1df10dcad8" data-vars-headline="Modern farmhouse design takes Tampa Bay suburbs" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/realestate/modern-farmhouse-suburbs.html" target="_blank">dethroned McMansions</a> as the suburban dream home.

Converting empty Tampa Bay buildings into apartments could provide more housing near urban cores, but reimagining the spaces isn't easy.

Why it matters: Tampa Bay is recovering better than most, but we're also experiencing one of the largest housing shortages in the country as our population continues to boom.

Driving the news: Downtown Tampa foot traffic is at 83.8% of pre-pandemic 2019 levels, Axios' Alex Fitzpatrick and Kavya Beheraj report.

What's happening: We're not getting any more land. Developers are eyeing underutilized commercial spaces to replace with much-needed housing.

Zoom in: St. Pete-based HP Capital Group secured the state's first project of this kind after the Live Local Act, co-founder Nick Hansen tells Axios. The act says cities must allow for multifamily housing in commercial, industrial or mixed zoning areas, so long as 40% of units are affordable.

HP Capital Group bought the former Tibbetts Lumber yard in 2021 and plans to turn it into 264 affordable housing apartments that'll be available in summer 2025.

"This one's a unicorn," Hansen says of the site, which is next to Gibbs High School, along a bus line and the Pinellas Trail, and less than a mile from a Walmart Supercenter.

Current view of the Tibbetts Lumber yard site. Photo: Courtesy of Kathryn Varn

The intrigue: Unlike many other post-pandemic downtowns, St. Pete has managed to maintain its vibrant core.

Developers here are eyeing underused spaces on the outskirts of downtown for conversions, Hansen says.

It's all about the land. He expects to see more commercial spaces torn down to make room for housing.

"It's going to happen; it has to. We need more space for people to live," he says.

Yes, but: These projects are near-impossible without tax incentives and local grants.

When HP Capital Group proposed the project in 2021, their budget was $58 million. The estimated cost of construction materials since then has surged $19 million, pushing the budget to $82 million.

"It barely makes sense for us to do this as it is," Hansen tells Axios. But local laws make 87% of the units tax-free, and they'll be able to get some money back on materials through tax reimbursement programs.

What we're watching: The trend is poised to grow as more cities roll out programs to incentivize conversion projects, according to Steven Paynter at Gensler, a global design and architecture firm.

Old Tampa Bay commercial buildings are being converted into apartments

Tampa Bay is recovering better than most, but we're also experiencing one of the largest housing shortages in the country.

Illustration of a hand holding a key surrounded by abstract shapes. 

Converting empty Tampa Bay buildings into apartments could provide more housing near urban cores, but reimagining the spaces isn&#x27;t easy.Why it matters: Tampa Bay is recovering better than most, but we&#x27;re also experiencing one of the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="largest housing shortages" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/tampa-bay/2023/06/29/tampa-bay-households-doubling-up-need-affordable-housing" data-vars-content-id="f748d8d8-1928-4816-9fe7-62470c136f5c" data-vars-headline="Old Tampa Bay commercial buildings are being converted into apartments" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/tampa-bay/2023/06/29/tampa-bay-households-doubling-up-need-affordable-housing" target="_self">largest housing shortages</a> in the country as our <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="population continues to boom" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/tampa-bay/2023/04/07/florida-population-growth-tampa-bay" data-vars-content-id="f748d8d8-1928-4816-9fe7-62470c136f5c" data-vars-headline="Old Tampa Bay commercial buildings are being converted into apartments" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/tampa-bay/2023/04/07/florida-population-growth-tampa-bay" target="_self">population continues to boom</a>.

Brianna Crane

Featured stories

Expect more new apartments across Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay buyers don't want your fixer-upper

Modern farmhouse design takes Tampa Bay suburbs

Old Tampa Bay commercial buildings are being converted into apartments

Here's what it's like owning a UFO-inspired dome home in Florida