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Data: Zillow Economic Research; Map: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals

It'll take the typical San Diegan more than 18 years to save for a 10% down payment on the typical area home, Zillow data shows.

That's by saving 5% of the median household income ($96,000) every month, or about $400 per month.

Why it matters: In 2022, California was the state people most often moved away from, according to a recent analysis by real estate company Home Bay.

But, but, but: More than a quarter of those polled said California would be their dream state to live in if money wasn't an issue.

What's happening: It's getting harder for first-time homebuyers in San Diego given record high prices, elevated interest rates and low inventory, according to Julie Chang, a local agent with Pacific Sotheby's International Realty.

Meanwhile, there's not much to buy, in part, because of under-building and current homeowners don't have incentive to sell.

Many existing homeowners locked in low interest rates years ago and have increased home values and limited property taxes from Proposition 13, so could end up paying more to move, even if they're looking to downsize or rent, Chang said.

By the numbers: Zillow's research uses a San Diego home valued at $878,800  — the 4th highest in the country, behind San Jose, San Francisco and Los Angeles.

$4,546 is the median mortgage payment with 20% down.

Homebuyers should also expect to pay an extra 3% in closing costs.

Nationwide, the average time needed to save for a 10% down payment is 8.9 years. It's 16.5 years in California.

Yes, but: Down payments can be as low as 0-3.5% for first-time home buyers, military personnel and others depending on the loan.

Between the lines: The share of first-time buyers in the U.S. has shrunk to a record low as inventory and affordability issues persist, according to the National Association of Realtors.

First-timers are also waiting longer to buy; the median first-time buyer age jumped from 33 to 36 from 2021 to 2022, the latest data shows.

The big picture: Saving enough for a down payment is the biggest barrier to entry, says Brandi Snowden, a director at the National Association of Realtors.

Many would-be-buyers are saddled with debt, including student loans, car loans and credit card debt.

Homebuyers aren't putting as much money down as they did at the height of the housing frenzy, Axios' Emily Peck reports.

What they're saying: "It's very competitive … If you don't have a lot of money to put down or savings that can be a deciding factor as to why you don't get picked," Chang said.

The bottom line: Prospective homebuyers should contact a realtor and lender before looking to buy a house to understand what they can afford, not just what they qualify for, and build a personal strategy to achieve their goals, she said.

Be smart: Chang offered some tips for future homebuyers...

Save for down payment and closing costs, plus an emergency fund for unexpected repairs or life events.

Spend time in the community or neighborhood before buying there.

Be able to hold a property for 7-10 years, whether that's living in it or renting it, to see the market cycle through.

Consider house-hacking with 2-4 units to help cover the cost of living.

Bring contractors and realtors to the property to understand things in the house like the roof or water heater.

A first home should be a stepping stone, not a dream home.

Saving for a San Diego home can take nearly two decades

It'll take San Diegans about 18 years to save for a 10% down payment on the typical area home.

Housing

It&#x27;ll take the typical San Diegan more than 18 years to save for a 10% down payment on the typical area home, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Zillow data" data-vars-click-url="https://link.axios.com/click/32040550.11/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuemlsbG93LmNvbS9yZXNlYXJjaC91bmRlcnN0YW5kaW5nLWFmZm9yZGFiaWxpdHktMzI1MzgvP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1zZW5kdG9fbG9jYWxuZXdzbGV0dGVydGVzdCZzdHJlYW09dG9w/64428ea07086b06634c240ffB60ffbffd" data-vars-content-id="3f1419fb-3784-40db-a80a-e36163b5e867" data-vars-headline="Saving for a San Diego home can take nearly two decades" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://link.axios.com/click/32040550.11/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuemlsbG93LmNvbS9yZXNlYXJjaC91bmRlcnN0YW5kaW5nLWFmZm9yZGFiaWxpdHktMzI1MzgvP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1zZW5kdG9fbG9jYWxuZXdzbGV0dGVydGVzdCZzdHJlYW09dG9w/64428ea07086b06634c240ffB60ffbffd" target="_blank">Zillow data</a> shows.<ul><li>That&#x27;s by saving 5% of the median household income ($96,000) every month, or about $400 per month.</li></ul>

Real Estate

The market for newly built homes is thriving nationwide as fewer homeowners want to sell, but new-construction options for San Diegans remain limited and expensive.

What's happening: First-time home buyers may be wooed by the financial incentives and designs of new developments, rather than the existing housing supply, Frank Powell, president for the San Diego Association of Realtors, told Axios.

Why it matters: With U.S. mortgage rates at a 22-year high, golden handcuffs are locking up housing inventory, fueling buyers' appetite for new builds, according to real estate experts.

But San Diego is struggling with a severe housing shortage and there aren't enough new homes being built to keep up with demand, especially those that are affordable, Powell said.

The big picture: Sales of existing U.S. homes, the great majority of those sold nationally, slid nearly 17% from a year earlier, while new home sales soared almost 32%, per July figures.

Zoom in: The number of new homes sold in the West rose 60% in July compared to a year earlier, per U.S. Census data.

Meanwhile, existing home sales fell nearly 13% during that time, according to regional figures from the National Association of Realtors.

Image credit: U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Axios Visuals

Reality check: In San Diego, there's a market for those who want to buy new, custom homes, but there aren't sprawling developments popping up like in other cities, according to Powell.

And while existing home sales are down almost 20% from last year locally, there hasn't been a crash as prices are higher and realtors still get multiple offers per listing.

It's slower because there's nothing to sell with inventory down, he said.

State of play: The new-build boost comes after rising interest rates curbed pandemic-driven home buying demand.

Builder confidence is now at its highest level since June 2022, having declined every month last year, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

What we're watching: Some builders are selling smaller, more affordable houses to lure first-time buyers.

Go deeper: Old houses now cost as much as new houses

San Diego's new builds can't meet housing demand

Despite a housing shortage, new-construction options for San Diegans remain limited and expensive.

Illustration of construction workers analyzing a house on top of a stack of money.

Real estate

The market for <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="newly built homes is thriving nationwide" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/miami/2023/09/06/new-builds-gain-popularity-miami-florida-south" data-vars-content-id="a6ec71d6-f744-449b-8345-7064a116bd41" data-vars-headline="San Diego&#x27;s new builds can&#x27;t meet housing demand" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/miami/2023/09/06/new-builds-gain-popularity-miami-florida-south" target="_self">newly built homes is thriving nationwide</a> as fewer homeowners want to sell, but new-construction options for San Diegans remain <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="limited and expensive" data-vars-click-url="https://wallethub.com/edu/most-affordable-cities-for-home-buyers/121950" data-vars-content-id="a6ec71d6-f744-449b-8345-7064a116bd41" data-vars-headline="San Diego&#x27;s new builds can&#x27;t meet housing demand" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://wallethub.com/edu/most-affordable-cities-for-home-buyers/121950" target="_blank">limited and expensive</a>.What&#x27;s happening: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="First-time home buyers may be wooed" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/27/mortgage-rates-first-time-homebuyers" data-vars-content-id="a6ec71d6-f744-449b-8345-7064a116bd41" data-vars-headline="San Diego&#x27;s new builds can&#x27;t meet housing demand" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/27/mortgage-rates-first-time-homebuyers" target="_self">First-time home buyers may be wooed</a> by the financial incentives and designs of new developments, rather than the existing housing supply, Frank Powell, president for the San Diego Association of Realtors, told Axios.

Sami Sparber

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San Diego's new builds can't meet housing demand

Saving for a San Diego home can take nearly two decades