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A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Nashville. Written by Nate Rau and Adam Tamburin.

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Data: Redfin; Chart: Alice Feng/Axios Visuals

Sixty percent of homeowners with mortgages in Tennessee had a rate at or below 4% as of late last year, per Redfin data shared with Axios.

That's locking homeowners in place and leaving buyers with fewer homes to choose from.

Why it matters: Mortgage holders are experiencing the "golden handcuffs" phenomenon, Axios' Brianna Crane reports.

They might have a great rate now, but likely can't move without spending a lot more cash, explains Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.

By the numbers: In the Nashville metro area, buying a median-priced home in 2021, which came in at $376,990, at a 3% rate would correspond to monthly mortgage payments of $1,815, per Redfin.

At 6.4% — the average U.S. rate in May — a home at the same price would have an estimated monthly payment of $2,441 per month.

State of play: This dynamic is pinching inventory in Nashville. Although new construction has driven modest gains, inventory still remains well below 2019 levels.

"Interest rates continue to drive the market for both buyers and sellers," Kevin Wilson, president-elect of Greater Nashville Realtors, tells Axios.

"Because most homeowners either bought or refinanced with rates below 4%, they have less incentive to put their home on the market."

Wilson ties interest rates with strong sales numbers for condos, saying some buyers are skewing toward lower-cost options to make up for the rate hikes.

Zoom out: It's not just a local issue. Nine in 10 U.S. homeowners secured mortgage rates below 6% as of late 2022, per the new Redfin report. Meanwhile, mortgage rates have swung between 6% and 7% nationally in recent months.

"Golden handcuffs" pinch Nashville housing supply

Owners might have a great rate now, but likely can't move without spending a lot more.

Sixty percent of homeowners with mortgages in Tennessee had a rate at or below 4% as of late last year, per Redfin data shared with Axios.<ul><li>That&#x27;s locking homeowners in place and leaving buyers with fewer homes to choose from.</li></ul>Why it matters: Mortgage holders are experiencing the &quot;golden handcuffs&quot; phenomenon, Axios&#x27; Brianna Crane reports.

Real Estate

Temperatures are (slowly) starting to fall, and we can feel autumn approaching. It's a magical time of year — Nashville's rolling hills explode with color, pumpkin patches fill with families and beer gardens bustle.

We're pretty excited, and we wanted to share some of our favorite ways to celebrate this wonderful season the Nashville way.

1. Plan a day of fall fun at Gentry's Farm

The family farm in Franklin has plenty of pumpkins to pick, along with putt-putt, corn mazes, wagon rides, animals, a nature trail, tire swings and other kids' activities.

Hours are 1-5pm Sundays, 9am-1pm Mondays and 9am-5pm Saturdays in October.

Admission is $10 per person at the gate. 

If you're not feeling like a hike, a short drive down the Natchez Trace is a wonderful way to take in the season's beauty, all while blaring Taylor Swift (the Sad Girl Autumn Version) from the comfort of your car. 

Here are some of the best spots to take in the fall foliage. 

Beaman Park has 15 miles of hiking trails and a nature center. (5911 Old Hickory Blvd.)

Radnor Lake State Park — named Tennessee Park of the Year this week — has about 8 miles of trails. (1160 Otter Creek Rd.)

Warner Parks has 60+ miles of trails, a dog park, three dedicated horseback riding trails and more. (7311 Highway 100)

3. Spend a weekend in Franklin for the Pilgrimage Music and Cultural Festival 

Chris Stapleton and Brandi Carlile are headlining this year's festival, which runs Sept. 24-25 and features more than 50 artists. 

Other attractions include the Lil' Pilgrims stage for kids, a village/market area to relax between sets, food and drink vendors like the Farm to Turntable food truck and shopping.

Tickets start at $159 for single-day passes, $219 for two-day passes and $989 for a VIP experience all weekend.

You can cross several items off of your fall bucket list at Jackson's Orchard & Nursery. In addition to pumpkin and apple picking, it offers wagon rides, a petting zoo, pony rides and festive foods like caramel apples. 

Other options include Delvin Farms (6361 Cox Rd., College Grove) and Flying Ghost Pumpkin Patch (97 White Bridge Rd.).

5. Hype up your favorite authors at Southern Festival of Books

The 34th annual festival is back in person after two years of virtual celebrations. The free event runs Oct. 14-16. and features live performances, food trucks and more than 60 publishers and booksellers. 

6. Lean into spooky season at Gaylord Opryland Resort

This year's Goblins & Giggles lineup includes scavenger hunts with Spookley the Square Pumpkin, trick-or-treating, jack-o'-lantern displays, a haunted escape room, a spooky riverboat ride, seasonal speakeasy (ages 21+) and a Monster Mash Bash.

Expect a pumpkin village featuring three pumpkin houses and other fall decor throughout the garden, starting today through Oct. 30. (1200 Forrest Park Dr.)

Other highlights include a beer garden with special performances, a dog costume party, a Japanese Moon Viewing festival and an El Día de los Muertos celebration.

💭 Adam's thought bubble: Cheekwood memberships are one of my mom's go-to gift ideas, and if you're a frequent visitor, it quickly becomes a good deal. It's a wonderful spot to unwind with a new book or your favorite album on repeat.

Cheekwood Harvest 2021. Photo: Caitlin Harris, courtesy of Cheekwood Estate & Gardens

Chattanooga is about two hours from Nashville, tucked in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains. You can:

Take the family to the Tennessee Aquarium

Tennessee Aquarium. Photo: Alison Carmona Rau

Go ahead and block off Sunday, Nov. 27, when the Titans host the Bengals for a revenge game.

If you go: Here's where to eat, park and more.

9 must-do fall activities in and around Nashville

Plan a day of fall fun at Gentry's Farm, or do spooky season at Gaylord Opryland Resort.

El Día de Los Muertos 2021. Photo by Caitlin Harris. Courtesy of Cheekwood Estate & Gardens.

El Día de Los Muertos 2021 at Cheekwood. Photo: Caitlin Harris, courtesy of Cheekwood Estate & Gardens

Tennessee

Temperatures are (slowly) starting to fall, and we can feel autumn approaching. It&#x27;s a magical time of year — Nashville&#x27;s rolling hills explode with color, pumpkin patches fill with families and beer gardens bustle.<ul><li>We&#x27;re pretty excited, and we wanted to share some of our favorite ways to celebrate this wonderful season the Nashville way.</li></ul>

Things to Do

A real estate market crash isn't likely to happen in 2023. Here's what experts say to expect instead.

With rising inventories and longer days on the market, conditions will be easier for buyers, says Brad Copeland, 2023 president of Greater Nashville Realtors.

And for sellers, he says, getting the property "in great condition" and pricing it accurately will be key to making a sale. 

This is already starting to happen, according to Tara DeSelms with Zeitlin Sotheby’s International Realty.

"[Sellers are] negotiating repairs, paying closing costs for the buyer and being more negotiable on price," she says. 

Interest rates slowed demand the last few months, which has allowed supply to catch up. So as interest rates fall and demand rises again, 2023 should be more balanced than recent years, says Nathan Weinberg, co-founder of MW Real Estate.

Even though inventory has improved, there's still a nationwide housing deficit. New solutions will be needed to meet housing demand, DeSelms says.

"If new construction starts are not financed and permitted we may find ourselves in another seller's market sooner than we anticipated," Weinberg predicts. 

4. Home prices will steadily appreciate. 

Kevin Wilson, president-elect of Greater Nashville Realtors, says median home sales prices will keep growing, but at a slower rate than in 2022. 

And for potential buyers who couldn't compete in 2022, 2023 might be a better year with less competition, more concessions from sellers and the option to put 3-5% down, he says. 

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Nashville real estate

Experts predict a balancing market on the horizon.

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Real estate

A real estate market crash isn&#x27;t likely to happen in 2023. Here&#x27;s what experts say to expect instead.

Nashville-area home prices are continuing their modest decline, although it's still more expensive to buy now than it was a year ago, according to new data from Redfin/MLS.

Why it matters: Any relief from sky-high home prices is welcome, especially as mortgage rates creep up.

By the numbers: Nashville's median home sales price was $420,990 in January, down 6.5% from December but up 5% from last year.

Inventory was up a whopping 133% from last year.

Homes sat on the market for a median of 71 days in January, up 38 days from last year.

Zoom out: Nationally, median home sales prices have crept up 1.3% from one year ago.

The national median home sales price in January was $383,000.

Sales fell for the 12th month in a row, according to the latest from the National Association of Realtors.

As demand falls, homes sit on the market a little longer, which gives buyers more room to negotiate.

What's next: Spring — which is typically marked by high demand, more competition and higher home prices — is right around the corner.

If spring 2023 follows typical trends, we should expect home prices to rise again in the near future.

Yes, but: Experts predict 2023 will see a far less frantic housing market than in 2022.

The bottom line: We're starting to see a moderate market correction, but home values aren't in freefall.

Nashville home prices drop a bit — for now

Nashville's median home sales price was $420,990 in January.

Nashville-area home prices are continuing their <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="modest decline" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/nashville/2022/11/07/nashville-housing-market-september-2022" data-vars-content-id="a2d34be5-6b4f-4b28-9c99-a27332b4f0f6" data-vars-headline="Nashville home prices drop a bit — for now" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/nashville/2022/11/07/nashville-housing-market-september-2022" target="_self">modest decline</a>, although it&#x27;s still more expensive to buy now than it was a year ago, according to new data from Redfin/MLS.Why it matters: Any relief from sky-high home prices is welcome, especially as <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="mortgage rates creep up" data-vars-click-url="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" data-vars-content-id="a2d34be5-6b4f-4b28-9c99-a27332b4f0f6" data-vars-headline="Nashville home prices drop a bit — for now" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms" target="_blank">mortgage rates creep up</a>.

Data: Freddie Mac; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

The Nashville metro area's real estate market is starting to level off, according to the latest data from Redfin/MLS. 

Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, Nashville-area buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

What's happening: Mortgage rates started to surge in May and have since passed 6%. 

The market has changed significantly since then. 

By the numbers: Median home sales prices dropped from $467,000 to $450,000 from May to September. 

Homes are selling more slowly: They sold in 17 days on average in May. In September, the average number of days on market was 39. 

Fewer homes are selling above the list price. 19% of homes sold above list price in September, compared to 54.6% in May.

In September, 33.4% of listings dropped their asking price, up 12.4 percentage points since May. 

Yes, but: Monthly mortgage payments are significantly more expensive than they were a year ago, meaning that buying a home isn't getting cheaper.

Flash forward: But there are some indications things could shift even more. A forecast from Moody's Analytics says Nashville home prices could fall 20% from their peak prices this summer, driven in part by surging interest rates.

Moody's forecast calls for a 10% price drop nationwide.

The other side: Steve Jolly, president of Greater Nashville Realtors, tells Axios that prices are still up year-over-year, according to his organization's data. They've only fallen from earlier in 2022.

If prices continue to drop, he doesn't think they'll fall that severely. He points to the Great Recession in 2008, when Nashville home prices dipped less than the national average.

"Nashville's always done better than the nation as a whole," Jolly says of previous downturns.

Buying a house in Nashville is easier, but not cheaper

Median home sales prices dropped from $467,000 to $450,000 from May to September.

The Nashville metro area&#x27;s real estate market is starting to level off, according to the latest data from Redfin/MLS. Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, Nashville-area buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

Brianna Crane

Featured stories

"Golden handcuffs" pinch Nashville housing supply

Nashville home prices drop a bit — for now

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Nashville real estate

Buying a house in Nashville is easier, but not cheaper

9 must-do fall activities in and around Nashville