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Forecast temperature departures from average for the daily high temperature on Dec. 14, 2021 from the NWS. (Weatherbell.com)

Forecast temperature departures from average for the daily high temperature on Dec. 14 from the National Weather Service. Graphic: Weatherbell.com

At least two Arkansans died Friday due to tornadic activity that started northeast of Little Rock and cut through parts of five other states.

Gov. Asa Hutchinson declared a state of emergency, giving the Arkansas Division of Emergency Management $100,000 to assist with response and clean-up.

Driving the news: December tornadoes are not unheard of, but an event of this scale and ferocity is potentially unprecedented for this region.

A strong cold front and area of low pressure created "a fairly classic setup" for tornadoes, meteorologist-in-charge Jim Reynolds of Little Rock's National Weather Service told Axios.

Threat level: Another warming trend is coming next week for the eastern U.S. According to the National Weather Service (NWS), some areas of the country may see temperatures running 20°F to 40°F above average for this time of year.

The big picture: Winter is warming faster than other seasons due to climate change. This year has the potential to be the warmest December on record for many areas, writes Axios' Andrew Freedman.

Additionally, meteorologists have observed more instances of unusually strong, stubborn areas of high pressure in recent years that have been associated with extreme weather events, including heat waves.

What they're saying: Reynolds told Axios that this week's warming trend will bring some moisture with a fairly low chance of precipitation, but that NWS isn't expecting anything like Friday night or Saturday morning.

All residents of Arkansas should be prepared for severe weather during any month of the year.

Andrew's thought bubble: Climate scientists studying how tornadoes may be changing in a warming world are focused on trends in their main ingredients. As the world warms, there is a greater supply of atmospheric instability, with warm and humid weather occurring more frequently, even in the cold season. This could favor severe thunderstorms. 

Studies show when such ingredients overlap with abundant wind shear — i.e., winds changing direction or speed with height, along with a trigger like a cold front — then large outbreaks can occur.  

Overall, there is increasing evidence that tornadoes are becoming more common in the South Central and Southeastern states, as traditional "Tornado Alley" sees a decrease in tornado days. This has tremendous implications for peoples' exposure to risk, given population growth in the region.

Go deeper: Subscribe to the free Axios Generate newsletter for more.

Several rural towns impacted by the storms will be in the process of rebuilding for the next several weeks. 

How you can help:  The American Red Cross of Missouri and Arkansas is working to help tornado victims. To learn how to volunteer, visit redcross.org/volunteer. You can donate at redcross.org, by calling 1-800-733-2767 or texting REDCROSS to 90999. 

Unusually warm, humid weather helped spark Arkansas tornadoes

Climate change

<figure><img alt="Forecast temperature departures from average for the daily high temperature on Dec. 14, 2021 from the NWS. (Weatherbell.com)" height="808" id="552142a2-0fc3-4174-900f-e11fd787430a" src="https://images.axios.com/Ugap0f4KAEvteY336KxSqyf00fA=/2021/12/13/1639357693718.png" width="984"/><figcaption>Forecast temperature departures from average for the daily high temperature on Dec. 14 from the National Weather Service. Graphic: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Weatherbell.com" data-vars-click-url="http://weatherbell.com/" data-vars-content-id="847b8c35-fccb-4d45-9974-f0164c977f30" data-vars-headline="Unusually warm, humid weather helped spark Arkansas tornadoes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://weatherbell.com/" target="_blank">Weatherbell.com</a></figcaption></figure>At least two<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" Arkansans died" data-vars-click-url="https://apnews.com/article/arkansas-asa-hutchinson-little-rock-tornadoes-8a33537d6ad7133fa8c184a6e1796f4b" data-vars-content-id="847b8c35-fccb-4d45-9974-f0164c977f30" data-vars-headline="Unusually warm, humid weather helped spark Arkansas tornadoes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://apnews.com/article/arkansas-asa-hutchinson-little-rock-tornadoes-8a33537d6ad7133fa8c184a6e1796f4b" target="_blank"> Arkansans died</a> Friday due to<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" tornadic activity" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/deaths-power-outages-midwest-slammed-tornadoes-521ab0e5-c883-4b5f-8234-85cdebae2a6c.html" data-vars-content-id="847b8c35-fccb-4d45-9974-f0164c977f30" data-vars-headline="Unusually warm, humid weather helped spark Arkansas tornadoes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/deaths-power-outages-midwest-slammed-tornadoes-521ab0e5-c883-4b5f-8234-85cdebae2a6c.html" target="_self"> tornadic activity</a> that started northeast of Little Rock and cut through parts of five other states.<ul><li>Gov. Asa Hutchinson declared a<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" state of emergency" data-vars-click-url="https://governor.arkansas.gov/images/uploads/executiveOrders/EO_21_-_18._.pdf" data-vars-content-id="847b8c35-fccb-4d45-9974-f0164c977f30" data-vars-headline="Unusually warm, humid weather helped spark Arkansas tornadoes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://governor.arkansas.gov/images/uploads/executiveOrders/EO_21_-_18._.pdf" target="_blank"> state of emergency</a>, giving the Arkansas Division of Emergency Management $100,000 to assist with response and clean-up.</li></ul>Driving the news: December tornadoes are not unheard of, but an event of this scale and ferocity is potentially unprecedented for this region.

News

Data: Climate Central; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

This winter has been Northwest Arkansas' warmest on record, with an average temperature from December through February of 43.2°F. 

Context: That's 8.2 degrees warmer than the average in winter 1970, according to a new analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration numbers from Climate Central, a nonpartisan research and communications group. 

Why it matters: Warm winters can exacerbate drought (because there's less snowmelt in the spring) and wreak havoc on crops and gardens.

The big picture: Winter is the fastest-warming season for much of the continental United States.

About 80% of the country now has at least seven more winter days with above-normal temperatures than in 1970, per Climate Central.

Driving the news: Not only are winters warming overall, but cold snaps are growing less severe and shorter in duration, the latest research shows.

That's partly because the Arctic is warming at three to four times the rate of the rest of the world.

In other words, our global refrigerator is heating up.

Of note: Meteorological winter is already over, running from December through February annually, per NOAA.

Zoom out: This winter has been especially mild across areas east of the Mississippi River. But throughout the West, it's been colder than average, reflected in the balance of daily record highs to daily record lows.

Preliminary NOAA data processed by Climate Central shows there have been 4,857 daily record highs set or tied in the lower 48 states this winter, and 4,421 daily record lows set or tied.

The bottom line: Over the coming years, most of us can expect to feel climate change's effects most acutely during the winter months.

NWA's in the thick of a record-breaking warm winter

Warm winters can exacerbate drought (because there's less snowmelt in the spring) and wreak havoc on crops and gardens.

This winter has been Northwest Arkansas&#x27; warmest on record, with an average temperature from December through February of 43.2°F. Context: That&#x27;s 8.2 degrees warmer than the average in winter 1970, according to a new analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration numbers from Climate Central, a nonpartisan research and communications group.

Andrew Freedman

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NWA's in the thick of a record-breaking warm winter

Unusually warm, humid weather helped spark Arkansas tornadoes