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Data: Zillow Economic Research; Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

It'll take the average Washingtonian about 12 years to save up for a 10% down payment on the typical home, Zillow data shows. And in the Seattle metro area it's even longer: 13.3 years.

That accounts for people saving 5% monthly of the state's median household income, which Zillow estimated as $97,000.

Why it matters: Affordability could be a "major driver of cross-country moves," as buyers seek a lifestyle within their means, Zillow economists say.

By the numbers: The U.S. average is 8.9 years, with states like Iowa as low as 5.2 years and Hawaii as high as 18.4.

Between the lines: The share of first-time buyers in the U.S. has shrunk to a record low as inventory and affordability issues persist, according to the National Association of Realtors.

First-timers are also waiting longer to buy; the median first-time buyer age jumped from 33 to 36 from 2021 to 2022, the latest data shows.

Of note: The majority of Americans believe it's the worst time ever to buy a house.

The big picture: Saving enough for a down payment is the biggest barrier to entry, says Brandi Snowden, a director at the National Association of Realtors.

Homebuyers aren't putting as much money down as they were at the height of the housing frenzy, Axios' Emily Peck reports.

Many would-be-buyers are saddled with debt, including student loans. 

The intrigue: 18.6% of area home sales were made in cash in April, as the share of U.S. cash buyers reached a nine-year high, new Redfin data shows.

Saving a home down payment takes 12 years, on average, in Washington

It's even longer in Seattle, according to Zillow data.

Homeownership

Green choropleth map showing the average years it takes a household to afford a 10% down payment on a 40-year fixed mortgage, by state, as of May 31, 2023. The U.S. average is 8.9 years, with states like Iowa being as low as 5.2 years and Hawaii as high as 18.4.

It&#x27;ll take the average Washingtonian about 12 years to save up for a 10% down payment on the typical home, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Zillow data shows" data-vars-click-url="https://www.zillow.com/research/understanding-affordability-32538/" data-vars-content-id="3b0ad229-81d6-4e0c-ac8d-3e22a0137995" data-vars-headline="Saving a home down payment takes 12 years, on average, in Washington" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.zillow.com/research/understanding-affordability-32538/" target="_blank">Zillow data shows</a>. And in the Seattle metro area it&#x27;s even longer: 13.3 years.<ul><li>That accounts for people saving 5% monthly of the state&#x27;s median household income, which Zillow estimated as $97,000.</li></ul>

Real Estate

Roughly 33% of homes in the Seattle metro area were worth at least $1 million in June this year — down from just over 39% a year ago, but still a much higher percentage than seen in most U.S cities, per a new report from Redfin.

Why it matters: In most of the country, low inventory is pushing up prices and sending more homes into seven-figure territory.

Nearly 1 in 10 U.S. homes were valued at $1 million or more in June, a share close to last summer's all-time high and up from a 12-month low in February, according to Redfin.

Of note: Washington's slice of million-dollar plus homes rose from more than 6% in June 2019 to about 16% in June 2023, Redfin's data shows.

In King County so far this year, 7% of all homes sold are valued at $2 million or more, John Manning, the owner of RE/MAX Gateway in Seattle, told Axios.

Manning said the decline in the share of million dollar homes for sale in the Seattle area is reflective of the overall reduction in the number of homes for sale across the country at all price points.

Yes, but: $1 million may buy a luxury home in most U.S. cities, but not in Seattle and King County, where that's not much above the midpoint of housing values, Manning said.

By the numbers: The median price of homes in King County year to date is $793,000, down from a pandemic era high of $820,000 in 2022, according to RE/MAX numbers.

Compare that to the typical home value nationally of $349,679, which is at an all-time high, according to Zillow spokesperson Gina Cole.

Zoom out: Parts of New England gained million-dollar homes fastest, but several California cities had higher shares with San Francisco posting the most at more than 81%.

Between the lines: Rising prices may be a boon for millions of homeowners who have seen big gains in equity in recent years, Axios' Emily Peck reports. But with mortgage rates at a 20-year high, many Americans feel priced out of the housing market.

One third of Seattle homes are worth at least $1 million

That's down from 39% a year ago, real estate data shows.

Illustration of a heavy golden house, glimmering. 

Roughly 33% of homes in the Seattle metro area were worth at least $1 million in June this year — down from just over 39% a year ago, but still a much higher percentage than seen in most U.S cities, per a new report from Redfin.Why it matters: In most of the country, low inventory is <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="pushing up prices" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/17/housing-prices-affordability-rise-fall-2023-goldman-sachs" data-vars-content-id="4399d097-00ff-4160-9526-7930c0764013" data-vars-headline="One third of Seattle homes are worth at least $1 million" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/17/housing-prices-affordability-rise-fall-2023-goldman-sachs" target="_self">pushing up prices</a> and sending more homes into seven-figure territory.

News

Caption: Data: RentCafe analysis of Yardi Matrix data; Note: Analysis includes U.S. metro areas (defined by Yardi Matrix market boundaries) with the most apartments located in multifamily buildings of 50 units or more; Map: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

New apartments in and around Seattle have much less square footage than the national average, with new units built here ranking among the smallest in the country.

Why it matters: Apartment sizes are shrinking nationally, despite a trend that saw rental units get bigger during the early part of the work-from-home era.

By the numbers: The average size of newer Seattle apartments is 659 square feet, about 26% smaller than the 2022 national average of 887 square feet, per a new report from listing service RentCafe.

Among 100 metro areas analyzed, the Seattle region had the smallest-sized new units, according to RentCafe's analysis.

The big picture: Nationwide, newly built apartments shed 30 square feet on average compared to 2021, per the report.

That sharp decrease was fueled in part by more studios and one-bedroom apartments entering the market, researchers found, analyzing the 100 metro areas with the most high-density units.

Flashback: In 2020 and 2021, demand for more space resulted in larger unit configurations, RentCafe analyst Adina Dragos tells Axios.

"Fast forward to 2022, the demand for more apartments prompted developers to accommodate more units in their projects," Dragos says.

Case in point: Fifty-seven percent of apartments completed last year were small units across the U.S.

What we're watching: Apartments under construction.

As the market keeps fluctuating post-pandemic, their size could signal whether the trend of smaller rentals will stick.

New Seattle apartments are some of the country's smallest

Among 100 metro areas, the Seattle region had the smallest-sized new units built from 2013 to 2022, an analysis finds.

Housing

New apartments in and around Seattle have much less square footage than the national average, with new units built here ranking among the smallest in the country.Why it matters: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Apartment sizes are shrinking" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/14/smaller-apartments-flooding-market" data-vars-content-id="53692eb0-71bd-4e81-bfc5-966f5b3112ab" data-vars-headline="New Seattle apartments are some of the country&#x27;s smallest" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/03/14/smaller-apartments-flooding-market" target="_self">Apartment sizes are shrinking</a> nationally, despite a trend that saw rental units<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" get bigger" data-vars-click-url="https://www.wsj.com/articles/supersize-apartments-are-back-in-demand-11624964401" data-vars-content-id="53692eb0-71bd-4e81-bfc5-966f5b3112ab" data-vars-headline="New Seattle apartments are some of the country&#x27;s smallest" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/supersize-apartments-are-back-in-demand-11624964401" target="_blank"> get bigger</a> during the early part of the<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" work-from-home" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/15/census-bureau-work-from-home-pandemic-labor" data-vars-content-id="53692eb0-71bd-4e81-bfc5-966f5b3112ab" data-vars-headline="New Seattle apartments are some of the country&#x27;s smallest" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2022/09/15/census-bureau-work-from-home-pandemic-labor" target="_self"> work-from-home</a> era.

Local experts predict 2023 will bring lower home prices to the Seattle-area market. 

1. Houses will flood the market this spring.

Inventory in King County is expected to be "higher than we've seen over the past three years," Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Seattle-based Windermere Real Estate, tells Axios.

J. Lennox Scott, CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, forecasts a peak of new inventory during the pre-summer months of May and June.

Gardner predicts home prices will continue to slow following the frenetic markets of 2020 and 2021.

"With inflation starting to cool, mortgage rates are modestly pulling back, which is good news for home buyers," Gardner says.

Buyers can expect a wider selection of homes to choose from, plus fewer multiple-offer situations with premium pricing, Scott says.

3. Mortgage rates will still pose a challenge.

Those buyers who do get in the market will have more negotiation power. But high interest rates and other economic factors may chill demand, says John Manning, managing broker at RE/MAX Gateway.

"At the same time, homeowners that purchased or refinanced in recent years will be less likely to sell, with many opting to hang onto their low mortgage rates," Manning tells Axios.

Seattle home prices may cool in 2023

Experts also predict buyers can expect a wider selection of homes to choose from.

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Local experts predict 2023 will bring lower home prices to the Seattle-area market. Here&#x27;s what they&#x27;re saying.

Data: Redfin; Note: Metro divisions are subdivisions of metropolitan areas; Chart: Axios Visuals

Around 63% of Seattle-area homes in July were snapped up in two weeks or less, according to Redfin data shared with Axios.

That's far above the national average, which saw roughly 41% of listings marked pending, contingent or sold within that window, Redfin found.

Why it matters: Houses that stay on the market for more than a month are usually overpriced or in need of major work, according to Redfin deputy chief economist Taylor Marr.

In July, homes in the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett metro area went off-market after a median of eight days, per the real estate brokerage.

Yes, but: Self-identified fixer-uppers are typically selling for less — and more slowly — than expected, according to Zillow data shared with Axios.

Across the U.S., listings that mention "fixer-upper" — 0.3% of sales in the first half of the year — sold at a 3.1% discount and took 3.2 days longer to sell relative to expectations, per Zillow.

Listings pegged as "remodeled" or "renovated," which accounted for 24.1% of U.S. sales, sold at a 1.2% premium and 1.8 days faster than expected.

What's happening: Homebuyers already hampered by gravity-defying prices and mortgage rates don't want to spring for a place that looks like an HGTV "before" photo.

"The homes need to show well to sell quickly," Robert Burns, president of Coldwell Banker Bain, told Axios.

Zoom in: Burns said buyers are "really stretching their purchasing power" in the Seattle metro area — particularly in King County, where the median sale price was $821,000 last month, per the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

That means prospective buyers don't want to be worried that they'll immediately have to shell out thousands of dollars or more for a new roof or other major project, he said.

Be smart: "Fixer-upper" listings comprised 0.1% of sales in the Seattle area in the first half of 2023, per Zillow data, while those advertised as redone made up 26.6%.

Burns said that older homes that are redone or remodeled are selling just as fast as new construction, given the persistently high demand for homes in the region.

The bottom line: If you're a homeowner thinking of selling and don't want your place to sit on the market for weeks, spruce it up a bit.

"Most home buyers right now simply don't have enough money left over to invest in major repairs or remodeling," Redfin's Marr told The Wall Street Journal.

Seattle-area homes are selling fast — typically in 8 days

A bar chart showing the share of homes that go off the market within 2 weeks, by metro division. Cincinnati leads with 70% of homes in July going off the market in two weeks, while Seattle is second with 63.4% of homes going off the market within two weeks.

Around 63% of Seattle-area homes in July were snapped up in two weeks or less, according to Redfin data shared with Axios.<ul><li>That&#x27;s far above the national average, which saw roughly 41% of listings marked pending, contingent or sold within that window, Redfin found.</li></ul>

Sami Sparber

Featured stories

Seattle-area homes are selling fast — typically in 8 days

One third of Seattle homes are worth at least $1 million

Saving a home down payment takes 12 years, on average, in Washington

New Seattle apartments are some of the country's smallest

Seattle home prices may cool in 2023