Apr 18, 2023 - News

2 major hurricanes predicted in the Atlantic this season

Illustration of a location pin symbol combined with a hurricane symbol

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

Climate researchers predict the Atlantic will churn out 13 named storms during this year's hurricane season, according to a Colorado State University forecast released last week.

Why it matters: Researchers called the forecast "slightly below average," which could mean the Atlantic sees one less hurricane this year than it did last.

  • If correct, the forecast would also mean less than the seasonal average number of storms (14), hurricanes (seven) and major hurricanes (three) that formed from 1991 to 2020.

Driving the news: CSU's forecast is our first look this year at what may be to come when hurricane season begins June 1.

  • It's one of several professional outlooks published ahead of the season.

Yes, but: This could all change, Axios' Chelsea Brasted writes. "Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Niño and an anomalously warm tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook," the CSU report says.

Zoom in: The 2022 hurricane season brought 14 named storms to the Atlantic. Hurricane Ian, which left hundreds in North Carolina without power and killed at least four in the state, was among them.

  • This year, CSU researchers predict North Carolina has a 69% chance of being impacted by a named storm, and a 40% chance for hurricane impact.
  • The chances we're hit by a major hurricane this year are low, at just 8%.

What's next: Predictions from AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are expected to come out in the coming weeks.

The bottom line: "As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them," the report read.

  • "They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

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