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Axios Richmond Thought Bubble

Axios Richmond

With pending home sales falling and asking price decreases more common, Richmond's real estate market is showing early signs of slowing down. 

Why it matters: We keep hearing a market crash is coming, but so far, local data doesn't support that claim.

Yes, but: Monthly data shows early signs of a cooler market, even if it's slight. 

What's happening: From May 2021 to May 2022, new listings were down 12% and pending sales were down 9.3%.

More buyers are holding off as home ownership becomes too expensive — home prices are up 22.6% from June 2021 and mortgage rates recently surpassed 5% for the first time in 10 years.

More sellers are dropping their asking price. There was a 5.2 percentage point increase in price reductions year over year in May, according to Redfin.

Zoom out: Nationally, mortgage applications were down 24%, and on average, 6.5% of sellers dropped their asking price each week in June, per Redfin's latest market update.

In June, national pending home sales were down 13% from this time last year, the largest decline since May 2020, Redfin's report stated.

Be smart: Inventory is still critically low overall, which continues to push home prices up.

What we're watching: New listings and pending sales. If more listings flood the market this summer and buyers don't bite, that's when we would start to see more power shift into buyers' hands.

Richmond's real estate market is cooling, slightly

From May 2021 to May 2022, new listings were down 12% and pending sales were down 9.3%.

Illustration of a downward trend line over a house

With pending home sales falling and asking price decreases more common, Richmond&#x27;s real estate market is showing early signs of slowing down. Why it matters: We keep hearing a market crash is coming, but so far, local data doesn&#x27;t support that claim.

Real Estate

Pumpkin spice lattes are back, which means it's time to work on your fall bucket list. Here are some ideas to get you started.

1. Go apple picking at Carter Mountain Orchard.

The family-run orchard has been around for more than 100 years, with U-pick peaches and apples. After your apple-picking adventure, grab some apple cider doughnuts from the country store and get a slushie from the Bold Rock taproom.

Apples are available mid-August through November. You can find the varieties currently available here.

Details: The orchard is open 9am-6pm daily, and tickets are required on peak fall weekends. You can buy them here. 

Address: 1435 Carters Mountain Trail, Charlottesville.

Photo courtesy of Carter Mountain Orchard

2. Hoist a stein at St. Benedict Oktoberfest.

Expect German cuisine, music and dancing, Christkindlmarkt, children's activities and lots of beer. 

The festival runs Sept. 16-18 at 300 N. Sheppard St.

The two-night, Bavarian-style festival features steinholding, live music, polka, lots of beer, German foods and kids' activities. 

 The festival runs Sept. 23-24 at Maymont (1000 Westover Road).

4. Go leaf peeping at Shenandoah National Park.

Drive along Skyline Drive or hike one of the many routes that make up the over 500 miles of Shenandoah trails. Some ideas include:

Big Meadows Area: 1.4-mile moderate roundtrip hike.

Compton Gap Area: 2.4-mile moderate roundtrip hike.

Dickey Ridge Area: 1.2-mile easy circuit.

Hawksbill Area: 2.9-mile moderate circuit. 

Keyser Run Area: 7.4-mile strenuous circuit.

Whiteoak Canyon Area: 4.6-mile moderate roundtrip hike.

shenandoah mountain leaves changing color 

5. See DJ Grandmaster Flash at 2nd Street Festival.

Celebrate the historic Jackson Ward neighborhood with the 34th annual festival Oct. 1-2. Expect kids' activities, food vendors, live performances and an antique car show.

There are plenty of patches to choose from, including: 

Ashland Berry Farm (12607 Old Ridge Road).

Chesterfield Berry Farm (26002 Pear Orchard Road).

For the 18th year, the Richmond Folk Festival promises five stages with performances from artists around the world. Expect more than 30 vendors serving up international cuisine, from Caribbean jerk chicken to Filipino adobo. 

8. Lean into spooky season with a haunted attraction.

From haunted amusement parks to ghost tours, here are some frightening festivities:

Terror on the Farm (12607 Old Ridge Road, Beaverdam).

Creepy Hollow Scream Park (4437 Stone Horse Creek Road, Glen Allen).

Eerie Nights ghost tour (100 N. 17th St., Richmond).

Halloween Haunt at Kings Dominion (16000 Theme Park Way, Doswell).

9. Head to Hanover Avenue for trick-or-treating.

Put on your best costume and stroll around the 1900 block of Hanover Avenue with hundreds of other Halloween fanatics. 

Other trick-or-treat spots include the Church Hill and Oregon Hill neighborhoods. 

Or attend the All Saints Theater Company's 17th annual parade.

10. Vineyard hop along the Monticello Wine Trail.

Romanticize your life and spend a day sipping wine while overlooking rolling hills covered in fall leaves. Some options include:

Jefferson Vineyards: Virginia's first wine company might be a good place to start your wine tour. Sip a flight al fresco surrounded by gardens.

Address: 1353 Thomas Jefferson Parkway, Charlottesville.

Pippin Hill Farm & Vineyards: For elevated cuisine and some of the most beautiful views, head to this popular winery. 

Hours: 11am-5pm daily (closed the first Monday of each month).

Glass House Winery: This boutique winery has a unique tropical (and very Instagrammable) greenhouse-like setting.

Hours: 12-5:30pm Wednesday-Thursday, 12-9pm Friday, 12-8pm Saturday, 12-5:30pm Sunday.

Address: 5898 Free Union Road, Free Union.

See all 40 vineyards and wineries on the trail here.

10 must-do fall activities in and around Richmond

Go apple picking at Carter Mountain Orchard in Charlottesville or stay local and attend Richmond's St. Benedict Oktoberfest.

view from skyline drive in shenandoah national park

The view from Skyline Drive  in the Shenandoah National Park. Photo: Karen Bleier/AFP via Getty Images

Virginia

Pumpkin spice lattes are back, which means it&#x27;s time to work on your fall bucket list. Here are some ideas to get you started.<h5>1. Go apple picking at <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Carter Mountain Orchard" data-vars-click-url="https://chilesfamilyorchards.com/carter-mountain-orchard/" data-vars-content-id="f801fe67-28e0-4fc0-968d-2d8f8f591f1e" data-vars-headline="10 must-do fall activities in and around Richmond" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://chilesfamilyorchards.com/carter-mountain-orchard/" target="_blank">Carter Mountain Orchard</a>.</h5>The family-run orchard has been around for more than 100 years, with U-pick peaches and apples. After your apple-picking adventure, grab some apple cider doughnuts from the country store and get a slushie from the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Bold Rock taproom" data-vars-click-url="https://boldrock.com/visit/carter-mountain/" data-vars-content-id="f801fe67-28e0-4fc0-968d-2d8f8f591f1e" data-vars-headline="10 must-do fall activities in and around Richmond" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://boldrock.com/visit/carter-mountain/" target="_blank">Bold Rock taproom</a>.

Things to Do

Construction started earlier this year on The Lake, the massive mixed-use development with a surf park in Chesterfield on Gentio Road near River City Sportsplex.  

State of play: Phase 1 kicked off with building roads and utilities, which are set to be complete this month, Richmond-based developer Brett Burkhart of Flatwater Ventures told Axios. 

For the rest of 2022, Flatwater Ventures will focus on building commercial space, which will include restaurants, retail and the 13-acre, human-made lake.

Phase 1, including the lake, should open to the public by the end of 2023, Burkhart said.

Of note: The development is adjacent to the county's Genito/288 Special Focus Area, an area that Chesterfield designated for long-term development planning because of its potential.

The big picture: The Lake is a project that has been kicking around Chesterfield for a few years and finally got the official green light last year after the developers agreed to scale back the retail portion of the project and scale up the residential side. 

Construction for the whole project will cost around $300 million, Burkhart told CoStar News. 

Details: The Lake will include 1,200 residential units (a mix of apartments and townhouses, starting at $500,000 for the townhouses), two hotels, restaurants, breweries, wineries, a lake, an amphitheater and a surf park.

The lake itself will have wakeboarding, an inflatable obstacle course on the water, standup paddle boarding and kayaks.

It will also have the capacity to host large-scale outdoor events like wakeboarding tournaments and triathlons, Burkhart said.

The architect behind the project, Michael Williams of Liquid Design, also designed the Whitewater Center in Charlotte, an outdoor activity center that was part of the inspiration for The Lake.

"Everybody right now is into this outdoor active lifestyle," Williams told Axios, adding that soon you won't have to drive all the way to West Virginia to get that experience.

Yes, but: The surf park will take longer to complete.

The intrigue: There are only two other surf parks in the U.S., and The Lake's will be the largest in the world. 

"It's complicated, and it's a new technology and industry," Burkhart said. But he hopes to break ground in the next 18 months.

The technology is powered by American Wave Machines PerfectSwell, according to The Lake's website, which will create various wave sizes for both beginner and advanced surfers. 

What's next: The next phase, which includes more commercial space, hotels and townhouses, is slated to start in late 2023.

The entire project will take about five years.

Karri's thought bubble: Many Richmonders probably didn't grow up surfing, but with what sounds like shark-free water, I'd be open to learning. Maybe. Is it hard? 

Everything you need to know about Chesterfield's The Lake surf park

Phase 1, including a human-made lake, should open to the public by the end of 2023. The surf park will take longer to complete.

Construction started earlier this year on <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="The Lake" data-vars-click-url="https://lakeadventures.com/" data-vars-content-id="fcffeb33-55ac-48f7-9291-88c54bf649d0" data-vars-headline="Everything you need to know about Chesterfield&#x27;s The Lake surf park" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://lakeadventures.com/" target="_blank">The Lake</a>, the massive mixed-use development with a surf park in Chesterfield on Gentio Road near <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="River City Sportsplex" data-vars-click-url="https://rivercitysportsplex.com/" data-vars-content-id="fcffeb33-55ac-48f7-9291-88c54bf649d0" data-vars-headline="Everything you need to know about Chesterfield&#x27;s The Lake surf park" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://rivercitysportsplex.com/" target="_blank">River City Sportsplex</a>. State of play: Phase 1 kicked off with building roads and utilities, which are set to be complete this month, Richmond-based developer Brett Burkhart of Flatwater Ventures told Axios.

Brianna Crane

Featured stories

10 must-do fall activities in and around Richmond

Richmond's real estate market is cooling, slightly

Everything you need to know about Chesterfield's The Lake surf park