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A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Nashville. Written by Nate Rau and Adam Tamburin.

Axios Nashville Thought Bubble

Axios Nashville

Temperatures are (slowly) starting to fall, and we can feel autumn approaching. It's a magical time of year — Nashville's rolling hills explode with color, pumpkin patches fill with families and beer gardens bustle.

We're pretty excited, and we wanted to share some of our favorite ways to celebrate this wonderful season the Nashville way.

1. Plan a day of fall fun at Gentry's Farm

The family farm in Franklin has plenty of pumpkins to pick, along with putt-putt, corn mazes, wagon rides, animals, a nature trail, tire swings and other kids' activities.

Hours are 1-5pm Sundays, 9am-1pm Mondays and 9am-5pm Saturdays in October.

Admission is $10 per person at the gate. 

If you're not feeling like a hike, a short drive down the Natchez Trace is a wonderful way to take in the season's beauty, all while blaring Taylor Swift (the Sad Girl Autumn Version) from the comfort of your car. 

Here are some of the best spots to take in the fall foliage. 

Beaman Park has 15 miles of hiking trails and a nature center. (5911 Old Hickory Blvd.)

Radnor Lake State Park — named Tennessee Park of the Year this week — has about 8 miles of trails. (1160 Otter Creek Rd.)

Warner Parks has 60+ miles of trails, a dog park, three dedicated horseback riding trails and more. (7311 Highway 100)

3. Spend a weekend in Franklin for the Pilgrimage Music and Cultural Festival 

Chris Stapleton and Brandi Carlile are headlining this year's festival, which runs Sept. 24-25 and features more than 50 artists. 

Other attractions include the Lil' Pilgrims stage for kids, a village/market area to relax between sets, food and drink vendors like the Farm to Turntable food truck and shopping.

Tickets start at $159 for single-day passes, $219 for two-day passes and $989 for a VIP experience all weekend.

You can cross several items off of your fall bucket list at Jackson's Orchard & Nursery. In addition to pumpkin and apple picking, it offers wagon rides, a petting zoo, pony rides and festive foods like caramel apples. 

Other options include Delvin Farms (6361 Cox Rd., College Grove) and Flying Ghost Pumpkin Patch (97 White Bridge Rd.).

5. Hype up your favorite authors at Southern Festival of Books

The 34th annual festival is back in person after two years of virtual celebrations. The free event runs Oct. 14-16. and features live performances, food trucks and more than 60 publishers and booksellers. 

6. Lean into spooky season at Gaylord Opryland Resort

This year's Goblins & Giggles lineup includes scavenger hunts with Spookley the Square Pumpkin, trick-or-treating, jack-o'-lantern displays, a haunted escape room, a spooky riverboat ride, seasonal speakeasy (ages 21+) and a Monster Mash Bash.

Expect a pumpkin village featuring three pumpkin houses and other fall decor throughout the garden, starting today through Oct. 30. (1200 Forrest Park Dr.)

Other highlights include a beer garden with special performances, a dog costume party, a Japanese Moon Viewing festival and an El Día de los Muertos celebration.

💭 Adam's thought bubble: Cheekwood memberships are one of my mom's go-to gift ideas, and if you're a frequent visitor, it quickly becomes a good deal. It's a wonderful spot to unwind with a new book or your favorite album on repeat.

Cheekwood Harvest 2021. Photo: Caitlin Harris, courtesy of Cheekwood Estate & Gardens

Chattanooga is about two hours from Nashville, tucked in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains. You can:

Take the family to the Tennessee Aquarium

Tennessee Aquarium. Photo: Alison Carmona Rau

Go ahead and block off Sunday, Nov. 27, when the Titans host the Bengals for a revenge game.

If you go: Here's where to eat, park and more.

9 must-do fall activities in and around Nashville

Plan a day of fall fun at Gentry's Farm, or do spooky season at Gaylord Opryland Resort.

El Día de Los Muertos 2021. Photo by Caitlin Harris. Courtesy of Cheekwood Estate & Gardens.

El Día de Los Muertos 2021 at Cheekwood. Photo: Caitlin Harris, courtesy of Cheekwood Estate & Gardens

Tennessee

Temperatures are (slowly) starting to fall, and we can feel autumn approaching. It&#x27;s a magical time of year — Nashville&#x27;s rolling hills explode with color, pumpkin patches fill with families and beer gardens bustle.<ul><li>We&#x27;re pretty excited, and we wanted to share some of our favorite ways to celebrate this wonderful season the Nashville way.</li></ul>

Things to Do

A real estate market crash isn't likely to happen in 2023. Here's what experts say to expect instead.

With rising inventories and longer days on the market, conditions will be easier for buyers, says Brad Copeland, 2023 president of Greater Nashville Realtors.

And for sellers, he says, getting the property "in great condition" and pricing it accurately will be key to making a sale. 

This is already starting to happen, according to Tara DeSelms with Zeitlin Sotheby’s International Realty.

"[Sellers are] negotiating repairs, paying closing costs for the buyer and being more negotiable on price," she says. 

Interest rates slowed demand the last few months, which has allowed supply to catch up. So as interest rates fall and demand rises again, 2023 should be more balanced than recent years, says Nathan Weinberg, co-founder of MW Real Estate.

Even though inventory has improved, there's still a nationwide housing deficit. New solutions will be needed to meet housing demand, DeSelms says.

"If new construction starts are not financed and permitted we may find ourselves in another seller's market sooner than we anticipated," Weinberg predicts. 

4. Home prices will steadily appreciate. 

Kevin Wilson, president-elect of Greater Nashville Realtors, says median home sales prices will keep growing, but at a slower rate than in 2022. 

And for potential buyers who couldn't compete in 2022, 2023 might be a better year with less competition, more concessions from sellers and the option to put 3-5% down, he says. 

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Nashville real estate

Experts predict a balancing market on the horizon.

Illustration of the year 2022, with a keyhole for a zero, which zooms in so you can see through the keyhole to the year 2023.

Real estate

A real estate market crash isn&#x27;t likely to happen in 2023. Here&#x27;s what experts say to expect instead.

Real Estate

A record-setting $50 million listing is just one indicator of Nashville's growing luxury real estate market.

The big picture: Despite inventory being short, there's been more activity in the luxury range — defined here as any listing over $2 million.

In the last year, there have been 275 sales of over $2 million in the Nashville area.

In April 2022, there were 33 luxury closings with an average of 26 days on market.

The median list price in the luxury range was $3.5 million.

Chart: Axios Visuals; Source: Greater Nashville Realtors

What's happening: Every year, as home values soar and more record-breaking sales take place, the luxury list prices get even more luxe. 

Steve Fridrich, president of Fridrich & Clark Realty, said any listing over $2 million would've been called luxury two years ago. Now that minimum should be more like $4 million, he says.

What's next: Luxury market home prices are only going up.

Here are the priciest Nashville homes, right now.

Specs: 5 bedrooms, 10 bathrooms, 19,811 square feet

Features: Top-of-the-line everything, tennis courts, stunning pool and more on 59 acres

Specs: 5 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms, 8,938 square feet

Features: Library, barn, two-bed renovated guest house, all ensuite bedrooms upstairs, double-decker front porch and a movie theater, all on 22 acres

Specs: 5 bedrooms, 7 bathrooms, 11,034 square feet

Features: Pool with waterfall, outdoor living and kitchen area, and lush landscaping on over 8 acres

Photo: courtesy of listing agent Karen Russell

Specs: 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 4,374 square feet

Features: Two-story penthouse, six-car garage, floor-to-ceiling windows and sweeping views

Photo: courtesy of listing agent Richard Courtney

Nashville's luxury housing market explodes. Plus: 4 pricy listings

Despite inventory being short, there's been more activity in the luxury range.

Photo: Courtesy of listing agent Karen Russell

5836 Hillsboro Pike; Photo: courtesy of listing agent Karen Russell

A record-setting <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="$50 million listing" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/local/nashville/2022/05/13/see-inside-nashvilles-most-expensive-home-listed-at-50m" data-vars-content-id="5c527c03-51a7-4880-9e07-5cc1e7ee3c9f" data-vars-headline="Nashville&#x27;s luxury housing market explodes. Plus: 4 pricy listings" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/local/nashville/2022/05/13/see-inside-nashvilles-most-expensive-home-listed-at-50m" target="_self">$50 million listing</a> is just one indicator of Nashville&#x27;s growing luxury real estate market.The big picture: Despite inventory being short, there&#x27;s been more activity in the luxury range — defined here as any listing over $2 million.

This sprawling Chickering Road estate is the most expensive home to ever hit the market in Nashville.

Background: 1304 Chickering Rd. belongs to HCA Healthcare co-founder Tommy Frist.

The Frist family purchased the property for $2.2 million in 1993 and built the house in 2001, Axios' Nate Rau reported earlier this week.

The basics: At a cool 19,811 square feet, the estate has five bedrooms and six full and four half baths.

Price: The house is made with some of the finest craftsmanship you'll ever see, but you're paying for the grounds, says listing agent Steve Fridrich, president of Fridrich & Clark Realty.

Most lots in the area average an acre, though many on this stretch of Chickering are over 9 acres, he says. 

This 59-acre property includes tennis courts, a pool and pristine landscaping. 

Plus, an additional consecutive 9-acre lot is included in the $50 million price tag.

Design: Bunny Williams, one of the most well-respected interior designers of all time, designed the place. It's hard to believe no major changes have been made in the 21 years since it was built; the interior is truly timeless.

There's warm wood throughout the house, which makes it feel cozy, despite being palatial. You'll also see lots of playful upholstery and gorgeous wall coverings.

It has the charm of something built 100 years ago with all the modern finishes and features, Fridrich says.

The exterior is the epitome of Southern grandeur, with Georgian-style columns, numerous chimneys peering out of the roof and a double-decker porch.

 Nashville's most expensive home, listed at $50M

Nashville's most expensive home, listed at $50M views

Nashville's most expensive home, listed at $50M pool

See inside Nashville's most expensive home, listed at $50M

This sprawling Chickering Road estate is the most expensive home to ever hit the market in Nashville.Background: <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="1304 Chickering Rd" data-vars-click-url="https://fridrichandclark.com/listings/rt-2382356-1304-chickering-rd-nashville-tennessee-37215/?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=sendto_localnewslettertest&amp;stream=top" data-vars-content-id="60f62f2a-4f73-4142-98cf-24deb5b855ba" data-vars-headline="See inside Nashville&#x27;s most expensive home, listed at $50M" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://fridrichandclark.com/listings/rt-2382356-1304-chickering-rd-nashville-tennessee-37215/?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=sendto_localnewslettertest&amp;stream=top" target="_blank">1304 Chickering Rd</a>. belongs to HCA Healthcare co-founder Tommy Frist.<ul><li>The Frist family purchased the property for $2.2 million in 1993 and built the house in 2001, Axios&#x27; Nate Rau <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reported" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-nashville-ec01abcb-358a-4392-bd52-7724f31dd279.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslocal_nashville&amp;stream=top" data-vars-content-id="60f62f2a-4f73-4142-98cf-24deb5b855ba" data-vars-headline="See inside Nashville&#x27;s most expensive home, listed at $50M" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-nashville-ec01abcb-358a-4392-bd52-7724f31dd279.html?utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=newsletter_axioslocal_nashville&amp;stream=top" target="_self">reported</a> earlier this week.</li></ul>

Data: Freddie Mac; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals

The Nashville metro area's real estate market is starting to level off, according to the latest data from Redfin/MLS. 

Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, Nashville-area buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

What's happening: Mortgage rates started to surge in May and have since passed 6%. 

The market has changed significantly since then. 

By the numbers: Median home sales prices dropped from $467,000 to $450,000 from May to September. 

Homes are selling more slowly: They sold in 17 days on average in May. In September, the average number of days on market was 39. 

Fewer homes are selling above the list price. 19% of homes sold above list price in September, compared to 54.6% in May.

In September, 33.4% of listings dropped their asking price, up 12.4 percentage points since May. 

Yes, but: Monthly mortgage payments are significantly more expensive than they were a year ago, meaning that buying a home isn't getting cheaper.

Flash forward: But there are some indications things could shift even more. A forecast from Moody's Analytics says Nashville home prices could fall 20% from their peak prices this summer, driven in part by surging interest rates.

Moody's forecast calls for a 10% price drop nationwide.

The other side: Steve Jolly, president of Greater Nashville Realtors, tells Axios that prices are still up year-over-year, according to his organization's data. They've only fallen from earlier in 2022.

If prices continue to drop, he doesn't think they'll fall that severely. He points to the Great Recession in 2008, when Nashville home prices dipped less than the national average.

"Nashville's always done better than the nation as a whole," Jolly says of previous downturns.

Buying a house in Nashville is easier, but not cheaper

Median home sales prices dropped from $467,000 to $450,000 from May to September.

The Nashville metro area&#x27;s real estate market is starting to level off, according to the latest data from Redfin/MLS. Why it matters: After two-plus years of plummeting inventory and sky-high home prices, Nashville-area buyers have waited a long time for a little relief.

Brianna Crane

Featured stories

Here's what experts say 2023 holds for Nashville real estate

Buying a house in Nashville is easier, but not cheaper

9 must-do fall activities in and around Nashville

Nashville's luxury housing market explodes. Plus: 4 pricy listings

See inside Nashville's most expensive home, listed at $50M